Opinion Poll by Opinion Poll for The TOC, 14–17 February 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 38.5% 36.6–40.5% 36.0–41.1% 35.6–41.6% 34.7–42.6%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 29.6% 27.8–31.5% 27.3–32.0% 26.8–32.5% 26.0–33.4%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 11.5% 10.3–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.6–13.6% 9.1–14.3%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.7% 3.6–7.3%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 4.6% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 156 151–162 149–164 148–165 145–168
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 82 76–87 75–88 74–90 71–92
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 32 28–35 27–36 26–37 25–39
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 14 12–17 11–18 11–19 10–20
Ελληνική Λύση 10 13 11–15 10–16 10–17 9–18
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 0 0–9 0–10 0–10 0–12

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.2% 99.8%  
145 0.4% 99.6%  
146 0.6% 99.2%  
147 1.0% 98.6%  
148 2% 98%  
149 2% 96%  
150 4% 94%  
151 4% 90% Majority
152 6% 86%  
153 7% 80%  
154 8% 73%  
155 8% 66%  
156 9% 58% Median
157 8% 48%  
158 9% 40% Last Result
159 7% 31%  
160 7% 25%  
161 5% 18%  
162 4% 12%  
163 3% 9%  
164 2% 5%  
165 1.5% 3%  
166 0.9% 2%  
167 0.5% 1.1%  
168 0.3% 0.6%  
169 0.2% 0.3%  
170 0.1% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 0.6% 99.4%  
73 1.0% 98.8%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 96%  
76 4% 93%  
77 5% 90%  
78 6% 85%  
79 9% 79%  
80 9% 70%  
81 9% 61%  
82 10% 52% Median
83 10% 41%  
84 8% 32%  
85 7% 24%  
86 6% 17% Last Result
87 4% 12%  
88 3% 8%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.2% 3%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.4% 0.9%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.6% 99.7%  
26 2% 99.1%  
27 3% 97%  
28 6% 94%  
29 10% 88%  
30 12% 79%  
31 13% 67%  
32 14% 54% Median
33 13% 40%  
34 10% 26%  
35 7% 17%  
36 5% 10%  
37 2% 5%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.7% 1.2%  
40 0.3% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 1.1% 99.8%  
11 4% 98.7%  
12 9% 95%  
13 16% 85%  
14 20% 69% Median
15 19% 49% Last Result
16 14% 30%  
17 8% 16%  
18 4% 7%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.7% 1.0%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0.2% 99.8%  
9 2% 99.6%  
10 7% 98% Last Result
11 14% 91%  
12 21% 77%  
13 22% 56% Median
14 15% 35%  
15 11% 19%  
16 6% 9%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.8% 1.1%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Median
1 0% 31%  
2 0% 31%  
3 0% 31%  
4 0% 31%  
5 0% 31%  
6 0% 31%  
7 0% 31%  
8 8% 31%  
9 13% 23% Last Result
10 7% 9%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 188 100% 182–194 180–196 179–197 176–200
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 156 90% 151–162 149–164 148–165 145–168
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 84 0% 78–91 77–93 76–94 73–97
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 82 0% 76–87 75–88 74–90 71–92

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
172 0% 100%  
173 0.1% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0.2% 99.8%  
176 0.3% 99.6%  
177 0.5% 99.2%  
178 0.9% 98.7%  
179 2% 98%  
180 2% 96% Last Result
181 3% 94%  
182 3% 91%  
183 5% 88%  
184 6% 83%  
185 7% 77%  
186 7% 71%  
187 8% 64%  
188 8% 56% Median
189 8% 48%  
190 8% 40%  
191 7% 32%  
192 7% 25%  
193 5% 18%  
194 4% 13%  
195 3% 9%  
196 2% 6%  
197 1.4% 4%  
198 0.9% 2%  
199 0.5% 1.2%  
200 0.3% 0.7%  
201 0.2% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.2% 99.8%  
145 0.4% 99.6%  
146 0.6% 99.2%  
147 1.0% 98.6%  
148 2% 98%  
149 2% 96%  
150 4% 94%  
151 4% 90% Majority
152 6% 86%  
153 7% 80%  
154 8% 73%  
155 8% 66%  
156 9% 58% Median
157 8% 48%  
158 9% 40% Last Result
159 7% 31%  
160 7% 25%  
161 5% 18%  
162 4% 12%  
163 3% 9%  
164 2% 5%  
165 1.5% 3%  
166 0.9% 2%  
167 0.5% 1.1%  
168 0.3% 0.6%  
169 0.2% 0.3%  
170 0.1% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.7%  
74 0.6% 99.4%  
75 1.1% 98.7%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96%  
78 4% 93%  
79 5% 90%  
80 6% 84%  
81 6% 78%  
82 8% 72% Median
83 9% 64%  
84 7% 55%  
85 7% 48%  
86 7% 41%  
87 7% 34%  
88 6% 27%  
89 5% 21%  
90 5% 17%  
91 4% 12%  
92 2% 8%  
93 2% 6%  
94 2% 4%  
95 0.8% 2% Last Result
96 0.6% 1.3%  
97 0.3% 0.7%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 0.6% 99.4%  
73 1.0% 98.8%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 96%  
76 4% 93%  
77 5% 90%  
78 6% 85%  
79 9% 79%  
80 9% 70%  
81 9% 61%  
82 10% 52% Median
83 10% 41%  
84 8% 32%  
85 7% 24%  
86 6% 17% Last Result
87 4% 12%  
88 3% 8%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.2% 3%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.4% 0.9%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations