Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 27–30 March 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 35.1% 33.4–36.9% 32.9–37.4% 32.5–37.9% 31.7–38.7%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 29.2% 27.5–30.9% 27.1–31.4% 26.7–31.8% 25.9–32.6%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 10.7% 9.6–11.9% 9.3–12.3% 9.1–12.6% 8.6–13.2%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.5% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.8% 5.3–8.0% 4.9–8.6%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 4.8% 4.1–5.7% 3.9–5.9% 3.7–6.1% 3.4–6.6%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 4.4% 3.7–5.2% 3.5–5.5% 3.4–5.7% 3.1–6.1%
Εθνικό Κόμμα – Έλληνες 0.0% 4.2% 3.6–5.0% 3.4–5.3% 3.2–5.5% 2.9–5.9%
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 1.5% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.3%
Εθνική Δημιουργία 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 143 138–147 136–148 135–149 133–151
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 77 73–81 71–82 70–83 68–86
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 29 26–31 25–31 24–34 22–35
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 17 15–20 14–20 14–21 13–22
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 13 11–15 10–16 10–16 9–17
Ελληνική Λύση 10 12 10–13 9–14 9–15 8–16
Εθνικό Κόμμα – Έλληνες 0 11 9–13 9–14 8–14 0–15
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 0 0 0 0 0 0
Εθνική Δημιουργία 0 0 0 0 0 0

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.8%  
86 0% 99.7%  
87 0% 99.7%  
88 0% 99.7%  
89 0% 99.7%  
90 0% 99.7%  
91 0% 99.7%  
92 0% 99.7%  
93 0% 99.7%  
94 0% 99.7%  
95 0% 99.7%  
96 0% 99.7%  
97 0% 99.7%  
98 0% 99.7%  
99 0% 99.7%  
100 0% 99.7%  
101 0% 99.7%  
102 0% 99.7%  
103 0% 99.7%  
104 0% 99.7%  
105 0% 99.7%  
106 0% 99.7%  
107 0% 99.7%  
108 0% 99.7%  
109 0% 99.7%  
110 0% 99.7%  
111 0% 99.7%  
112 0% 99.7%  
113 0% 99.7%  
114 0% 99.7%  
115 0% 99.7%  
116 0% 99.7%  
117 0% 99.7%  
118 0% 99.7%  
119 0% 99.7%  
120 0% 99.7%  
121 0% 99.7%  
122 0% 99.7%  
123 0% 99.7%  
124 0% 99.7%  
125 0% 99.7%  
126 0% 99.7%  
127 0% 99.7%  
128 0% 99.7%  
129 0% 99.7%  
130 0% 99.7%  
131 0% 99.7%  
132 0.1% 99.7%  
133 0.3% 99.6%  
134 0.7% 99.3%  
135 2% 98.5%  
136 2% 97%  
137 5% 95%  
138 5% 90%  
139 4% 85%  
140 17% 81%  
141 5% 64%  
142 5% 59%  
143 7% 53% Median
144 20% 47%  
145 5% 26%  
146 6% 21%  
147 9% 16%  
148 3% 7%  
149 1.2% 3%  
150 1.2% 2%  
151 0.6% 1.0% Majority
152 0.2% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.4%  
70 2% 98.9%  
71 3% 97%  
72 4% 94%  
73 8% 90%  
74 6% 82%  
75 9% 77%  
76 16% 68%  
77 14% 52% Median
78 7% 38%  
79 7% 31%  
80 13% 24%  
81 5% 11%  
82 2% 6%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.1%  
86 0.1% 0.6% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.4%  
89 0% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.3%  
91 0% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.3%  
95 0% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.3%  
99 0% 0.3%  
100 0% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.3%  
102 0% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.3%  
104 0% 0.3%  
105 0% 0.3%  
106 0% 0.3%  
107 0% 0.3%  
108 0% 0.3%  
109 0% 0.3%  
110 0% 0.3%  
111 0% 0.3%  
112 0% 0.3%  
113 0% 0.3%  
114 0% 0.3%  
115 0% 0.3%  
116 0% 0.3%  
117 0% 0.3%  
118 0% 0.3%  
119 0% 0.3%  
120 0% 0.3%  
121 0% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.3%  
123 0% 0.3%  
124 0% 0.3%  
125 0% 0.3%  
126 0% 0.3%  
127 0% 0.3%  
128 0% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.3%  
130 0% 0.3%  
131 0% 0.3%  
132 0% 0.3%  
133 0% 0.3%  
134 0% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.7% 100% Last Result
23 1.3% 99.3%  
24 0.8% 98%  
25 3% 97%  
26 24% 95%  
27 15% 70%  
28 4% 55%  
29 12% 52% Median
30 20% 39%  
31 14% 19%  
32 0.9% 5%  
33 1.5% 4%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.6% 0.6%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 0.7% 99.6%  
14 8% 98.9%  
15 9% 91% Last Result
16 26% 82%  
17 10% 56% Median
18 25% 46%  
19 10% 21%  
20 6% 11%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.6% 1.1%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 1.1% 99.8% Last Result
10 5% 98.7%  
11 14% 93%  
12 24% 79%  
13 34% 55% Median
14 9% 21%  
15 6% 12%  
16 5% 6%  
17 0.9% 1.2%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 0% 99.7%  
8 1.0% 99.7%  
9 5% 98.6%  
10 23% 94% Last Result
11 18% 70%  
12 25% 53% Median
13 18% 27%  
14 5% 9%  
15 3% 4%  
16 1.2% 1.4%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Εθνικό Κόμμα – Έλληνες

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Εθνικό Κόμμα – Έλληνες page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98.9%  
2 0% 98.9%  
3 0% 98.9%  
4 0% 98.9%  
5 0% 98.9%  
6 0% 98.9%  
7 0% 98.9%  
8 3% 98.9%  
9 8% 96%  
10 15% 88%  
11 35% 73% Median
12 22% 38%  
13 10% 16%  
14 4% 6%  
15 1.3% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Πλεύση Ελευθερίας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Εθνική Δημιουργία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Εθνική Δημιουργία page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 171 99.7% 165–175 164–177 164–179 161–180
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 143 1.0% 138–147 136–148 135–149 133–151
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 89 0.1% 85–94 84–95 83–96 81–100
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 77 0% 73–81 71–82 70–83 68–86

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.8%  
113 0% 99.8%  
114 0% 99.7%  
115 0% 99.7%  
116 0% 99.7%  
117 0% 99.7%  
118 0% 99.7%  
119 0% 99.7%  
120 0% 99.7%  
121 0% 99.7%  
122 0% 99.7%  
123 0% 99.7%  
124 0% 99.7%  
125 0% 99.7%  
126 0% 99.7%  
127 0% 99.7%  
128 0% 99.7%  
129 0% 99.7%  
130 0% 99.7%  
131 0% 99.7%  
132 0% 99.7%  
133 0% 99.7%  
134 0% 99.7%  
135 0% 99.7%  
136 0% 99.7%  
137 0% 99.7%  
138 0% 99.7%  
139 0% 99.7%  
140 0% 99.7%  
141 0% 99.7%  
142 0% 99.7%  
143 0% 99.7%  
144 0% 99.7%  
145 0% 99.7%  
146 0% 99.7%  
147 0% 99.7%  
148 0% 99.7%  
149 0% 99.7%  
150 0% 99.7%  
151 0% 99.7% Majority
152 0% 99.7%  
153 0% 99.7%  
154 0% 99.7%  
155 0% 99.7%  
156 0% 99.7%  
157 0% 99.7%  
158 0% 99.7%  
159 0% 99.7%  
160 0% 99.6%  
161 0.4% 99.6%  
162 0.2% 99.2%  
163 1.1% 99.0%  
164 5% 98%  
165 4% 93%  
166 3% 89%  
167 2% 86%  
168 4% 85%  
169 5% 80%  
170 22% 75%  
171 16% 53%  
172 5% 37% Median
173 12% 32%  
174 7% 19%  
175 4% 12%  
176 2% 8%  
177 2% 6%  
178 2% 4%  
179 1.2% 3%  
180 0.9% 1.3% Last Result
181 0.2% 0.5%  
182 0.2% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.8%  
86 0% 99.7%  
87 0% 99.7%  
88 0% 99.7%  
89 0% 99.7%  
90 0% 99.7%  
91 0% 99.7%  
92 0% 99.7%  
93 0% 99.7%  
94 0% 99.7%  
95 0% 99.7%  
96 0% 99.7%  
97 0% 99.7%  
98 0% 99.7%  
99 0% 99.7%  
100 0% 99.7%  
101 0% 99.7%  
102 0% 99.7%  
103 0% 99.7%  
104 0% 99.7%  
105 0% 99.7%  
106 0% 99.7%  
107 0% 99.7%  
108 0% 99.7%  
109 0% 99.7%  
110 0% 99.7%  
111 0% 99.7%  
112 0% 99.7%  
113 0% 99.7%  
114 0% 99.7%  
115 0% 99.7%  
116 0% 99.7%  
117 0% 99.7%  
118 0% 99.7%  
119 0% 99.7%  
120 0% 99.7%  
121 0% 99.7%  
122 0% 99.7%  
123 0% 99.7%  
124 0% 99.7%  
125 0% 99.7%  
126 0% 99.7%  
127 0% 99.7%  
128 0% 99.7%  
129 0% 99.7%  
130 0% 99.7%  
131 0% 99.7%  
132 0.1% 99.7%  
133 0.3% 99.6%  
134 0.7% 99.3%  
135 2% 98.5%  
136 2% 97%  
137 5% 95%  
138 5% 90%  
139 4% 85%  
140 17% 81%  
141 5% 64%  
142 5% 59%  
143 7% 53% Median
144 20% 47%  
145 5% 26%  
146 6% 21%  
147 9% 16%  
148 3% 7%  
149 1.2% 3%  
150 1.2% 2%  
151 0.6% 1.0% Majority
152 0.2% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.7% 99.7%  
82 1.2% 99.0%  
83 2% 98%  
84 3% 96%  
85 4% 93%  
86 9% 89%  
87 10% 80%  
88 9% 71%  
89 18% 62%  
90 10% 44% Median
91 4% 35%  
92 11% 30%  
93 8% 19%  
94 4% 11%  
95 3% 7% Last Result
96 2% 4%  
97 0.8% 2%  
98 0.6% 1.3%  
99 0.1% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0% 0.3%  
102 0% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.3%  
104 0% 0.3%  
105 0% 0.3%  
106 0% 0.3%  
107 0% 0.3%  
108 0% 0.3%  
109 0% 0.3%  
110 0% 0.3%  
111 0% 0.3%  
112 0% 0.3%  
113 0% 0.3%  
114 0% 0.3%  
115 0% 0.3%  
116 0% 0.3%  
117 0% 0.3%  
118 0% 0.3%  
119 0% 0.3%  
120 0% 0.3%  
121 0% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.3%  
123 0% 0.3%  
124 0% 0.3%  
125 0% 0.3%  
126 0% 0.3%  
127 0% 0.3%  
128 0% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.3%  
130 0% 0.3%  
131 0% 0.3%  
132 0% 0.3%  
133 0% 0.3%  
134 0% 0.3%  
135 0% 0.3%  
136 0% 0.3%  
137 0% 0.3%  
138 0% 0.3%  
139 0% 0.3%  
140 0% 0.3%  
141 0% 0.3%  
142 0% 0.3%  
143 0% 0.3%  
144 0% 0.3%  
145 0% 0.3%  
146 0% 0.3%  
147 0% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1% Majority
152 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.4%  
70 2% 98.9%  
71 3% 97%  
72 4% 94%  
73 8% 90%  
74 6% 82%  
75 9% 77%  
76 16% 68%  
77 14% 52% Median
78 7% 38%  
79 7% 31%  
80 13% 24%  
81 5% 11%  
82 2% 6%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.1%  
86 0.1% 0.6% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.4%  
89 0% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.3%  
91 0% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.3%  
95 0% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.3%  
99 0% 0.3%  
100 0% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.3%  
102 0% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.3%  
104 0% 0.3%  
105 0% 0.3%  
106 0% 0.3%  
107 0% 0.3%  
108 0% 0.3%  
109 0% 0.3%  
110 0% 0.3%  
111 0% 0.3%  
112 0% 0.3%  
113 0% 0.3%  
114 0% 0.3%  
115 0% 0.3%  
116 0% 0.3%  
117 0% 0.3%  
118 0% 0.3%  
119 0% 0.3%  
120 0% 0.3%  
121 0% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.3%  
123 0% 0.3%  
124 0% 0.3%  
125 0% 0.3%  
126 0% 0.3%  
127 0% 0.3%  
128 0% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.3%  
130 0% 0.3%  
131 0% 0.3%  
132 0% 0.3%  
133 0% 0.3%  
134 0% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations