Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 13–16 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 38.5% 36.6–40.5% 36.0–41.1% 35.6–41.6% 34.6–42.5%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 22.4% 20.8–24.1% 20.3–24.6% 19.9–25.1% 19.2–25.9%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.5%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 5.4% 4.6–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.6%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 156 150–161 148–163 147–164 144–167
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 61 57–66 56–68 54–69 52–71
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 49 44–53 43–54 42–56 41–58
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 17 15–20 14–21 13–22 12–23
Ελληνική Λύση 10 15 13–18 12–19 12–19 11–21
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 0 0–9 0–9 0–10 0–11

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.2% 99.9%  
144 0.2% 99.7%  
145 0.5% 99.5%  
146 0.8% 99.0%  
147 1.4% 98%  
148 2% 97%  
149 3% 95%  
150 4% 91%  
151 5% 88% Majority
152 7% 82%  
153 7% 76%  
154 9% 68%  
155 8% 60%  
156 10% 51% Median
157 9% 42%  
158 8% 33% Last Result
159 6% 25%  
160 5% 19%  
161 5% 14%  
162 3% 9%  
163 2% 6%  
164 1.4% 3%  
165 0.9% 2%  
166 0.5% 1.1%  
167 0.3% 0.6%  
168 0.1% 0.3%  
169 0.1% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.7%  
53 0.6% 99.4%  
54 1.3% 98.8%  
55 2% 97%  
56 3% 95%  
57 5% 92%  
58 7% 87%  
59 10% 80%  
60 10% 69%  
61 11% 60% Median
62 10% 49%  
63 11% 38%  
64 8% 28%  
65 6% 19%  
66 4% 13%  
67 3% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.4% 3%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.8%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 0.8% 99.5%  
42 1.4% 98.7%  
43 3% 97%  
44 5% 94%  
45 7% 90%  
46 8% 83%  
47 11% 75%  
48 11% 63%  
49 11% 53% Median
50 11% 41%  
51 9% 30%  
52 6% 20%  
53 6% 14%  
54 3% 8%  
55 2% 5%  
56 1.3% 3%  
57 0.7% 1.3%  
58 0.3% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.4%  
14 5% 97%  
15 11% 92% Last Result
16 15% 81%  
17 19% 65% Median
18 18% 46%  
19 13% 28%  
20 8% 15%  
21 4% 7%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.7% 1.1%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
11 2% 99.5%  
12 5% 98%  
13 12% 92%  
14 17% 80%  
15 21% 63% Median
16 18% 42%  
17 12% 24%  
18 7% 12%  
19 3% 5%  
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.5% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Median
1 0% 19%  
2 0% 19%  
3 0% 19%  
4 0% 19%  
5 0% 19%  
6 0% 19%  
7 0% 19%  
8 7% 19%  
9 8% 12% Last Result
10 3% 4%  
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 204 100% 198–210 196–211 195–213 192–215
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 156 88% 150–161 148–163 147–164 144–167
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 63 0% 58–69 57–71 55–73 53–76
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 61 0% 57–66 56–68 54–69 52–71

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100% Last Result
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 100%  
183 0% 100%  
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 100%  
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 100%  
189 0% 100%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0.2% 99.8%  
192 0.2% 99.7%  
193 0.4% 99.4%  
194 0.9% 99.0%  
195 1.5% 98%  
196 2% 97%  
197 2% 95%  
198 3% 92%  
199 4% 89%  
200 5% 86%  
201 6% 81%  
202 8% 74%  
203 8% 67%  
204 9% 58%  
205 8% 49% Median
206 7% 41%  
207 8% 34%  
208 7% 26%  
209 6% 19%  
210 5% 13%  
211 3% 8%  
212 2% 5%  
213 1.2% 3%  
214 1.0% 2%  
215 0.5% 1.0%  
216 0.3% 0.5%  
217 0.1% 0.2%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.2% 99.9%  
144 0.2% 99.7%  
145 0.5% 99.5%  
146 0.8% 99.0%  
147 1.4% 98%  
148 2% 97%  
149 3% 95%  
150 4% 91%  
151 5% 88% Majority
152 7% 82%  
153 7% 76%  
154 9% 68%  
155 8% 60%  
156 10% 51% Median
157 9% 42%  
158 8% 33% Last Result
159 6% 25%  
160 5% 19%  
161 5% 14%  
162 3% 9%  
163 2% 6%  
164 1.4% 3%  
165 0.9% 2%  
166 0.5% 1.1%  
167 0.3% 0.6%  
168 0.1% 0.3%  
169 0.1% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 0.8% 99.3%  
55 1.4% 98.5%  
56 2% 97%  
57 4% 95%  
58 5% 91%  
59 7% 86%  
60 8% 78%  
61 9% 71% Median
62 9% 62%  
63 10% 53%  
64 8% 43%  
65 7% 34%  
66 5% 28%  
67 5% 22%  
68 4% 17%  
69 4% 13%  
70 3% 9%  
71 2% 6%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.1% 3%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.9%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.7%  
53 0.6% 99.4%  
54 1.3% 98.8%  
55 2% 97%  
56 3% 95%  
57 5% 92%  
58 7% 87%  
59 10% 80%  
60 10% 69%  
61 11% 60% Median
62 10% 49%  
63 11% 38%  
64 8% 28%  
65 6% 19%  
66 4% 13%  
67 3% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.4% 3%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.8%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations