Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 22–25 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 36.4% | 34.4–38.3% | 33.9–38.9% | 33.4–39.4% | 32.5–40.4% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 26.7% | 24.9–28.5% | 24.4–29.1% | 24.0–29.5% | 23.2–30.4% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.0% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.0–7.8% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 149 | 143–155 | 142–156 | 141–158 | 138–160 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 72 | 68–78 | 66–79 | 65–81 | 63–83 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 38 | 34–42 | 33–43 | 32–44 | 31–46 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 17 | 14–20 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 12–23 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 16 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 12–20 | 11–21 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 9 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 140 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 141 | 2% | 98% | |
| 142 | 3% | 96% | |
| 143 | 3% | 93% | |
| 144 | 5% | 90% | |
| 145 | 6% | 85% | |
| 146 | 8% | 78% | |
| 147 | 9% | 70% | |
| 148 | 9% | 62% | |
| 149 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 150 | 9% | 43% | |
| 151 | 7% | 34% | Majority |
| 152 | 7% | 27% | |
| 153 | 5% | 20% | |
| 154 | 4% | 15% | |
| 155 | 3% | 10% | |
| 156 | 2% | 7% | |
| 157 | 2% | 4% | |
| 158 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 66 | 2% | 97% | |
| 67 | 4% | 95% | |
| 68 | 5% | 91% | |
| 69 | 7% | 86% | |
| 70 | 9% | 78% | |
| 71 | 9% | 69% | |
| 72 | 10% | 60% | Median |
| 73 | 10% | 50% | |
| 74 | 10% | 39% | |
| 75 | 7% | 30% | |
| 76 | 7% | 23% | |
| 77 | 5% | 16% | |
| 78 | 4% | 11% | |
| 79 | 3% | 7% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 33 | 3% | 97% | |
| 34 | 6% | 94% | |
| 35 | 7% | 89% | |
| 36 | 11% | 82% | |
| 37 | 12% | 70% | |
| 38 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 39 | 12% | 45% | |
| 40 | 10% | 33% | |
| 41 | 9% | 22% | |
| 42 | 5% | 14% | |
| 43 | 4% | 8% | |
| 44 | 2% | 4% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 14 | 8% | 95% | |
| 15 | 14% | 87% | Last Result |
| 16 | 19% | 73% | |
| 17 | 19% | 54% | Median |
| 18 | 15% | 35% | |
| 19 | 10% | 20% | |
| 20 | 6% | 10% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 13 | 8% | 95% | |
| 14 | 14% | 87% | |
| 15 | 19% | 73% | |
| 16 | 21% | 54% | Median |
| 17 | 16% | 33% | |
| 18 | 9% | 18% | |
| 19 | 5% | 8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 4% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 79% | |
| 2 | 0% | 79% | |
| 3 | 0% | 79% | |
| 4 | 0% | 79% | |
| 5 | 0% | 79% | |
| 6 | 0% | 79% | |
| 7 | 0% | 79% | |
| 8 | 8% | 79% | |
| 9 | 25% | 71% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 22% | 46% | |
| 11 | 14% | 23% | |
| 12 | 7% | 10% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 187 | 100% | 181–193 | 180–195 | 178–197 | 176–200 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 149 | 34% | 143–155 | 142–156 | 141–158 | 138–160 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 81 | 0% | 74–86 | 72–88 | 70–89 | 67–92 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 72 | 0% | 68–78 | 66–79 | 65–81 | 63–83 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 173 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 176 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 177 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 178 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 179 | 2% | 97% | |
| 180 | 3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 181 | 3% | 92% | |
| 182 | 5% | 89% | |
| 183 | 7% | 84% | |
| 184 | 6% | 77% | |
| 185 | 10% | 71% | |
| 186 | 7% | 61% | |
| 187 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 188 | 8% | 45% | |
| 189 | 7% | 37% | |
| 190 | 9% | 30% | |
| 191 | 4% | 22% | |
| 192 | 5% | 18% | |
| 193 | 3% | 12% | |
| 194 | 3% | 9% | |
| 195 | 2% | 6% | |
| 196 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 197 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 198 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 140 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 141 | 2% | 98% | |
| 142 | 3% | 96% | |
| 143 | 3% | 93% | |
| 144 | 5% | 90% | |
| 145 | 6% | 85% | |
| 146 | 8% | 78% | |
| 147 | 9% | 70% | |
| 148 | 9% | 62% | |
| 149 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 150 | 9% | 43% | |
| 151 | 7% | 34% | Majority |
| 152 | 7% | 27% | |
| 153 | 5% | 20% | |
| 154 | 4% | 15% | |
| 155 | 3% | 10% | |
| 156 | 2% | 7% | |
| 157 | 2% | 4% | |
| 158 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 71 | 2% | 97% | |
| 72 | 2% | 96% | |
| 73 | 3% | 94% | |
| 74 | 3% | 91% | |
| 75 | 3% | 88% | |
| 76 | 5% | 85% | |
| 77 | 5% | 80% | |
| 78 | 8% | 75% | |
| 79 | 6% | 68% | |
| 80 | 10% | 61% | |
| 81 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 82 | 9% | 43% | |
| 83 | 8% | 34% | |
| 84 | 7% | 26% | |
| 85 | 6% | 19% | |
| 86 | 5% | 14% | |
| 87 | 3% | 9% | |
| 88 | 2% | 6% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 66 | 2% | 97% | |
| 67 | 4% | 95% | |
| 68 | 5% | 91% | |
| 69 | 7% | 86% | |
| 70 | 9% | 78% | |
| 71 | 9% | 69% | |
| 72 | 10% | 60% | Median |
| 73 | 10% | 50% | |
| 74 | 10% | 39% | |
| 75 | 7% | 30% | |
| 76 | 7% | 23% | |
| 77 | 5% | 16% | |
| 78 | 4% | 11% | |
| 79 | 3% | 7% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Marc
- Commissioner(s): Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ
- Fieldwork period: 22–25 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.70%