Opinion Poll by Metron Analysis for Mega TV, 22–26 September 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 35.8% 34.1–37.5% 33.6–38.0% 33.2–38.4% 32.4–39.3%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 25.4% 23.9–27.0% 23.5–27.4% 23.1–27.8% 22.4–28.6%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 15.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.4–16.7% 13.2–17.1% 12.6–17.7%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.3% 5.5–7.3% 5.3–7.5% 5.1–7.8% 4.8–8.2%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 5.9% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.1% 4.8–7.3% 4.4–7.8%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 4.2% 3.6–5.0% 3.4–5.3% 3.3–5.5% 3.0–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 146 142–151 141–152 140–153 137–155
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 68 64–73 63–74 62–75 60–77
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 41 37–44 36–45 35–46 34–48
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 17 15–19 14–20 14–21 13–22
Ελληνική Λύση 10 16 14–18 13–19 13–20 12–21
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 11 10–14 9–14 9–15 0–16

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0.1% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.3% 99.8%  
138 0.7% 99.5%  
139 1.3% 98.8%  
140 2% 98%  
141 4% 95%  
142 5% 91%  
143 7% 86%  
144 10% 79%  
145 11% 69%  
146 11% 58% Median
147 10% 47%  
148 10% 37%  
149 9% 27%  
150 6% 18%  
151 5% 12% Majority
152 3% 7%  
153 2% 4%  
154 1.1% 2%  
155 0.6% 1.1%  
156 0.2% 0.5%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
159 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.8%  
61 0.8% 99.4%  
62 2% 98.6%  
63 3% 97%  
64 5% 94%  
65 8% 89%  
66 9% 81%  
67 12% 72%  
68 12% 60% Median
69 12% 48%  
70 11% 36%  
71 9% 25%  
72 6% 17%  
73 5% 10%  
74 3% 6%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.8% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.7%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.7%  
35 2% 99.0%  
36 4% 97%  
37 7% 94%  
38 10% 87%  
39 12% 77%  
40 15% 65%  
41 16% 50% Median
42 13% 35%  
43 9% 22%  
44 6% 13%  
45 4% 7%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.9% 1.4%  
48 0.4% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.4% 99.7%  
14 5% 98%  
15 12% 93% Last Result
16 18% 82%  
17 21% 63% Median
18 19% 42%  
19 12% 22%  
20 6% 10%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.9% 1.2%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.3% 99.8%  
13 5% 98%  
14 12% 94%  
15 20% 82%  
16 21% 62% Median
17 20% 41%  
18 12% 21%  
19 6% 9%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.7% 1.0%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 0% 99.4%  
5 0% 99.4%  
6 0% 99.4%  
7 0% 99.4%  
8 0.7% 99.4%  
9 6% 98.6% Last Result
10 18% 92%  
11 25% 75% Median
12 23% 49%  
13 16% 27%  
14 7% 10%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.6% 0.8%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 187 100% 182–191 181–193 180–194 178–197
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 146 12% 142–151 141–152 140–153 137–155
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 80 0% 76–84 74–85 73–87 71–89
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 68 0% 64–73 63–74 62–75 60–77

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0.1% 100%  
176 0.1% 99.9%  
177 0.2% 99.8%  
178 0.6% 99.5%  
179 1.1% 99.0%  
180 2% 98% Last Result
181 3% 96%  
182 6% 93%  
183 5% 88%  
184 8% 83%  
185 12% 75%  
186 8% 62%  
187 11% 54% Median
188 13% 43%  
189 7% 31%  
190 7% 24%  
191 7% 16%  
192 3% 9%  
193 2% 6%  
194 2% 4%  
195 0.8% 2%  
196 0.3% 0.9%  
197 0.4% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0.1% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.3% 99.8%  
138 0.7% 99.5%  
139 1.3% 98.8%  
140 2% 98%  
141 4% 95%  
142 5% 91%  
143 7% 86%  
144 10% 79%  
145 11% 69%  
146 11% 58% Median
147 10% 47%  
148 10% 37%  
149 9% 27%  
150 6% 18%  
151 5% 12% Majority
152 3% 7%  
153 2% 4%  
154 1.1% 2%  
155 0.6% 1.1%  
156 0.2% 0.5%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
159 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.4% 99.5%  
72 0.7% 99.1%  
73 1.3% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 4% 95%  
76 6% 91%  
77 9% 84%  
78 10% 76%  
79 11% 65% Median
80 12% 54%  
81 10% 42%  
82 10% 33%  
83 8% 23%  
84 5% 14%  
85 4% 9%  
86 2% 5%  
87 1.4% 3%  
88 0.6% 1.3%  
89 0.4% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.8%  
61 0.8% 99.4%  
62 2% 98.6%  
63 3% 97%  
64 5% 94%  
65 8% 89%  
66 9% 81%  
67 12% 72%  
68 12% 60% Median
69 12% 48%  
70 11% 36%  
71 9% 25%  
72 6% 17%  
73 5% 10%  
74 3% 6%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.8% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.7%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations