Opinion Poll by Metron Analysis for Mega TV, 11–17 January 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 36.5% 34.8–38.3% 34.4–38.7% 33.9–39.2% 33.2–40.0%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 27.6% 26.0–29.2% 25.6–29.7% 25.2–30.1% 24.5–30.9%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 12.3% 11.2–13.5% 10.9–13.9% 10.6–14.2% 10.1–14.8%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.0% 5.3–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.5–7.9%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 4.4% 3.8–5.3% 3.6–5.5% 3.4–5.7% 3.2–6.1%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.6% 3.0–4.3% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.8% 2.5–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 151 146–156 145–157 144–159 142–161
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 76 72–81 71–82 70–83 68–86
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 34 31–37 30–38 29–39 28–41
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 17 15–19 14–20 13–21 12–22
Ελληνική Λύση 10 12 10–15 10–15 10–16 9–17
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 10 8–12 0–13 0–13 0–14

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.3% 99.8%  
142 0.6% 99.5%  
143 1.1% 99.0%  
144 2% 98%  
145 3% 96%  
146 5% 93%  
147 6% 88%  
148 8% 82%  
149 10% 74%  
150 10% 64%  
151 10% 54% Median, Majority
152 10% 44%  
153 10% 34%  
154 7% 24%  
155 6% 17%  
156 4% 11%  
157 3% 8%  
158 2% 5% Last Result
159 1.1% 3%  
160 0.7% 2%  
161 0.4% 0.9%  
162 0.2% 0.4%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 99.6%  
69 1.1% 99.0%  
70 2% 98%  
71 4% 96%  
72 5% 92%  
73 8% 86%  
74 9% 79%  
75 11% 69%  
76 12% 59% Median
77 11% 47%  
78 10% 36%  
79 8% 26%  
80 6% 18%  
81 4% 12%  
82 3% 7%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.1% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.1%  
86 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.7%  
29 2% 99.0%  
30 4% 97%  
31 8% 93%  
32 12% 85%  
33 15% 74%  
34 16% 59% Median
35 14% 43%  
36 11% 29%  
37 8% 18%  
38 5% 10%  
39 3% 5%  
40 1.2% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.8%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.5%  
14 7% 97%  
15 13% 90% Last Result
16 20% 77%  
17 21% 57% Median
18 17% 36%  
19 11% 19%  
20 5% 8%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.6% 0.8%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0.1% 99.8%  
9 2% 99.7%  
10 8% 98% Last Result
11 18% 89%  
12 25% 72% Median
13 22% 46%  
14 14% 24%  
15 7% 10%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.7% 0.9%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 0% 90%  
8 4% 90%  
9 22% 86% Last Result
10 28% 65% Median
11 21% 37%  
12 10% 16%  
13 4% 5%  
14 1.1% 1.4%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 185 100% 180–190 179–192 178–193 175–196
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 151 54% 146–156 145–157 144–159 142–161
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 86 0% 80–90 78–92 77–93 73–95
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 76 0% 72–81 71–82 70–83 68–86

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0.1% 100%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0.3% 99.8%  
176 0.7% 99.4%  
177 1.0% 98.8%  
178 2% 98%  
179 3% 96%  
180 5% 93% Last Result
181 7% 88%  
182 7% 81%  
183 9% 74%  
184 10% 65%  
185 10% 54% Median
186 10% 44%  
187 9% 34%  
188 6% 26%  
189 5% 19%  
190 5% 14%  
191 3% 9%  
192 2% 6%  
193 2% 4%  
194 1.0% 2%  
195 0.6% 1.4%  
196 0.4% 0.8%  
197 0.2% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.3% 99.8%  
142 0.6% 99.5%  
143 1.1% 99.0%  
144 2% 98%  
145 3% 96%  
146 5% 93%  
147 6% 88%  
148 8% 82%  
149 10% 74%  
150 10% 64%  
151 10% 54% Median, Majority
152 10% 44%  
153 10% 34%  
154 7% 24%  
155 6% 17%  
156 4% 11%  
157 3% 8%  
158 2% 5% Last Result
159 1.1% 3%  
160 0.7% 2%  
161 0.4% 0.9%  
162 0.2% 0.4%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.5%  
75 0.6% 99.2%  
76 0.9% 98.6%  
77 1.1% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 2% 95%  
80 3% 93%  
81 4% 90%  
82 6% 86%  
83 7% 80%  
84 9% 73%  
85 9% 63%  
86 10% 54% Median
87 11% 43%  
88 9% 33%  
89 8% 23%  
90 6% 16%  
91 4% 10%  
92 3% 6%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 99.6%  
69 1.1% 99.0%  
70 2% 98%  
71 4% 96%  
72 5% 92%  
73 8% 86%  
74 9% 79%  
75 11% 69%  
76 12% 59% Median
77 11% 47%  
78 10% 36%  
79 8% 26%  
80 6% 18%  
81 4% 12%  
82 3% 7%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.1% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.1%  
86 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations