Opinion Poll by Opinion Poll for tomanifesto.gr, 12–15 July 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 36.9% 35.0–38.9% 34.5–39.5% 34.0–40.0% 33.1–40.9%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 26.6% 24.9–28.4% 24.4–29.0% 24.0–29.4% 23.2–30.3%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 13.8% 12.5–15.3% 12.1–15.7% 11.8–16.1% 11.2–16.8%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 5.9% 5.1–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 5.6% 4.8–6.7% 4.6–7.0% 4.4–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 1.5% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 152 146–158 145–159 143–161 141–164
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 74 69–78 67–80 66–81 63–84
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 38 34–42 33–43 32–44 31–47
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 16 14–19 13–20 13–21 12–22
Ελληνική Λύση 10 16 13–18 13–19 12–20 11–21
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 0 0–10 0–10 0–11 0–12
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 0 0 0 0 0 0

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0.1% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.2% 99.8%  
141 0.4% 99.6%  
142 0.8% 99.2%  
143 1.2% 98%  
144 2% 97%  
145 3% 95%  
146 3% 93%  
147 5% 89%  
148 7% 84%  
149 5% 77%  
150 8% 72%  
151 8% 64% Majority
152 10% 56% Median
153 9% 46%  
154 7% 36%  
155 7% 30%  
156 5% 23%  
157 7% 18%  
158 3% 11% Last Result
159 3% 8%  
160 2% 5%  
161 2% 3%  
162 0.7% 2%  
163 0.4% 1.0%  
164 0.2% 0.5%  
165 0.2% 0.3%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.4%  
65 0.8% 99.0%  
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 96%  
68 3% 93%  
69 6% 90%  
70 8% 84%  
71 7% 76%  
72 8% 69%  
73 10% 60%  
74 11% 50% Median
75 10% 39%  
76 7% 29%  
77 6% 22%  
78 6% 16%  
79 3% 10%  
80 2% 6%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.5% 1.2%  
84 0.3% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.6% 99.7%  
32 2% 99.0%  
33 3% 97%  
34 6% 95%  
35 7% 89%  
36 10% 82%  
37 12% 72%  
38 13% 60% Median
39 13% 47%  
40 11% 33%  
41 8% 23%  
42 6% 15%  
43 4% 9%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.1% 2%  
46 0.7% 1.2%  
47 0.3% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0.4% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.6%  
13 5% 98%  
14 11% 93%  
15 17% 83% Last Result
16 18% 66% Median
17 18% 48%  
18 13% 30%  
19 8% 17%  
20 5% 9%  
21 2% 3%  
22 1.0% 1.4%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100% Last Result
11 1.0% 99.8%  
12 3% 98.8%  
13 9% 95%  
14 14% 86%  
15 20% 72%  
16 18% 51% Median
17 15% 34%  
18 11% 19%  
19 5% 8%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.9% 1.3%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 57% 100% Median
1 0% 43%  
2 0% 43%  
3 0% 43%  
4 0% 43%  
5 0% 43%  
6 0% 43%  
7 0% 43%  
8 7% 43%  
9 21% 35% Last Result
10 10% 15%  
11 3% 5%  
12 1.1% 1.4%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Πλεύση Ελευθερίας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 190 100% 184–197 182–198 181–200 178–203
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 152 64% 146–158 145–159 143–161 141–164
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 78 0% 71–84 70–85 68–87 66–90
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 74 0% 69–78 67–80 66–81 63–84

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0.1% 100%  
176 0.1% 99.9%  
177 0.2% 99.8%  
178 0.5% 99.7%  
179 0.6% 99.2%  
180 0.7% 98.6% Last Result
181 1.4% 98%  
182 2% 96%  
183 3% 95%  
184 3% 92%  
185 4% 88%  
186 6% 85%  
187 9% 79%  
188 7% 70%  
189 8% 63%  
190 6% 55% Median
191 7% 50%  
192 9% 42%  
193 5% 34%  
194 7% 29%  
195 8% 21%  
196 3% 13%  
197 3% 11%  
198 3% 7%  
199 1.0% 4%  
200 1.2% 3%  
201 0.8% 2%  
202 0.4% 0.9%  
203 0.3% 0.6%  
204 0.1% 0.2%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0.1% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.2% 99.8%  
141 0.4% 99.6%  
142 0.8% 99.2%  
143 1.2% 98%  
144 2% 97%  
145 3% 95%  
146 3% 93%  
147 5% 89%  
148 7% 84%  
149 5% 77%  
150 8% 72%  
151 8% 64% Majority
152 10% 56% Median
153 9% 46%  
154 7% 36%  
155 7% 30%  
156 5% 23%  
157 7% 18%  
158 3% 11% Last Result
159 3% 8%  
160 2% 5%  
161 2% 3%  
162 0.7% 2%  
163 0.4% 1.0%  
164 0.2% 0.5%  
165 0.2% 0.3%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.3% 99.6%  
67 1.2% 99.3%  
68 1.3% 98%  
69 1.2% 97%  
70 3% 96%  
71 5% 92%  
72 5% 88%  
73 4% 83%  
74 8% 78% Median
75 10% 70%  
76 4% 60%  
77 6% 56%  
78 10% 50%  
79 6% 40%  
80 5% 34%  
81 5% 29%  
82 7% 24%  
83 5% 17%  
84 3% 12%  
85 4% 9%  
86 1.3% 5%  
87 1.3% 4%  
88 1.2% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.0%  
90 0.3% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.4%  
65 0.8% 99.0%  
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 96%  
68 3% 93%  
69 6% 90%  
70 8% 84%  
71 7% 76%  
72 8% 69%  
73 10% 60%  
74 11% 50% Median
75 10% 39%  
76 7% 29%  
77 6% 22%  
78 6% 16%  
79 3% 10%  
80 2% 6%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.5% 1.2%  
84 0.3% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations