Opinion Poll by MRB for Open TV, 19–21 September 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 35.7% 33.8–37.7% 33.2–38.2% 32.8–38.7% 31.9–39.7%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 27.2% 25.5–29.1% 25.0–29.6% 24.5–30.1% 23.7–31.0%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 13.4% 12.1–14.9% 11.7–15.3% 11.4–15.7% 10.8–16.4%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 147 142–152 140–154 139–155 137–158
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 74 69–79 68–80 67–82 65–84
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 36 33–40 32–41 31–43 29–44
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 17 14–20 14–20 13–21 12–23
Ελληνική Λύση 10 14 12–16 11–17 10–18 9–19
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 12 9–14 9–15 8–15 0–17

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.2% 99.8%  
137 0.4% 99.6%  
138 0.7% 99.2%  
139 1.3% 98%  
140 2% 97%  
141 3% 95%  
142 5% 92%  
143 6% 87%  
144 7% 81%  
145 10% 74%  
146 9% 65%  
147 10% 56% Median
148 9% 46%  
149 9% 37%  
150 7% 28%  
151 6% 21% Majority
152 5% 14%  
153 3% 9%  
154 3% 6%  
155 1.5% 4%  
156 1.0% 2%  
157 0.5% 1.1%  
158 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
159 0.2% 0.3%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.5%  
66 1.1% 99.0%  
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 96%  
69 4% 93%  
70 6% 89%  
71 7% 83%  
72 9% 75%  
73 11% 66%  
74 11% 55% Median
75 10% 45%  
76 9% 35%  
77 8% 26%  
78 6% 18%  
79 4% 12%  
80 3% 8%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.3% 3%  
83 0.7% 1.4%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 1.0% 99.5%  
31 2% 98.5%  
32 4% 96%  
33 7% 92%  
34 9% 85%  
35 12% 76%  
36 14% 63% Median
37 14% 50%  
38 11% 36%  
39 9% 24%  
40 6% 16%  
41 4% 9%  
42 2% 5%  
43 1.4% 3%  
44 0.7% 1.1%  
45 0.3% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.8%  
13 3% 98.7%  
14 8% 96%  
15 14% 87% Last Result
16 17% 73%  
17 19% 55% Median
18 17% 37%  
19 9% 20%  
20 6% 10%  
21 3% 4%  
22 1.0% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.9%  
10 2% 99.4% Last Result
11 7% 97%  
12 14% 90%  
13 20% 76%  
14 21% 56% Median
15 17% 36%  
16 11% 19%  
17 5% 8%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.8% 1.1%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 1.0% 98%  
9 8% 97% Last Result
10 16% 90%  
11 22% 74%  
12 21% 52% Median
13 15% 30%  
14 9% 15%  
15 4% 6%  
16 1.3% 2%  
17 0.4% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 184 100% 178–189 177–191 176–192 173–195
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 147 21% 142–152 140–154 139–155 137–158
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 86 0% 81–91 79–92 78–93 75–96
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 74 0% 69–79 68–80 67–82 65–84

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0.1% 99.9%  
172 0.2% 99.8%  
173 0.3% 99.6%  
174 0.6% 99.3%  
175 1.1% 98.7%  
176 2% 98%  
177 3% 96%  
178 4% 93%  
179 5% 89%  
180 7% 84% Last Result
181 8% 78%  
182 9% 70%  
183 11% 61% Median
184 8% 51%  
185 10% 43%  
186 8% 33%  
187 7% 25%  
188 5% 18%  
189 4% 12%  
190 3% 8%  
191 2% 5%  
192 1.2% 3%  
193 0.7% 2%  
194 0.5% 1.1%  
195 0.3% 0.6%  
196 0.2% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.2% 99.8%  
137 0.4% 99.6%  
138 0.7% 99.2%  
139 1.3% 98%  
140 2% 97%  
141 3% 95%  
142 5% 92%  
143 6% 87%  
144 7% 81%  
145 10% 74%  
146 9% 65%  
147 10% 56% Median
148 9% 46%  
149 9% 37%  
150 7% 28%  
151 6% 21% Majority
152 5% 14%  
153 3% 9%  
154 3% 6%  
155 1.5% 4%  
156 1.0% 2%  
157 0.5% 1.1%  
158 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
159 0.2% 0.3%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.4% 99.6%  
76 0.6% 99.2%  
77 0.9% 98.6%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 96%  
80 3% 93%  
81 5% 90%  
82 6% 85%  
83 7% 79%  
84 11% 71%  
85 9% 60%  
86 9% 51% Median
87 10% 42%  
88 7% 32%  
89 7% 24%  
90 7% 17%  
91 4% 10%  
92 3% 7%  
93 2% 4%  
94 1.0% 2%  
95 0.7% 1.4% Last Result
96 0.3% 0.7%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.5%  
66 1.1% 99.0%  
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 96%  
69 4% 93%  
70 6% 89%  
71 7% 83%  
72 9% 75%  
73 11% 66%  
74 11% 55% Median
75 10% 45%  
76 9% 35%  
77 8% 26%  
78 6% 18%  
79 4% 12%  
80 3% 8%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.3% 3%  
83 0.7% 1.4%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations