Opinion Poll by Opinion Poll for The TOC, 18–21 April 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 36.4% 34.5–38.4% 33.9–38.9% 33.5–39.4% 32.6–40.4%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 29.5% 27.7–31.4% 27.2–31.9% 26.8–32.4% 25.9–33.3%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 11.2% 10.0–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.4–13.3% 8.8–14.0%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.7–5.0% 2.4–5.5%
Εθνικό Κόμμα – Έλληνες 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 1.5% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%
Εθνική Δημιουργία 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 146 140–152 139–153 138–155 134–159
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 78 73–83 72–85 70–86 68–90
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 30 26–34 25–34 24–35 23–37
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 16 13–19 12–19 12–20 11–22
Ελληνική Λύση 10 13 10–15 10–16 10–17 9–18
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 10 0–12 0–13 0–14 0–15
Εθνικό Κόμμα – Έλληνες 0 10 0–12 0–13 0–13 0–14
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 0 0 0 0 0 0
Εθνική Δημιουργία 0 0 0 0 0 0

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0% 99.8%  
87 0% 99.7%  
88 0.1% 99.7%  
89 0% 99.7%  
90 0% 99.7%  
91 0% 99.6%  
92 0% 99.6%  
93 0% 99.6%  
94 0% 99.6%  
95 0% 99.6%  
96 0% 99.6%  
97 0% 99.6%  
98 0% 99.6%  
99 0% 99.6%  
100 0% 99.6%  
101 0% 99.6%  
102 0% 99.6%  
103 0% 99.6%  
104 0% 99.6%  
105 0% 99.6%  
106 0% 99.6%  
107 0% 99.6%  
108 0% 99.6%  
109 0% 99.6%  
110 0% 99.6%  
111 0% 99.6%  
112 0% 99.6%  
113 0% 99.6%  
114 0% 99.6%  
115 0% 99.6%  
116 0% 99.6%  
117 0% 99.6%  
118 0% 99.6%  
119 0% 99.6%  
120 0% 99.6%  
121 0% 99.6%  
122 0% 99.6%  
123 0% 99.6%  
124 0% 99.6%  
125 0% 99.6%  
126 0% 99.6%  
127 0% 99.6%  
128 0% 99.6%  
129 0% 99.6%  
130 0% 99.6%  
131 0% 99.6%  
132 0% 99.6%  
133 0% 99.6%  
134 0.1% 99.6%  
135 0.2% 99.5%  
136 0.4% 99.3%  
137 1.0% 98.9%  
138 2% 98%  
139 5% 96%  
140 11% 92%  
141 5% 81%  
142 4% 76%  
143 4% 72%  
144 9% 68%  
145 9% 59%  
146 8% 50% Median
147 7% 42%  
148 6% 36%  
149 4% 29%  
150 8% 26%  
151 8% 18% Majority
152 4% 10%  
153 1.5% 6%  
154 1.4% 4%  
155 0.7% 3%  
156 0.8% 2%  
157 0.5% 1.4%  
158 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
159 0.4% 0.7%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.5%  
69 0.8% 99.1%  
70 1.2% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 5% 95%  
73 7% 91%  
74 8% 84%  
75 8% 76%  
76 9% 68%  
77 8% 59%  
78 9% 51% Median
79 11% 42%  
80 8% 31%  
81 6% 23%  
82 5% 18%  
83 4% 12%  
84 2% 8%  
85 2% 6%  
86 2% 4% Last Result
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.4% 1.3%  
89 0.3% 0.9%  
90 0.1% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.5%  
92 0% 0.4%  
93 0% 0.4%  
94 0% 0.4%  
95 0% 0.4%  
96 0% 0.4%  
97 0% 0.4%  
98 0% 0.4%  
99 0% 0.4%  
100 0% 0.4%  
101 0% 0.4%  
102 0% 0.4%  
103 0% 0.4%  
104 0% 0.4%  
105 0% 0.4%  
106 0% 0.4%  
107 0% 0.4%  
108 0% 0.4%  
109 0% 0.4%  
110 0% 0.4%  
111 0% 0.4%  
112 0% 0.4%  
113 0% 0.4%  
114 0% 0.4%  
115 0% 0.4%  
116 0% 0.4%  
117 0% 0.4%  
118 0% 0.4%  
119 0% 0.4%  
120 0% 0.4%  
121 0% 0.4%  
122 0% 0.4%  
123 0% 0.4%  
124 0% 0.4%  
125 0% 0.4%  
126 0% 0.4%  
127 0% 0.4%  
128 0% 0.4%  
129 0% 0.4%  
130 0% 0.4%  
131 0% 0.4%  
132 0% 0.4%  
133 0% 0.4%  
134 0% 0.4%  
135 0% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100% Last Result
23 0.4% 99.7%  
24 2% 99.3%  
25 4% 97%  
26 7% 94%  
27 10% 87%  
28 13% 77%  
29 11% 64%  
30 14% 53% Median
31 11% 38%  
32 13% 28%  
33 4% 15%  
34 6% 10%  
35 2% 5%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.8%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.4% 99.9%  
12 5% 99.5%  
13 5% 95%  
14 11% 90%  
15 16% 78% Last Result
16 26% 62% Median
17 12% 36%  
18 13% 24%  
19 7% 11%  
20 3% 5%  
21 1.2% 2%  
22 0.5% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0.3% 99.9%  
9 2% 99.6%  
10 8% 98% Last Result
11 15% 90%  
12 20% 75%  
13 22% 55% Median
14 15% 33%  
15 9% 18%  
16 6% 9%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.7% 1.0%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 0% 90%  
8 8% 90%  
9 22% 81% Last Result
10 18% 59% Median
11 24% 42%  
12 12% 18%  
13 4% 6%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.4% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Εθνικό Κόμμα – Έλληνες

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Εθνικό Κόμμα – Έλληνες page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 0% 86%  
2 0% 86%  
3 0% 86%  
4 0% 86%  
5 0% 86%  
6 0% 86%  
7 0% 86%  
8 7% 86%  
9 24% 79%  
10 25% 56% Median
11 13% 30%  
12 11% 17%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.8% 1.1%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Πλεύση Ελευθερίας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Εθνική Δημιουργία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Εθνική Δημιουργία page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 175 99.6% 169–182 168–183 167–186 163–189
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 146 18% 140–152 139–153 138–155 134–159
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 87 0.1% 82–92 79–95 77–96 74–99
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 78 0% 73–83 72–85 70–86 68–90

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.8%  
116 0% 99.8%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0% 99.7%  
119 0% 99.7%  
120 0% 99.6%  
121 0% 99.6%  
122 0% 99.6%  
123 0% 99.6%  
124 0% 99.6%  
125 0% 99.6%  
126 0% 99.6%  
127 0% 99.6%  
128 0% 99.6%  
129 0% 99.6%  
130 0% 99.6%  
131 0% 99.6%  
132 0% 99.6%  
133 0% 99.6%  
134 0% 99.6%  
135 0% 99.6%  
136 0% 99.6%  
137 0% 99.6%  
138 0% 99.6%  
139 0% 99.6%  
140 0% 99.6%  
141 0% 99.6%  
142 0% 99.6%  
143 0% 99.6%  
144 0% 99.6%  
145 0% 99.6%  
146 0% 99.6%  
147 0% 99.6%  
148 0% 99.6%  
149 0% 99.6%  
150 0% 99.6%  
151 0% 99.6% Majority
152 0% 99.6%  
153 0% 99.6%  
154 0% 99.6%  
155 0% 99.6%  
156 0% 99.6%  
157 0% 99.6%  
158 0% 99.6%  
159 0% 99.6%  
160 0% 99.6%  
161 0% 99.6%  
162 0% 99.6%  
163 0.1% 99.6%  
164 0.2% 99.5%  
165 0.4% 99.3%  
166 1.0% 98.9%  
167 1.4% 98%  
168 3% 97%  
169 4% 93%  
170 5% 90%  
171 10% 85%  
172 10% 75%  
173 9% 66%  
174 5% 57%  
175 7% 52%  
176 3% 45% Median
177 3% 41%  
178 9% 38%  
179 5% 29%  
180 8% 24% Last Result
181 3% 16%  
182 6% 13%  
183 2% 7%  
184 0.9% 5%  
185 1.5% 4%  
186 0.9% 3%  
187 0.6% 2%  
188 0.2% 1.0%  
189 0.4% 0.8%  
190 0.1% 0.4%  
191 0.2% 0.3%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0% 99.8%  
87 0% 99.7%  
88 0.1% 99.7%  
89 0% 99.7%  
90 0% 99.7%  
91 0% 99.6%  
92 0% 99.6%  
93 0% 99.6%  
94 0% 99.6%  
95 0% 99.6%  
96 0% 99.6%  
97 0% 99.6%  
98 0% 99.6%  
99 0% 99.6%  
100 0% 99.6%  
101 0% 99.6%  
102 0% 99.6%  
103 0% 99.6%  
104 0% 99.6%  
105 0% 99.6%  
106 0% 99.6%  
107 0% 99.6%  
108 0% 99.6%  
109 0% 99.6%  
110 0% 99.6%  
111 0% 99.6%  
112 0% 99.6%  
113 0% 99.6%  
114 0% 99.6%  
115 0% 99.6%  
116 0% 99.6%  
117 0% 99.6%  
118 0% 99.6%  
119 0% 99.6%  
120 0% 99.6%  
121 0% 99.6%  
122 0% 99.6%  
123 0% 99.6%  
124 0% 99.6%  
125 0% 99.6%  
126 0% 99.6%  
127 0% 99.6%  
128 0% 99.6%  
129 0% 99.6%  
130 0% 99.6%  
131 0% 99.6%  
132 0% 99.6%  
133 0% 99.6%  
134 0.1% 99.6%  
135 0.2% 99.5%  
136 0.4% 99.3%  
137 1.0% 98.9%  
138 2% 98%  
139 5% 96%  
140 11% 92%  
141 5% 81%  
142 4% 76%  
143 4% 72%  
144 9% 68%  
145 9% 59%  
146 8% 50% Median
147 7% 42%  
148 6% 36%  
149 4% 29%  
150 8% 26%  
151 8% 18% Majority
152 4% 10%  
153 1.5% 6%  
154 1.4% 4%  
155 0.7% 3%  
156 0.8% 2%  
157 0.5% 1.4%  
158 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
159 0.4% 0.7%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.1% 99.6%  
75 0.2% 99.4%  
76 0.7% 99.2%  
77 1.2% 98.5%  
78 2% 97%  
79 1.3% 96%  
80 2% 94%  
81 2% 93%  
82 3% 90%  
83 11% 88%  
84 6% 77%  
85 11% 71%  
86 4% 60%  
87 9% 56%  
88 9% 46% Median
89 7% 38%  
90 9% 31%  
91 8% 22%  
92 4% 13%  
93 3% 9%  
94 2% 7%  
95 2% 5% Last Result
96 1.1% 3%  
97 1.2% 2%  
98 0.1% 0.8%  
99 0.2% 0.7%  
100 0% 0.5%  
101 0% 0.4%  
102 0% 0.4%  
103 0% 0.4%  
104 0% 0.4%  
105 0% 0.4%  
106 0% 0.4%  
107 0% 0.4%  
108 0% 0.4%  
109 0% 0.4%  
110 0% 0.4%  
111 0% 0.4%  
112 0% 0.4%  
113 0% 0.4%  
114 0% 0.4%  
115 0% 0.4%  
116 0% 0.4%  
117 0% 0.4%  
118 0% 0.4%  
119 0% 0.4%  
120 0% 0.4%  
121 0% 0.4%  
122 0% 0.4%  
123 0% 0.4%  
124 0% 0.4%  
125 0% 0.4%  
126 0% 0.4%  
127 0% 0.4%  
128 0% 0.4%  
129 0% 0.4%  
130 0% 0.4%  
131 0% 0.4%  
132 0% 0.4%  
133 0% 0.4%  
134 0% 0.4%  
135 0% 0.4%  
136 0% 0.4%  
137 0% 0.4%  
138 0% 0.4%  
139 0% 0.4%  
140 0% 0.4%  
141 0% 0.4%  
142 0% 0.4%  
143 0% 0.4%  
144 0% 0.3%  
145 0% 0.3%  
146 0% 0.3%  
147 0% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0.1% 0.1% Majority
152 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.5%  
69 0.8% 99.1%  
70 1.2% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 5% 95%  
73 7% 91%  
74 8% 84%  
75 8% 76%  
76 9% 68%  
77 8% 59%  
78 9% 51% Median
79 11% 42%  
80 8% 31%  
81 6% 23%  
82 5% 18%  
83 4% 12%  
84 2% 8%  
85 2% 6%  
86 2% 4% Last Result
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.4% 1.3%  
89 0.3% 0.9%  
90 0.1% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.5%  
92 0% 0.4%  
93 0% 0.4%  
94 0% 0.4%  
95 0% 0.4%  
96 0% 0.4%  
97 0% 0.4%  
98 0% 0.4%  
99 0% 0.4%  
100 0% 0.4%  
101 0% 0.4%  
102 0% 0.4%  
103 0% 0.4%  
104 0% 0.4%  
105 0% 0.4%  
106 0% 0.4%  
107 0% 0.4%  
108 0% 0.4%  
109 0% 0.4%  
110 0% 0.4%  
111 0% 0.4%  
112 0% 0.4%  
113 0% 0.4%  
114 0% 0.4%  
115 0% 0.4%  
116 0% 0.4%  
117 0% 0.4%  
118 0% 0.4%  
119 0% 0.4%  
120 0% 0.4%  
121 0% 0.4%  
122 0% 0.4%  
123 0% 0.4%  
124 0% 0.4%  
125 0% 0.4%  
126 0% 0.4%  
127 0% 0.4%  
128 0% 0.4%  
129 0% 0.4%  
130 0% 0.4%  
131 0% 0.4%  
132 0% 0.4%  
133 0% 0.4%  
134 0% 0.4%  
135 0% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations