Opinion Poll by Opinion Poll for tomanifesto.gr, 12–15 July 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 36.9% | 35.0–38.9% | 34.5–39.5% | 34.0–40.0% | 33.1–40.9% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 26.6% | 24.9–28.4% | 24.4–29.0% | 24.0–29.4% | 23.2–30.3% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 13.8% | 12.5–15.3% | 12.1–15.7% | 11.8–16.1% | 11.2–16.8% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.2–8.1% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.5% |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 152 | 146–158 | 145–159 | 143–161 | 141–164 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 74 | 69–78 | 67–80 | 66–81 | 63–84 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 38 | 34–42 | 33–43 | 32–44 | 31–47 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 16 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 13–21 | 12–22 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 16 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 12–20 | 11–21 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 0 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–12 |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 143 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 144 | 2% | 97% | |
| 145 | 3% | 95% | |
| 146 | 3% | 93% | |
| 147 | 5% | 89% | |
| 148 | 7% | 84% | |
| 149 | 5% | 77% | |
| 150 | 8% | 72% | |
| 151 | 8% | 64% | Majority |
| 152 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 153 | 9% | 46% | |
| 154 | 7% | 36% | |
| 155 | 7% | 30% | |
| 156 | 5% | 23% | |
| 157 | 7% | 18% | |
| 158 | 3% | 11% | Last Result |
| 159 | 3% | 8% | |
| 160 | 2% | 5% | |
| 161 | 2% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 3% | 96% | |
| 68 | 3% | 93% | |
| 69 | 6% | 90% | |
| 70 | 8% | 84% | |
| 71 | 7% | 76% | |
| 72 | 8% | 69% | |
| 73 | 10% | 60% | |
| 74 | 11% | 50% | Median |
| 75 | 10% | 39% | |
| 76 | 7% | 29% | |
| 77 | 6% | 22% | |
| 78 | 6% | 16% | |
| 79 | 3% | 10% | |
| 80 | 2% | 6% | |
| 81 | 2% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 33 | 3% | 97% | |
| 34 | 6% | 95% | |
| 35 | 7% | 89% | |
| 36 | 10% | 82% | |
| 37 | 12% | 72% | |
| 38 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 39 | 13% | 47% | |
| 40 | 11% | 33% | |
| 41 | 8% | 23% | |
| 42 | 6% | 15% | |
| 43 | 4% | 9% | |
| 44 | 3% | 5% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 5% | 98% | |
| 14 | 11% | 93% | |
| 15 | 17% | 83% | Last Result |
| 16 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 17 | 18% | 48% | |
| 18 | 13% | 30% | |
| 19 | 8% | 17% | |
| 20 | 5% | 9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 13 | 9% | 95% | |
| 14 | 14% | 86% | |
| 15 | 20% | 72% | |
| 16 | 18% | 51% | Median |
| 17 | 15% | 34% | |
| 18 | 11% | 19% | |
| 19 | 5% | 8% | |
| 20 | 3% | 4% | |
| 21 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 57% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 43% | |
| 2 | 0% | 43% | |
| 3 | 0% | 43% | |
| 4 | 0% | 43% | |
| 5 | 0% | 43% | |
| 6 | 0% | 43% | |
| 7 | 0% | 43% | |
| 8 | 7% | 43% | |
| 9 | 21% | 35% | Last Result |
| 10 | 10% | 15% | |
| 11 | 3% | 5% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 190 | 100% | 184–197 | 182–198 | 181–200 | 178–203 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 152 | 64% | 146–158 | 145–159 | 143–161 | 141–164 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 78 | 0% | 71–84 | 70–85 | 68–87 | 66–90 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 74 | 0% | 69–78 | 67–80 | 66–81 | 63–84 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 175 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 179 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 180 | 0.7% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 181 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 182 | 2% | 96% | |
| 183 | 3% | 95% | |
| 184 | 3% | 92% | |
| 185 | 4% | 88% | |
| 186 | 6% | 85% | |
| 187 | 9% | 79% | |
| 188 | 7% | 70% | |
| 189 | 8% | 63% | |
| 190 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 191 | 7% | 50% | |
| 192 | 9% | 42% | |
| 193 | 5% | 34% | |
| 194 | 7% | 29% | |
| 195 | 8% | 21% | |
| 196 | 3% | 13% | |
| 197 | 3% | 11% | |
| 198 | 3% | 7% | |
| 199 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 200 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 201 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 202 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 143 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 144 | 2% | 97% | |
| 145 | 3% | 95% | |
| 146 | 3% | 93% | |
| 147 | 5% | 89% | |
| 148 | 7% | 84% | |
| 149 | 5% | 77% | |
| 150 | 8% | 72% | |
| 151 | 8% | 64% | Majority |
| 152 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 153 | 9% | 46% | |
| 154 | 7% | 36% | |
| 155 | 7% | 30% | |
| 156 | 5% | 23% | |
| 157 | 7% | 18% | |
| 158 | 3% | 11% | Last Result |
| 159 | 3% | 8% | |
| 160 | 2% | 5% | |
| 161 | 2% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 68 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 70 | 3% | 96% | |
| 71 | 5% | 92% | |
| 72 | 5% | 88% | |
| 73 | 4% | 83% | |
| 74 | 8% | 78% | Median |
| 75 | 10% | 70% | |
| 76 | 4% | 60% | |
| 77 | 6% | 56% | |
| 78 | 10% | 50% | |
| 79 | 6% | 40% | |
| 80 | 5% | 34% | |
| 81 | 5% | 29% | |
| 82 | 7% | 24% | |
| 83 | 5% | 17% | |
| 84 | 3% | 12% | |
| 85 | 4% | 9% | |
| 86 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 87 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 88 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 3% | 96% | |
| 68 | 3% | 93% | |
| 69 | 6% | 90% | |
| 70 | 8% | 84% | |
| 71 | 7% | 76% | |
| 72 | 8% | 69% | |
| 73 | 10% | 60% | |
| 74 | 11% | 50% | Median |
| 75 | 10% | 39% | |
| 76 | 7% | 29% | |
| 77 | 6% | 22% | |
| 78 | 6% | 16% | |
| 79 | 3% | 10% | |
| 80 | 2% | 6% | |
| 81 | 2% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinion Poll
- Commissioner(s): tomanifesto.gr
- Fieldwork period: 12–15 July 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1015
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.30%