Opinion Poll by Κάπα Research, 27 May–1 June 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 37.6% 35.7–39.6% 35.2–40.2% 34.7–40.7% 33.8–41.7%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 28.1% 26.3–30.0% 25.8–30.5% 25.4–31.0% 24.6–31.9%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 14.1% 12.8–15.7% 12.4–16.1% 12.1–16.4% 11.5–17.2%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 7.2% 6.2–8.3% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–8.9% 5.3–9.5%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 149 144–155 143–157 141–158 139–161
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 74 69–79 68–81 67–82 65–85
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 37 34–41 33–43 32–44 30–45
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 19 16–22 16–23 15–24 14–25
Ελληνική Λύση 10 13 10–15 10–16 9–16 8–18
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 9 0–11 0–11 0–12 0–13

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.2% 99.8%  
139 0.4% 99.6%  
140 0.7% 99.2%  
141 1.4% 98%  
142 2% 97%  
143 3% 95%  
144 4% 92%  
145 5% 88%  
146 7% 83%  
147 8% 76%  
148 9% 68%  
149 10% 59% Median
150 9% 49%  
151 9% 40% Majority
152 8% 31%  
153 6% 23%  
154 5% 17%  
155 4% 12%  
156 3% 8%  
157 2% 5%  
158 1.2% 3% Last Result
159 0.8% 2%  
160 0.6% 1.4%  
161 0.3% 0.7%  
162 0.2% 0.4%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.5%  
66 1.0% 99.0%  
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 96%  
69 4% 94%  
70 6% 89%  
71 7% 84%  
72 9% 77%  
73 10% 68%  
74 10% 58% Median
75 11% 48%  
76 9% 37%  
77 8% 28%  
78 6% 21%  
79 5% 14%  
80 3% 9%  
81 2% 6%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.6% 1.1%  
85 0.3% 0.6%  
86 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 1.0% 99.4%  
32 2% 98%  
33 5% 96%  
34 7% 92%  
35 9% 84%  
36 13% 75%  
37 13% 62% Median
38 13% 49%  
39 11% 37%  
40 9% 26%  
41 7% 17%  
42 5% 10%  
43 3% 5%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.6% 1.1%  
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.8% 99.8%  
15 3% 98.9% Last Result
16 6% 96%  
17 13% 90%  
18 16% 77%  
19 19% 60% Median
20 15% 42%  
21 12% 26%  
22 7% 15%  
23 4% 7%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.7% 1.1%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0.4% 99.8%  
9 3% 99.5%  
10 8% 97% Last Result
11 17% 89%  
12 22% 72%  
13 21% 50% Median
14 14% 29%  
15 8% 15%  
16 4% 6%  
17 1.4% 2%  
18 0.5% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100%  
1 0% 73%  
2 0% 73%  
3 0% 73%  
4 0% 73%  
5 0% 73%  
6 0% 73%  
7 0% 73%  
8 14% 73%  
9 28% 59% Last Result, Median
10 18% 31%  
11 8% 13%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.9% 1.2%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 187 100% 181–193 180–195 178–196 176–200
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 149 40% 144–155 143–157 141–158 139–161
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 82 0% 75–87 73–89 71–90 69–92
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 74 0% 69–79 68–81 67–82 65–85

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0.1% 100%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0.2% 99.8%  
176 0.4% 99.6%  
177 0.7% 99.1%  
178 1.2% 98%  
179 2% 97%  
180 3% 95% Last Result
181 4% 93%  
182 5% 88%  
183 6% 83%  
184 7% 77%  
185 7% 70%  
186 8% 63% Median
187 10% 54%  
188 8% 44%  
189 8% 36%  
190 6% 28%  
191 5% 23%  
192 4% 17%  
193 4% 13%  
194 4% 9%  
195 2% 6%  
196 1.3% 4%  
197 0.9% 2%  
198 0.5% 1.5%  
199 0.4% 1.0%  
200 0.3% 0.5%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.2% 99.8%  
139 0.4% 99.6%  
140 0.7% 99.2%  
141 1.4% 98%  
142 2% 97%  
143 3% 95%  
144 4% 92%  
145 5% 88%  
146 7% 83%  
147 8% 76%  
148 9% 68%  
149 10% 59% Median
150 9% 49%  
151 9% 40% Majority
152 8% 31%  
153 6% 23%  
154 5% 17%  
155 4% 12%  
156 3% 8%  
157 2% 5%  
158 1.2% 3% Last Result
159 0.8% 2%  
160 0.6% 1.4%  
161 0.3% 0.7%  
162 0.2% 0.4%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.5%  
70 0.7% 99.1%  
71 1.1% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 3% 93%  
75 3% 90%  
76 4% 87%  
77 5% 83%  
78 5% 78%  
79 6% 73%  
80 7% 66%  
81 8% 59%  
82 8% 51%  
83 9% 42% Median
84 8% 34%  
85 7% 25%  
86 6% 19%  
87 4% 13%  
88 3% 9%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.4% 3%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.4% 0.9%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
96 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.5%  
66 1.0% 99.0%  
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 96%  
69 4% 94%  
70 6% 89%  
71 7% 84%  
72 9% 77%  
73 10% 68%  
74 10% 58% Median
75 11% 48%  
76 9% 37%  
77 8% 28%  
78 6% 21%  
79 5% 14%  
80 3% 9%  
81 2% 6%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.6% 1.1%  
85 0.3% 0.6%  
86 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations