Opinion Poll by Opinion Poll for tomanifesto.gr, 7–12 February 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 38.5% | 36.8–40.3% | 36.3–40.8% | 35.9–41.3% | 35.0–42.1% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 24.2% | 22.7–25.8% | 22.3–26.3% | 21.9–26.7% | 21.2–27.5% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 17.5% | 16.2–19.0% | 15.8–19.4% | 15.5–19.7% | 14.9–20.4% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.1–6.8% | 4.8–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.3–7.8% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.2–5.8% | 4.0–6.0% | 3.8–6.2% | 3.5–6.7% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.5–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.1–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 153 | 148–158 | 147–160 | 145–161 | 143–164 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 65 | 61–69 | 59–71 | 58–72 | 56–74 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 47 | 43–51 | 42–52 | 41–53 | 40–55 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 16 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 12–19 | 12–21 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 13 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 | 9–18 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 9 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–12 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 145 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 146 | 2% | 97% | |
| 147 | 5% | 95% | |
| 148 | 4% | 91% | |
| 149 | 7% | 87% | |
| 150 | 7% | 80% | |
| 151 | 11% | 73% | Majority |
| 152 | 8% | 62% | |
| 153 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 154 | 8% | 43% | |
| 155 | 9% | 35% | |
| 156 | 6% | 25% | |
| 157 | 6% | 19% | |
| 158 | 4% | 13% | Last Result |
| 159 | 4% | 10% | |
| 160 | 2% | 6% | |
| 161 | 2% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 58 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 59 | 3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 4% | 94% | |
| 61 | 6% | 90% | |
| 62 | 8% | 84% | |
| 63 | 11% | 75% | |
| 64 | 12% | 64% | |
| 65 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 66 | 11% | 41% | |
| 67 | 9% | 31% | |
| 68 | 8% | 22% | |
| 69 | 5% | 14% | |
| 70 | 4% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 42 | 4% | 97% | |
| 43 | 6% | 94% | |
| 44 | 9% | 88% | |
| 45 | 11% | 79% | |
| 46 | 14% | 67% | |
| 47 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 48 | 13% | 41% | |
| 49 | 9% | 28% | |
| 50 | 7% | 18% | |
| 51 | 5% | 11% | |
| 52 | 3% | 6% | |
| 53 | 2% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 6% | 97% | |
| 14 | 14% | 91% | |
| 15 | 21% | 77% | Last Result |
| 16 | 23% | 56% | Median |
| 17 | 18% | 33% | |
| 18 | 9% | 16% | |
| 19 | 4% | 7% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 11 | 10% | 96% | |
| 12 | 19% | 85% | |
| 13 | 24% | 66% | Median |
| 14 | 21% | 42% | |
| 15 | 12% | 21% | |
| 16 | 6% | 9% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 32% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 68% | |
| 2 | 0% | 68% | |
| 3 | 0% | 68% | |
| 4 | 0% | 68% | |
| 5 | 0% | 68% | |
| 6 | 0% | 68% | |
| 7 | 0% | 68% | |
| 8 | 15% | 68% | |
| 9 | 28% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 17% | 26% | |
| 11 | 7% | 9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 199 | 100% | 194–206 | 193–208 | 192–209 | 189–211 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 153 | 73% | 148–158 | 147–160 | 145–161 | 143–164 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 72 | 0% | 65–77 | 63–78 | 62–79 | 60–81 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 59–71 | 58–72 | 56–74 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0% | 100% | |
| 182 | 0% | 100% | |
| 183 | 0% | 100% | |
| 184 | 0% | 100% | |
| 185 | 0% | 100% | |
| 186 | 0% | 100% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 190 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 191 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 192 | 2% | 98% | |
| 193 | 3% | 96% | |
| 194 | 4% | 93% | |
| 195 | 6% | 89% | |
| 196 | 7% | 83% | |
| 197 | 9% | 76% | |
| 198 | 8% | 68% | |
| 199 | 11% | 60% | |
| 200 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 201 | 8% | 42% | |
| 202 | 7% | 34% | |
| 203 | 6% | 27% | |
| 204 | 6% | 21% | |
| 205 | 4% | 15% | |
| 206 | 4% | 11% | |
| 207 | 2% | 8% | |
| 208 | 2% | 5% | |
| 209 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 210 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 211 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 212 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 145 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 146 | 2% | 97% | |
| 147 | 5% | 95% | |
| 148 | 4% | 91% | |
| 149 | 7% | 87% | |
| 150 | 7% | 80% | |
| 151 | 11% | 73% | Majority |
| 152 | 8% | 62% | |
| 153 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 154 | 8% | 43% | |
| 155 | 9% | 35% | |
| 156 | 6% | 25% | |
| 157 | 6% | 19% | |
| 158 | 4% | 13% | Last Result |
| 159 | 4% | 10% | |
| 160 | 2% | 6% | |
| 161 | 2% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 2% | 96% | |
| 64 | 3% | 94% | |
| 65 | 4% | 91% | |
| 66 | 5% | 87% | |
| 67 | 5% | 83% | |
| 68 | 6% | 78% | |
| 69 | 6% | 72% | |
| 70 | 7% | 66% | |
| 71 | 8% | 59% | |
| 72 | 9% | 51% | |
| 73 | 9% | 42% | |
| 74 | 8% | 33% | Median |
| 75 | 7% | 24% | |
| 76 | 5% | 17% | |
| 77 | 5% | 12% | |
| 78 | 3% | 7% | |
| 79 | 2% | 4% | |
| 80 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 58 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 59 | 3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 4% | 94% | |
| 61 | 6% | 90% | |
| 62 | 8% | 84% | |
| 63 | 11% | 75% | |
| 64 | 12% | 64% | |
| 65 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 66 | 11% | 41% | |
| 67 | 9% | 31% | |
| 68 | 8% | 22% | |
| 69 | 5% | 14% | |
| 70 | 4% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinion Poll
- Commissioner(s): tomanifesto.gr
- Fieldwork period: 7–12 February 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1251
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.78%