Opinion Poll by Κάπα Research, 13–14 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 39.3% 37.3–41.3% 36.8–41.9% 36.3–42.3% 35.4–43.3%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 27.3% 25.6–29.2% 25.1–29.7% 24.6–30.2% 23.8–31.1%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 13.5% 12.2–14.9% 11.8–15.3% 11.5–15.7% 10.9–16.4%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 154 148–159 147–161 146–163 143–165
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 72 67–77 66–79 65–80 63–83
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 36 32–39 31–41 30–42 29–44
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 19 16–21 15–22 15–23 14–25
Ελληνική Λύση 10 12 9–14 9–14 8–15 0–16
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 9 0–11 0–12 0–13 0–14

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.2% 99.9%  
143 0.3% 99.7%  
144 0.6% 99.4%  
145 1.1% 98.7%  
146 2% 98%  
147 3% 96%  
148 4% 93%  
149 5% 90%  
150 7% 84%  
151 8% 77% Majority
152 9% 70%  
153 10% 60%  
154 9% 50% Median
155 8% 41%  
156 8% 33%  
157 7% 25%  
158 5% 19% Last Result
159 4% 14%  
160 3% 10%  
161 2% 7%  
162 2% 4%  
163 1.0% 3%  
164 0.7% 1.5%  
165 0.4% 0.8%  
166 0.2% 0.4%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0.1% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.6%  
64 1.0% 99.1%  
65 2% 98%  
66 3% 96%  
67 5% 94%  
68 6% 89%  
69 8% 83%  
70 9% 75%  
71 10% 66%  
72 10% 56% Median
73 10% 46%  
74 10% 36%  
75 7% 26%  
76 6% 19%  
77 4% 13%  
78 3% 9%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.0%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1% Last Result
87 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.6%  
30 2% 98.8%  
31 4% 97%  
32 6% 93%  
33 9% 87%  
34 12% 78%  
35 14% 66%  
36 13% 52% Median
37 12% 39%  
38 10% 27%  
39 7% 17%  
40 5% 10%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.4% 3%  
43 0.7% 1.2%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 4% 98% Last Result
16 9% 94%  
17 16% 85%  
18 19% 69%  
19 17% 51% Median
20 14% 33%  
21 10% 20%  
22 6% 10%  
23 2% 4%  
24 1.0% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 0% 99.0%  
2 0% 99.0%  
3 0% 99.0%  
4 0% 99.0%  
5 0% 99.0%  
6 0% 99.0%  
7 0% 99.0%  
8 2% 99.0%  
9 8% 97%  
10 18% 89% Last Result
11 21% 71%  
12 23% 50% Median
13 13% 27%  
14 9% 14%  
15 3% 5%  
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.4%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 0% 84%  
2 0% 84%  
3 0% 84%  
4 0% 84%  
5 0% 84%  
6 0% 84%  
7 0% 84%  
8 12% 84%  
9 26% 72% Last Result, Median
10 23% 46%  
11 14% 23%  
12 6% 9%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.6% 0.8%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 189 100% 184–195 182–197 181–199 178–202
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 154 77% 148–159 147–161 146–163 143–165
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 81 0% 74–86 72–87 70–89 68–91
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 72 0% 67–77 66–79 65–80 63–83

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0.1% 100%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0.2% 99.7%  
179 0.6% 99.5%  
180 0.9% 98.9% Last Result
181 1.4% 98%  
182 2% 97%  
183 3% 95%  
184 4% 91%  
185 6% 87%  
186 7% 81%  
187 8% 74%  
188 9% 66%  
189 10% 57%  
190 8% 47% Median
191 7% 39%  
192 8% 31%  
193 5% 24%  
194 5% 18%  
195 4% 14%  
196 3% 10%  
197 2% 7%  
198 2% 5%  
199 1.4% 3%  
200 0.7% 2%  
201 0.5% 1.3%  
202 0.3% 0.7%  
203 0.2% 0.4%  
204 0.1% 0.2%  
205 0.1% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.2% 99.9%  
143 0.3% 99.7%  
144 0.6% 99.4%  
145 1.1% 98.7%  
146 2% 98%  
147 3% 96%  
148 4% 93%  
149 5% 90%  
150 7% 84%  
151 8% 77% Majority
152 9% 70%  
153 10% 60%  
154 9% 50% Median
155 8% 41%  
156 8% 33%  
157 7% 25%  
158 5% 19% Last Result
159 4% 14%  
160 3% 10%  
161 2% 7%  
162 2% 4%  
163 1.0% 3%  
164 0.7% 1.5%  
165 0.4% 0.8%  
166 0.2% 0.4%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0.1% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.5% 99.5%  
69 0.6% 99.1%  
70 1.0% 98%  
71 1.3% 97%  
72 2% 96%  
73 2% 95%  
74 3% 92%  
75 4% 89%  
76 5% 86%  
77 5% 81%  
78 7% 76%  
79 9% 69%  
80 8% 60%  
81 8% 52% Median
82 11% 44%  
83 9% 34%  
84 7% 25%  
85 5% 17%  
86 4% 12%  
87 3% 8%  
88 2% 5%  
89 1.2% 3%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.6%  
64 1.0% 99.1%  
65 2% 98%  
66 3% 96%  
67 5% 94%  
68 6% 89%  
69 8% 83%  
70 9% 75%  
71 10% 66%  
72 10% 56% Median
73 10% 46%  
74 10% 36%  
75 7% 26%  
76 6% 19%  
77 4% 13%  
78 3% 9%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.0%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1% Last Result
87 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations