Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 16–20 July 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 37.2% 35.2–39.2% 34.7–39.7% 34.2–40.2% 33.3–41.2%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 26.6% 24.8–28.4% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.4% 23.1–30.3%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 13.6% 12.3–15.1% 11.9–15.5% 11.6–15.8% 11.0–16.6%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.1% 4.7–8.7%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 5.5% 4.6–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.6%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 151 146–157 144–159 143–161 140–164
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 72 67–78 66–79 65–81 62–84
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 37 33–41 32–42 32–43 30–46
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 17 15–21 14–21 14–22 13–24
Ελληνική Λύση 10 15 13–18 12–18 11–19 10–20
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 9 0–11 0–12 0–12 0–13

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.2% 99.9%  
140 0.3% 99.7%  
141 0.6% 99.4%  
142 0.8% 98.8%  
143 1.5% 98%  
144 2% 97%  
145 3% 94%  
146 5% 91%  
147 5% 86%  
148 7% 81%  
149 6% 74%  
150 9% 68%  
151 8% 58% Median, Majority
152 10% 50%  
153 9% 40%  
154 7% 31%  
155 7% 25%  
156 4% 17%  
157 5% 14%  
158 2% 9% Last Result
159 3% 7%  
160 1.1% 4%  
161 1.0% 3%  
162 0.7% 2%  
163 0.3% 0.9%  
164 0.3% 0.5%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.8% 99.5%  
64 1.0% 98.6%  
65 2% 98%  
66 4% 95%  
67 4% 91%  
68 8% 87%  
69 7% 79%  
70 9% 71%  
71 10% 62%  
72 9% 52% Median
73 8% 43%  
74 7% 35%  
75 7% 28%  
76 5% 20%  
77 5% 15%  
78 3% 10%  
79 3% 7%  
80 2% 4%  
81 1.0% 3%  
82 0.8% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.9%  
84 0.3% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
87 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.6% 99.7%  
31 1.4% 99.0%  
32 3% 98%  
33 5% 95%  
34 7% 90%  
35 10% 82%  
36 12% 73%  
37 14% 60% Median
38 14% 46%  
39 10% 32%  
40 8% 23%  
41 6% 15%  
42 4% 9%  
43 2% 5%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.6% 1.2%  
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 5% 98%  
15 10% 93% Last Result
16 15% 84%  
17 20% 69% Median
18 16% 49%  
19 14% 33%  
20 9% 19%  
21 5% 10%  
22 3% 5%  
23 1.1% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.8%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
11 2% 99.4%  
12 6% 97%  
13 14% 91%  
14 15% 77%  
15 24% 62% Median
16 13% 38%  
17 14% 24%  
18 6% 11%  
19 3% 5%  
20 1.3% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.5%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100%  
1 0% 68%  
2 0% 68%  
3 0% 68%  
4 0% 68%  
5 0% 68%  
6 0% 68%  
7 0% 68%  
8 9% 68%  
9 25% 58% Last Result, Median
10 19% 33%  
11 9% 15%  
12 4% 5%  
13 1.2% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 189 100% 182–195 181–197 179–199 176–202
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 151 58% 146–157 144–159 143–161 140–164
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 79 0% 72–85 70–86 68–88 66–90
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 72 0% 67–78 66–79 65–81 62–84

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0% 100%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0.2% 99.9%  
176 0.3% 99.7%  
177 0.5% 99.4%  
178 0.7% 98.9%  
179 1.2% 98%  
180 2% 97% Last Result
181 2% 95%  
182 3% 93%  
183 4% 90%  
184 5% 86%  
185 6% 81%  
186 6% 75%  
187 8% 68%  
188 8% 60% Median
189 10% 53%  
190 8% 43%  
191 7% 35%  
192 7% 28%  
193 5% 21%  
194 4% 16%  
195 3% 12%  
196 2% 9%  
197 2% 7%  
198 1.5% 5%  
199 1.3% 3%  
200 0.8% 2%  
201 0.4% 1.0%  
202 0.3% 0.5%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0.1% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.2% 99.9%  
140 0.3% 99.7%  
141 0.6% 99.4%  
142 0.8% 98.8%  
143 1.5% 98%  
144 2% 97%  
145 3% 94%  
146 5% 91%  
147 5% 86%  
148 7% 81%  
149 6% 74%  
150 9% 68%  
151 8% 58% Median, Majority
152 10% 50%  
153 9% 40%  
154 7% 31%  
155 7% 25%  
156 4% 17%  
157 5% 14%  
158 2% 9% Last Result
159 3% 7%  
160 1.1% 4%  
161 1.0% 3%  
162 0.7% 2%  
163 0.3% 0.9%  
164 0.3% 0.5%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.6%  
67 0.8% 99.2%  
68 0.9% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 2% 96%  
71 2% 94%  
72 3% 91%  
73 3% 88%  
74 5% 85%  
75 5% 80%  
76 7% 75%  
77 8% 68%  
78 8% 60%  
79 9% 52%  
80 8% 43%  
81 8% 36% Median
82 6% 28%  
83 6% 22%  
84 5% 16%  
85 4% 11%  
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.1% 3%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.9%  
91 0.2% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.8% 99.5%  
64 1.0% 98.6%  
65 2% 98%  
66 4% 95%  
67 4% 91%  
68 8% 87%  
69 7% 79%  
70 9% 71%  
71 10% 62%  
72 9% 52% Median
73 8% 43%  
74 7% 35%  
75 7% 28%  
76 5% 20%  
77 5% 15%  
78 3% 10%  
79 3% 7%  
80 2% 4%  
81 1.0% 3%  
82 0.8% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.9%  
84 0.3% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
87 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations