Opinion Poll by Opinion Poll for tomanifesto.gr, 11–13 May 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 36.7% 34.7–38.7% 34.2–39.2% 33.7–39.7% 32.8–40.7%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 25.6% 23.9–27.4% 23.4–27.9% 23.0–28.4% 22.2–29.3%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.1–16.9% 12.8–17.2% 12.2–18.0%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 4.9–8.0% 4.6–8.5%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 1.5% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 151 145–156 143–158 142–160 139–162
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 70 65–75 64–77 62–78 60–81
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 41 37–45 36–46 35–47 33–49
Ελληνική Λύση 10 17 15–20 14–21 14–22 12–23
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 15 13–18 12–19 12–20 11–21
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 9 0–11 0–11 0–12 0–13
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 0 0 0 0 0 0

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.3% 99.7%  
140 0.6% 99.5%  
141 1.0% 98.9%  
142 2% 98%  
143 2% 96%  
144 3% 94%  
145 4% 91%  
146 6% 87%  
147 8% 81%  
148 6% 73%  
149 8% 67%  
150 9% 59%  
151 9% 50% Median, Majority
152 10% 42%  
153 5% 32%  
154 7% 27%  
155 5% 19%  
156 5% 14%  
157 4% 10%  
158 2% 6% Last Result
159 1.3% 4%  
160 1.2% 3%  
161 0.6% 1.5%  
162 0.5% 0.9%  
163 0.2% 0.4%  
164 0.1% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.6% 99.4%  
62 1.5% 98.8%  
63 2% 97%  
64 3% 95%  
65 4% 92%  
66 6% 88%  
67 6% 81%  
68 9% 75%  
69 9% 66%  
70 10% 57% Median
71 9% 47%  
72 9% 38%  
73 7% 29%  
74 7% 22%  
75 6% 15%  
76 3% 10%  
77 2% 6%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.0%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.7%  
34 1.1% 99.3%  
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 96%  
37 6% 93%  
38 8% 87%  
39 12% 78%  
40 11% 66%  
41 13% 55% Median
42 12% 43%  
43 11% 31%  
44 7% 20%  
45 5% 13%  
46 4% 8%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.9%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.4%  
14 6% 98%  
15 9% 92%  
16 14% 82%  
17 22% 68% Median
18 14% 46%  
19 15% 32%  
20 7% 16%  
21 6% 9%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.9% 1.4%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 2% 99.5%  
12 5% 98%  
13 10% 93%  
14 18% 83%  
15 21% 64% Last Result, Median
16 15% 43%  
17 17% 28%  
18 5% 11%  
19 4% 7%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.6% 0.9%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100%  
1 0% 57%  
2 0% 57%  
3 0% 57%  
4 0% 57%  
5 0% 57%  
6 0% 57%  
7 0% 57%  
8 6% 57%  
9 25% 50% Last Result, Median
10 14% 26%  
11 8% 12%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.7% 0.9%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Πλεύση Ελευθερίας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 192 100% 185–198 184–200 182–201 179–204
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 151 50% 145–156 143–158 142–160 139–162
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 76 0% 69–82 68–84 66–85 64–88
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 70 0% 65–75 64–77 62–78 60–81

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0% 100%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0.2% 99.9%  
179 0.3% 99.7%  
180 0.5% 99.4% Last Result
181 0.8% 99.0%  
182 1.0% 98%  
183 2% 97%  
184 3% 95%  
185 4% 93%  
186 5% 89%  
187 6% 83%  
188 5% 78%  
189 9% 73%  
190 7% 64%  
191 7% 57%  
192 7% 50% Median
193 8% 43%  
194 6% 35%  
195 8% 28%  
196 5% 21%  
197 3% 16%  
198 5% 13%  
199 3% 8%  
200 2% 5%  
201 1.2% 3%  
202 0.7% 2%  
203 0.4% 1.3%  
204 0.4% 0.8%  
205 0.2% 0.4%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0.1% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.3% 99.7%  
140 0.6% 99.5%  
141 1.0% 98.9%  
142 2% 98%  
143 2% 96%  
144 3% 94%  
145 4% 91%  
146 6% 87%  
147 8% 81%  
148 6% 73%  
149 8% 67%  
150 9% 59%  
151 9% 50% Median, Majority
152 10% 42%  
153 5% 32%  
154 7% 27%  
155 5% 19%  
156 5% 14%  
157 4% 10%  
158 2% 6% Last Result
159 1.3% 4%  
160 1.2% 3%  
161 0.6% 1.5%  
162 0.5% 0.9%  
163 0.2% 0.4%  
164 0.1% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.5% 99.5%  
65 0.7% 99.1%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 3% 95%  
69 4% 92%  
70 5% 88%  
71 5% 84%  
72 6% 79%  
73 7% 73%  
74 7% 66%  
75 9% 60%  
76 6% 51%  
77 7% 44%  
78 7% 37%  
79 6% 30% Median
80 6% 24%  
81 5% 18%  
82 5% 13%  
83 3% 8%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.3% 3%  
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.1%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.6% 99.4%  
62 1.5% 98.8%  
63 2% 97%  
64 3% 95%  
65 4% 92%  
66 6% 88%  
67 6% 81%  
68 9% 75%  
69 9% 66%  
70 10% 57% Median
71 9% 47%  
72 9% 38%  
73 7% 29%  
74 7% 22%  
75 6% 15%  
76 3% 10%  
77 2% 6%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.0%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations