Opinion Poll by Alco for Open TV, 11–16 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 39.7% 37.7–41.7% 37.2–42.3% 36.7–42.8% 35.8–43.7%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 28.3% 26.5–30.2% 26.0–30.7% 25.6–31.2% 24.8–32.1%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 1.5% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 159 153–164 152–165 151–167 148–169
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 77 73–82 72–84 70–86 68–88
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 20 18–23 17–24 16–25 15–27
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 17 14–20 14–21 13–21 12–23
Ελληνική Λύση 10 13 11–17 11–18 10–18 9–19
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 13 11–15 10–16 10–17 9–18
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 0 0 0 0 0 0–8

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.2% 99.9%  
148 0.3% 99.7%  
149 0.6% 99.4%  
150 1.2% 98.8%  
151 1.5% 98% Majority
152 2% 96%  
153 4% 94%  
154 4% 90%  
155 7% 86%  
156 7% 79%  
157 8% 71%  
158 10% 64% Last Result
159 12% 54% Median
160 6% 42%  
161 9% 36%  
162 10% 26%  
163 4% 16%  
164 4% 13%  
165 4% 8%  
166 2% 5%  
167 1.4% 3%  
168 0.9% 2%  
169 0.3% 0.8%  
170 0.3% 0.5%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0.1% 0.1%  
173 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.7%  
68 0.8% 99.6%  
69 0.4% 98.8%  
70 2% 98%  
71 1.1% 96%  
72 5% 95%  
73 3% 90%  
74 11% 88%  
75 6% 77%  
76 17% 70%  
77 7% 53% Median
78 18% 46%  
79 5% 28%  
80 8% 22%  
81 3% 15%  
82 4% 12%  
83 1.2% 9%  
84 3% 7%  
85 1.4% 4%  
86 1.4% 3% Last Result
87 0.6% 1.3%  
88 0.4% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 0.9% 99.7%  
16 3% 98.8%  
17 6% 96%  
18 9% 90%  
19 14% 81%  
20 19% 67% Median
21 19% 48%  
22 13% 30% Last Result
23 8% 17%  
24 5% 9%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.9% 1.5%  
27 0.4% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 1.0% 99.7%  
13 4% 98.7%  
14 8% 95%  
15 13% 87% Last Result
16 19% 74%  
17 16% 55% Median
18 17% 39%  
19 10% 22%  
20 7% 12%  
21 3% 5%  
22 1.1% 2%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.9%  
10 2% 99.5% Last Result
11 10% 97%  
12 19% 88%  
13 22% 69% Median
14 20% 47%  
15 8% 27%  
16 8% 19%  
17 5% 11%  
18 4% 6%  
19 1.2% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0.2% 99.8%  
9 2% 99.6% Last Result
10 6% 98%  
11 13% 92%  
12 20% 79%  
13 21% 59% Median
14 18% 38%  
15 11% 20%  
16 6% 9%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.8% 1.1%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Πλεύση Ελευθερίας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.0%  
2 0% 1.0%  
3 0% 1.0%  
4 0% 1.0%  
5 0% 1.0%  
6 0% 1.0%  
7 0% 1.0%  
8 0.5% 1.0%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 179 100% 174–184 172–186 171–187 168–190
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 159 98% 153–164 152–165 151–167 148–169
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 90 0% 86–95 84–97 82–98 80–101
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 77 0% 73–82 72–84 70–86 68–88

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
165 0% 100%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.2% 99.8%  
168 0.3% 99.7%  
169 0.7% 99.3%  
170 0.8% 98.6%  
171 1.2% 98%  
172 2% 97%  
173 3% 95%  
174 4% 91%  
175 5% 88%  
176 7% 83%  
177 7% 76%  
178 8% 68%  
179 11% 60% Median
180 12% 49% Last Result
181 10% 37%  
182 7% 28%  
183 7% 20%  
184 4% 14%  
185 4% 9%  
186 2% 6%  
187 1.5% 3%  
188 0.9% 2%  
189 0.4% 1.0%  
190 0.3% 0.6%  
191 0.2% 0.3%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.2% 99.9%  
148 0.3% 99.7%  
149 0.6% 99.4%  
150 1.2% 98.8%  
151 1.5% 98% Majority
152 2% 96%  
153 4% 94%  
154 4% 90%  
155 7% 86%  
156 7% 79%  
157 8% 71%  
158 10% 64% Last Result
159 12% 54% Median
160 6% 42%  
161 9% 36%  
162 10% 26%  
163 4% 16%  
164 4% 13%  
165 4% 8%  
166 2% 5%  
167 1.4% 3%  
168 0.9% 2%  
169 0.3% 0.8%  
170 0.3% 0.5%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0.1% 0.1%  
173 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.4% 99.5%  
81 0.7% 99.1%  
82 1.0% 98%  
83 1.3% 97%  
84 2% 96%  
85 3% 94%  
86 5% 92%  
87 8% 87%  
88 10% 79%  
89 13% 69%  
90 15% 56% Median
91 10% 41%  
92 10% 31%  
93 6% 21%  
94 4% 15%  
95 3% 12% Last Result
96 3% 9%  
97 2% 6%  
98 2% 4%  
99 1.1% 2%  
100 0.7% 1.3%  
101 0.4% 0.6%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.7%  
68 0.8% 99.6%  
69 0.4% 98.8%  
70 2% 98%  
71 1.1% 96%  
72 5% 95%  
73 3% 90%  
74 11% 88%  
75 6% 77%  
76 17% 70%  
77 7% 53% Median
78 18% 46%  
79 5% 28%  
80 8% 22%  
81 3% 15%  
82 4% 12%  
83 1.2% 9%  
84 3% 7%  
85 1.4% 4%  
86 1.4% 3% Last Result
87 0.6% 1.3%  
88 0.4% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations