Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 16–21 December 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 37.0% | 35.1–39.0% | 34.5–39.5% | 34.0–40.0% | 33.1–41.0% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 28.0% | 26.2–29.9% | 25.7–30.4% | 25.3–30.9% | 24.5–31.8% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 11.6% | 10.3–13.0% | 10.0–13.4% | 9.7–13.7% | 9.2–14.4% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.2–7.8% | 5.0–8.1% | 4.6–8.6% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.4–6.1% | 3.1–6.6% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 153 | 146–158 | 144–160 | 143–162 | 141–164 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 76 | 72–83 | 70–85 | 70–86 | 67–89 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 32 | 28–36 | 27–37 | 27–38 | 25–40 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 18 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 14–22 | 13–24 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 13 | 10–15 | 10–16 | 9–17 | 9–18 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 10 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 143 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 144 | 2% | 97% | |
| 145 | 2% | 95% | |
| 146 | 3% | 92% | |
| 147 | 4% | 89% | |
| 148 | 4% | 85% | |
| 149 | 5% | 81% | |
| 150 | 7% | 76% | |
| 151 | 8% | 69% | Majority |
| 152 | 10% | 61% | |
| 153 | 10% | 51% | Median |
| 154 | 10% | 41% | |
| 155 | 8% | 31% | |
| 156 | 7% | 23% | |
| 157 | 4% | 16% | |
| 158 | 3% | 11% | Last Result |
| 159 | 2% | 8% | |
| 160 | 2% | 6% | |
| 161 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 162 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 70 | 3% | 98% | |
| 71 | 3% | 94% | |
| 72 | 7% | 91% | |
| 73 | 7% | 85% | |
| 74 | 9% | 78% | |
| 75 | 10% | 69% | |
| 76 | 10% | 60% | Median |
| 77 | 9% | 50% | |
| 78 | 7% | 41% | |
| 79 | 8% | 33% | |
| 80 | 5% | 26% | |
| 81 | 5% | 21% | |
| 82 | 4% | 15% | |
| 83 | 3% | 11% | |
| 84 | 3% | 8% | |
| 85 | 2% | 5% | |
| 86 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 87 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98% | |
| 28 | 6% | 94% | |
| 29 | 10% | 89% | |
| 30 | 11% | 78% | |
| 31 | 14% | 67% | |
| 32 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 33 | 13% | 40% | |
| 34 | 9% | 27% | |
| 35 | 7% | 18% | |
| 36 | 5% | 11% | |
| 37 | 3% | 6% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 4% | 98% | |
| 15 | 8% | 95% | Last Result |
| 16 | 14% | 87% | |
| 17 | 17% | 73% | |
| 18 | 19% | 56% | Median |
| 19 | 15% | 37% | |
| 20 | 10% | 22% | |
| 21 | 6% | 12% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 8% | 97% | Last Result |
| 11 | 16% | 89% | |
| 12 | 20% | 74% | |
| 13 | 21% | 54% | Median |
| 14 | 15% | 33% | |
| 15 | 10% | 18% | |
| 16 | 5% | 8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 80% | |
| 2 | 0% | 80% | |
| 3 | 0% | 80% | |
| 4 | 0% | 80% | |
| 5 | 0% | 80% | |
| 6 | 0% | 80% | |
| 7 | 0% | 80% | |
| 8 | 5% | 80% | |
| 9 | 22% | 75% | Last Result |
| 10 | 22% | 53% | Median |
| 11 | 17% | 31% | |
| 12 | 9% | 14% | |
| 13 | 3% | 5% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 184 | 100% | 178–190 | 177–192 | 175–194 | 173–197 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 153 | 69% | 146–158 | 144–160 | 143–162 | 141–164 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 85 | 0% | 79–91 | 77–92 | 75–94 | 72–97 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 76 | 0% | 72–83 | 70–85 | 70–86 | 67–89 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 174 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 175 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 176 | 2% | 97% | |
| 177 | 3% | 96% | |
| 178 | 3% | 93% | |
| 179 | 4% | 90% | |
| 180 | 6% | 85% | Last Result |
| 181 | 7% | 79% | |
| 182 | 8% | 73% | |
| 183 | 9% | 65% | |
| 184 | 9% | 56% | |
| 185 | 8% | 47% | Median |
| 186 | 8% | 39% | |
| 187 | 7% | 30% | |
| 188 | 6% | 23% | |
| 189 | 4% | 17% | |
| 190 | 4% | 12% | |
| 191 | 2% | 9% | |
| 192 | 2% | 6% | |
| 193 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 194 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 195 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 196 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 143 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 144 | 2% | 97% | |
| 145 | 2% | 95% | |
| 146 | 3% | 92% | |
| 147 | 4% | 89% | |
| 148 | 4% | 85% | |
| 149 | 5% | 81% | |
| 150 | 7% | 76% | |
| 151 | 8% | 69% | Majority |
| 152 | 10% | 61% | |
| 153 | 10% | 51% | Median |
| 154 | 10% | 41% | |
| 155 | 8% | 31% | |
| 156 | 7% | 23% | |
| 157 | 4% | 16% | |
| 158 | 3% | 11% | Last Result |
| 159 | 2% | 8% | |
| 160 | 2% | 6% | |
| 161 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 162 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 77 | 2% | 96% | |
| 78 | 2% | 94% | |
| 79 | 3% | 92% | |
| 80 | 4% | 89% | |
| 81 | 5% | 85% | |
| 82 | 7% | 80% | |
| 83 | 8% | 73% | |
| 84 | 8% | 65% | |
| 85 | 10% | 57% | |
| 86 | 8% | 47% | Median |
| 87 | 9% | 39% | |
| 88 | 7% | 30% | |
| 89 | 6% | 23% | |
| 90 | 5% | 17% | |
| 91 | 5% | 12% | |
| 92 | 3% | 8% | |
| 93 | 2% | 5% | |
| 94 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.8% | 2% | Last Result |
| 96 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 70 | 3% | 98% | |
| 71 | 3% | 94% | |
| 72 | 7% | 91% | |
| 73 | 7% | 85% | |
| 74 | 9% | 78% | |
| 75 | 10% | 69% | |
| 76 | 10% | 60% | Median |
| 77 | 9% | 50% | |
| 78 | 7% | 41% | |
| 79 | 8% | 33% | |
| 80 | 5% | 26% | |
| 81 | 5% | 21% | |
| 82 | 4% | 15% | |
| 83 | 3% | 11% | |
| 84 | 3% | 8% | |
| 85 | 2% | 5% | |
| 86 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 87 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Marc
- Commissioner(s): Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ
- Fieldwork period: 16–21 December 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1003
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.59%