Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 19–23 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 42.2% 40.2–44.2% 39.7–44.7% 39.2–45.2% 38.3–46.2%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 28.2% 26.4–30.0% 25.9–30.6% 25.5–31.0% 24.7–31.9%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 7.4% 6.4–8.5% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.7%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.5–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 5.5% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 163 157–168 156–170 155–171 152–174
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 75 71–80 69–82 68–83 66–86
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 20 17–23 16–24 16–24 15–26
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 18 15–21 15–21 14–22 13–24
Ελληνική Λύση 10 15 12–17 12–19 12–19 10–20
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 10 0–12 0–13 0–13 0–14

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.2% 99.9% Majority
152 0.3% 99.7%  
153 0.6% 99.3%  
154 0.9% 98.7%  
155 2% 98%  
156 2% 96%  
157 4% 93%  
158 5% 89% Last Result
159 6% 84%  
160 8% 78%  
161 10% 71%  
162 9% 61%  
163 10% 52% Median
164 8% 42%  
165 8% 34%  
166 7% 26%  
167 5% 19%  
168 4% 14%  
169 3% 9%  
170 2% 6%  
171 1.5% 4%  
172 0.8% 2%  
173 0.6% 2%  
174 0.4% 0.9%  
175 0.2% 0.5%  
176 0.1% 0.3%  
177 0.1% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.1%  
68 1.5% 98%  
69 3% 97%  
70 4% 94%  
71 5% 90%  
72 8% 86%  
73 9% 78%  
74 9% 68%  
75 11% 60% Median
76 11% 49%  
77 8% 38%  
78 8% 29%  
79 7% 22%  
80 5% 14%  
81 3% 9%  
82 2% 6%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.1%  
86 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 1.2% 99.6%  
16 4% 98%  
17 8% 95%  
18 13% 87%  
19 17% 74%  
20 18% 57% Median
21 16% 39%  
22 11% 24% Last Result
23 7% 13%  
24 4% 6%  
25 1.5% 2%  
26 0.6% 0.9%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.1% 99.8%  
14 3% 98.7%  
15 7% 95% Last Result
16 14% 88%  
17 19% 74%  
18 18% 55% Median
19 15% 37%  
20 11% 22%  
21 6% 11%  
22 3% 5%  
23 1.1% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100% Last Result
11 1.3% 99.4%  
12 9% 98%  
13 9% 89%  
14 21% 80%  
15 22% 59% Median
16 12% 37%  
17 17% 25%  
18 3% 8%  
19 4% 5%  
20 0.8% 1.3%  
21 0.3% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 0% 87%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0% 87%  
7 0% 87%  
8 8% 87%  
9 23% 79% Last Result
10 25% 56% Median
11 17% 31%  
12 9% 14%  
13 4% 5%  
14 1.1% 1.4%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 183 100% 177–188 176–190 174–192 172–195
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 163 99.9% 157–168 156–170 155–171 152–174
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 85 0% 79–90 77–91 75–92 72–95
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 75 0% 71–80 69–82 68–83 66–86

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0.1% 99.9%  
171 0.2% 99.8%  
172 0.4% 99.6%  
173 0.7% 99.3%  
174 1.2% 98.6%  
175 2% 97%  
176 3% 95%  
177 4% 93%  
178 5% 89%  
179 7% 84%  
180 8% 77% Last Result
181 8% 69%  
182 9% 61%  
183 9% 52% Median
184 8% 42%  
185 8% 34%  
186 7% 26%  
187 6% 20%  
188 4% 14%  
189 4% 10%  
190 2% 6%  
191 1.4% 4%  
192 1.0% 3%  
193 0.7% 2%  
194 0.5% 1.1%  
195 0.3% 0.6%  
196 0.2% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.2% 99.9% Majority
152 0.3% 99.7%  
153 0.6% 99.3%  
154 0.9% 98.7%  
155 2% 98%  
156 2% 96%  
157 4% 93%  
158 5% 89% Last Result
159 6% 84%  
160 8% 78%  
161 10% 71%  
162 9% 61%  
163 10% 52% Median
164 8% 42%  
165 8% 34%  
166 7% 26%  
167 5% 19%  
168 4% 14%  
169 3% 9%  
170 2% 6%  
171 1.5% 4%  
172 0.8% 2%  
173 0.6% 2%  
174 0.4% 0.9%  
175 0.2% 0.5%  
176 0.1% 0.3%  
177 0.1% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.5%  
73 0.5% 99.2%  
74 0.7% 98.7%  
75 1.2% 98%  
76 1.4% 97%  
77 2% 95%  
78 3% 93%  
79 4% 90%  
80 5% 86%  
81 6% 81%  
82 7% 75%  
83 8% 68%  
84 9% 60%  
85 10% 51% Median
86 9% 41%  
87 9% 32%  
88 7% 23%  
89 5% 17%  
90 4% 11%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 4%  
93 1.1% 2%  
94 0.7% 1.3%  
95 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.1%  
68 1.5% 98%  
69 3% 97%  
70 4% 94%  
71 5% 90%  
72 8% 86%  
73 9% 78%  
74 9% 68%  
75 11% 60% Median
76 11% 49%  
77 8% 38%  
78 8% 29%  
79 7% 22%  
80 5% 14%  
81 3% 9%  
82 2% 6%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.1%  
86 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations