Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 7–11 May 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 36.9% 35.0–38.9% 34.4–39.4% 34.0–39.9% 33.1–40.9%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 25.1% 23.5–27.0% 23.0–27.5% 22.6–27.9% 21.8–28.8%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 15.5% 14.1–17.0% 13.7–17.5% 13.4–17.8% 12.7–18.6%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.1–8.1% 4.7–8.7%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.7% 3.6–7.2%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.5% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 150 144–155 143–157 142–159 139–161
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 68 63–73 62–74 61–76 59–78
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 42 38–46 37–47 36–48 34–51
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 17 15–20 14–21 14–22 13–23
Ελληνική Λύση 10 14 12–17 11–17 11–18 10–19
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 9 0–12 0–12 0–13 0–14

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0.1% 100%  
138 0.2% 99.9%  
139 0.3% 99.7%  
140 0.6% 99.4%  
141 1.0% 98.8%  
142 2% 98%  
143 3% 96%  
144 4% 94%  
145 5% 90%  
146 6% 85%  
147 8% 79%  
148 9% 71%  
149 9% 62%  
150 10% 52% Median
151 8% 43% Majority
152 8% 34%  
153 6% 26%  
154 6% 20%  
155 4% 14%  
156 3% 10%  
157 2% 7%  
158 2% 4% Last Result
159 1.0% 3%  
160 0.7% 2%  
161 0.4% 0.9%  
162 0.2% 0.5%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.6%  
60 0.9% 99.1%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 96%  
63 4% 94%  
64 6% 89%  
65 8% 84%  
66 9% 76%  
67 10% 67%  
68 10% 56% Median
69 11% 47%  
70 10% 36%  
71 8% 26%  
72 6% 19%  
73 5% 13%  
74 3% 8%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.4% 3%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.9%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.5%  
36 2% 98.6%  
37 4% 97%  
38 6% 93%  
39 9% 88%  
40 11% 79%  
41 12% 69%  
42 12% 57% Median
43 13% 44%  
44 10% 32%  
45 8% 22%  
46 6% 14%  
47 4% 8%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.2% 2%  
50 0.6% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.5%  
14 4% 98%  
15 10% 94% Last Result
16 15% 83%  
17 18% 68% Median
18 17% 50%  
19 15% 32%  
20 9% 18%  
21 5% 9%  
22 2% 4%  
23 1.0% 1.5%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 2% 99.7% Last Result
11 5% 98%  
12 13% 92%  
13 19% 80%  
14 20% 61% Median
15 18% 40%  
16 12% 23%  
17 6% 11%  
18 3% 4%  
19 1.1% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 0% 82%  
2 0% 82%  
3 0% 82%  
4 0% 82%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0% 82%  
7 0% 82%  
8 8% 82%  
9 25% 74% Last Result, Median
10 23% 49%  
11 15% 26%  
12 7% 11%  
13 2% 4%  
14 0.8% 1.1%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 192 100% 186–198 185–200 183–201 181–205
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 150 43% 144–155 143–157 142–159 139–161
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 77 0% 70–82 68–83 66–85 63–87
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 68 0% 63–73 62–74 61–76 59–78

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0.1% 100%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
181 0.4% 99.6%  
182 0.6% 99.2%  
183 1.3% 98.6%  
184 2% 97%  
185 3% 95%  
186 4% 93%  
187 6% 89%  
188 6% 83%  
189 8% 78%  
190 9% 70%  
191 9% 61%  
192 9% 52% Median
193 7% 43%  
194 8% 36%  
195 6% 28%  
196 5% 22%  
197 5% 16%  
198 4% 12%  
199 2% 8%  
200 2% 6%  
201 1.3% 4%  
202 0.8% 2%  
203 0.6% 2%  
204 0.4% 1.0%  
205 0.3% 0.6%  
206 0.2% 0.3%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0.1% 100%  
138 0.2% 99.9%  
139 0.3% 99.7%  
140 0.6% 99.4%  
141 1.0% 98.8%  
142 2% 98%  
143 3% 96%  
144 4% 94%  
145 5% 90%  
146 6% 85%  
147 8% 79%  
148 9% 71%  
149 9% 62%  
150 10% 52% Median
151 8% 43% Majority
152 8% 34%  
153 6% 26%  
154 6% 20%  
155 4% 14%  
156 3% 10%  
157 2% 7%  
158 2% 4% Last Result
159 1.0% 3%  
160 0.7% 2%  
161 0.4% 0.9%  
162 0.2% 0.5%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.7%  
64 0.4% 99.5%  
65 0.7% 99.1%  
66 1.0% 98%  
67 1.2% 97%  
68 2% 96%  
69 2% 94%  
70 3% 92%  
71 4% 89%  
72 4% 85%  
73 6% 81%  
74 7% 75%  
75 7% 68%  
76 9% 61%  
77 9% 52% Median
78 9% 43%  
79 9% 34%  
80 7% 25%  
81 5% 18%  
82 4% 13%  
83 3% 8%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.3% 3%  
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.6%  
60 0.9% 99.1%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 96%  
63 4% 94%  
64 6% 89%  
65 8% 84%  
66 9% 76%  
67 10% 67%  
68 10% 56% Median
69 11% 47%  
70 10% 36%  
71 8% 26%  
72 6% 19%  
73 5% 13%  
74 3% 8%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.4% 3%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.9%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations