Opinion Poll by Opinion Poll for The TOC, 11–13 January 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 38.6% 36.7–40.6% 36.1–41.2% 35.6–41.7% 34.7–42.6%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 29.3% 27.5–31.2% 26.9–31.7% 26.5–32.1% 25.7–33.1%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 11.8% 10.6–13.2% 10.3–13.6% 10.0–14.0% 9.4–14.7%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.2–6.6% 4.1–6.8% 3.7–7.4%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 154 149–160 147–162 146–164 144–167
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 79 74–85 73–86 72–88 69–90
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 32 29–36 28–37 27–38 25–40
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 14 12–17 11–18 11–18 10–20
Ελληνική Λύση 10 13 11–15 10–16 10–17 9–18
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 9 0–11 0–11 0–12 0–13

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.3% 99.8%  
144 0.5% 99.5%  
145 0.9% 99.0%  
146 2% 98%  
147 2% 96%  
148 4% 94%  
149 4% 91%  
150 6% 86%  
151 7% 80% Majority
152 9% 73%  
153 8% 64%  
154 10% 56% Median
155 8% 46%  
156 8% 38%  
157 7% 30%  
158 6% 23% Last Result
159 4% 17%  
160 3% 13%  
161 3% 9%  
162 2% 6%  
163 2% 4%  
164 1.0% 3%  
165 0.7% 2%  
166 0.4% 0.9%  
167 0.2% 0.5%  
168 0.1% 0.3%  
169 0.1% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.6% 99.4%  
71 1.0% 98.9%  
72 2% 98%  
73 3% 96%  
74 4% 93%  
75 5% 89%  
76 6% 84%  
77 9% 78%  
78 11% 69%  
79 11% 58% Median
80 8% 48%  
81 8% 40%  
82 9% 32%  
83 7% 23%  
84 5% 16%  
85 3% 11%  
86 3% 8% Last Result
87 2% 5%  
88 1.5% 3%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 1.0% 99.5%  
27 3% 98%  
28 5% 96%  
29 7% 91%  
30 10% 84%  
31 13% 73%  
32 14% 60% Median
33 14% 46%  
34 11% 32%  
35 8% 21%  
36 6% 12%  
37 3% 7%  
38 2% 4%  
39 1.0% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 1.0% 99.8%  
11 4% 98.8%  
12 10% 95%  
13 15% 85%  
14 22% 70% Median
15 20% 48% Last Result
16 13% 29%  
17 9% 16%  
18 5% 7%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.6% 0.8%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0.2% 99.8%  
9 2% 99.7%  
10 6% 98% Last Result
11 14% 91%  
12 20% 77%  
13 21% 57% Median
14 17% 36%  
15 11% 19%  
16 5% 8%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.7% 1.0%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100%  
1 0% 68%  
2 0% 68%  
3 0% 68%  
4 0% 68%  
5 0% 68%  
6 0% 68%  
7 0% 68%  
8 10% 68%  
9 25% 58% Last Result, Median
10 19% 33%  
11 9% 14%  
12 3% 5%  
13 1.1% 1.4%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 186 100% 181–193 179–195 178–197 175–199
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 154 80% 149–160 147–162 146–164 144–167
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 87 0% 79–92 77–94 76–95 73–98
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 79 0% 74–85 73–86 72–88 69–90

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
172 0% 100%  
173 0.1% 99.9%  
174 0.2% 99.9%  
175 0.3% 99.7%  
176 0.5% 99.3%  
177 1.0% 98.8%  
178 2% 98%  
179 3% 96%  
180 3% 93% Last Result
181 4% 90%  
182 6% 86%  
183 8% 80%  
184 7% 72%  
185 8% 65%  
186 8% 57% Median
187 9% 49%  
188 7% 40%  
189 7% 32%  
190 6% 26%  
191 4% 20%  
192 3% 15%  
193 3% 12%  
194 3% 9%  
195 2% 6%  
196 1.1% 4%  
197 1.0% 3%  
198 0.7% 2%  
199 0.5% 1.0%  
200 0.2% 0.5%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.3% 99.8%  
144 0.5% 99.5%  
145 0.9% 99.0%  
146 2% 98%  
147 2% 96%  
148 4% 94%  
149 4% 91%  
150 6% 86%  
151 7% 80% Majority
152 9% 73%  
153 8% 64%  
154 10% 56% Median
155 8% 46%  
156 8% 38%  
157 7% 30%  
158 6% 23% Last Result
159 4% 17%  
160 3% 13%  
161 3% 9%  
162 2% 6%  
163 2% 4%  
164 1.0% 3%  
165 0.7% 2%  
166 0.4% 0.9%  
167 0.2% 0.5%  
168 0.1% 0.3%  
169 0.1% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.6%  
74 0.5% 99.3%  
75 0.8% 98.7%  
76 1.3% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 94%  
79 3% 92%  
80 2% 89%  
81 5% 87%  
82 6% 82%  
83 6% 76%  
84 6% 70%  
85 6% 64%  
86 6% 57%  
87 9% 51%  
88 11% 42% Median
89 7% 31%  
90 6% 24%  
91 5% 18%  
92 5% 13%  
93 3% 9%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.4% 3% Last Result
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.0%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.6% 99.4%  
71 1.0% 98.9%  
72 2% 98%  
73 3% 96%  
74 4% 93%  
75 5% 89%  
76 6% 84%  
77 9% 78%  
78 11% 69%  
79 11% 58% Median
80 8% 48%  
81 8% 40%  
82 9% 32%  
83 7% 23%  
84 5% 16%  
85 3% 11%  
86 3% 8% Last Result
87 2% 5%  
88 1.5% 3%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations