Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 14–18 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 41.3% 39.3–43.3% 38.7–43.9% 38.3–44.4% 37.3–45.3%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 26.7% 25.0–28.6% 24.5–29.1% 24.1–29.6% 23.3–30.5%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 11.1% 9.9–12.4% 9.6–12.8% 9.3–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.9% 5.9–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 158 153–164 151–165 150–167 148–170
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 70 65–75 64–76 63–77 61–80
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 29 26–33 25–34 24–35 23–36
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 18 16–21 15–22 14–23 13–24
Ελληνική Λύση 10 14 12–17 12–18 11–19 10–20
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 10 8–12 0–13 0–13 0–15

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.2% 99.8%  
148 0.4% 99.6%  
149 0.8% 99.1%  
150 1.4% 98%  
151 3% 97% Majority
152 3% 94%  
153 5% 92%  
154 5% 87%  
155 8% 81%  
156 7% 73%  
157 10% 65%  
158 9% 55% Last Result, Median
159 10% 47%  
160 8% 36%  
161 7% 28%  
162 6% 21%  
163 4% 15%  
164 4% 11%  
165 2% 7%  
166 2% 5%  
167 1.0% 3%  
168 0.8% 2%  
169 0.4% 0.9%  
170 0.3% 0.5%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0.1% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.6%  
62 1.0% 99.1%  
63 2% 98%  
64 3% 96%  
65 5% 93%  
66 6% 89%  
67 8% 83%  
68 8% 75%  
69 10% 67%  
70 10% 57% Median
71 10% 47%  
72 9% 37%  
73 8% 27%  
74 7% 19%  
75 5% 12%  
76 3% 8%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.3%  
80 0.3% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
23 0.9% 99.7%  
24 2% 98.8%  
25 5% 97%  
26 7% 92%  
27 11% 85%  
28 14% 74%  
29 17% 60% Median
30 13% 43%  
31 11% 31%  
32 9% 19%  
33 5% 10%  
34 3% 5%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 1.1%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.2%  
15 6% 97% Last Result
16 12% 91%  
17 17% 79%  
18 19% 63% Median
19 17% 44%  
20 12% 27%  
21 8% 14%  
22 4% 7%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.7% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
11 4% 99.1%  
12 11% 96%  
13 15% 85%  
14 20% 70% Median
15 19% 50%  
16 15% 31%  
17 9% 16%  
18 5% 7%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.6% 0.9%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0% 93%  
7 0% 93%  
8 8% 93%  
9 20% 85% Last Result
10 23% 65% Median
11 21% 41%  
12 13% 21%  
13 5% 8%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 187 100% 182–193 180–195 179–196 177–199
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 158 97% 153–164 151–165 150–167 148–170
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 80 0% 74–85 72–86 71–87 68–90
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 70 0% 65–75 64–76 63–77 61–80

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0.1% 99.9%  
176 0.2% 99.8%  
177 0.4% 99.6%  
178 0.8% 99.2%  
179 1.4% 98%  
180 2% 97% Last Result
181 3% 95%  
182 5% 92%  
183 6% 87%  
184 8% 81%  
185 8% 73%  
186 9% 65%  
187 8% 56% Median
188 9% 47%  
189 8% 39%  
190 7% 31%  
191 6% 24%  
192 5% 18%  
193 4% 13%  
194 3% 9%  
195 2% 6%  
196 2% 4%  
197 1.0% 2%  
198 0.5% 1.2%  
199 0.3% 0.7%  
200 0.2% 0.3%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.2% 99.8%  
148 0.4% 99.6%  
149 0.8% 99.1%  
150 1.4% 98%  
151 3% 97% Majority
152 3% 94%  
153 5% 92%  
154 5% 87%  
155 8% 81%  
156 7% 73%  
157 10% 65%  
158 9% 55% Last Result, Median
159 10% 47%  
160 8% 36%  
161 7% 28%  
162 6% 21%  
163 4% 15%  
164 4% 11%  
165 2% 7%  
166 2% 5%  
167 1.0% 3%  
168 0.8% 2%  
169 0.4% 0.9%  
170 0.3% 0.5%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0.1% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.6%  
69 0.4% 99.3%  
70 0.9% 98.9%  
71 1.4% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 3% 95%  
74 4% 92%  
75 5% 87%  
76 6% 82%  
77 6% 76%  
78 7% 70%  
79 6% 63%  
80 8% 57% Median
81 9% 49%  
82 11% 40%  
83 9% 29%  
84 8% 21%  
85 6% 13%  
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.6% 1.2%  
90 0.3% 0.6%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.6%  
62 1.0% 99.1%  
63 2% 98%  
64 3% 96%  
65 5% 93%  
66 6% 89%  
67 8% 83%  
68 8% 75%  
69 10% 67%  
70 10% 57% Median
71 10% 47%  
72 9% 37%  
73 8% 27%  
74 7% 19%  
75 5% 12%  
76 3% 8%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.3%  
80 0.3% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations