Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 9–11 May 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 37.6% 35.9–39.4% 35.4–39.9% 34.9–40.4% 34.1–41.3%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 30.0% 28.4–31.8% 27.9–32.3% 27.5–32.7% 26.7–33.5%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 10.2% 9.2–11.4% 8.9–11.8% 8.6–12.1% 8.2–12.7%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.8% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.1% 5.5–8.3% 5.1–8.8%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 3.8% 3.2–4.6% 3.0–4.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.6–5.4%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.7% 3.1–4.5% 2.9–4.7% 2.8–4.9% 2.5–5.3%
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 1.5% 1.8% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.7% 1.0–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 152 147–157 146–159 145–160 142–163
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 82 77–86 76–88 75–89 72–92
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 28 25–31 24–32 24–33 22–34
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 19 16–21 15–22 15–23 14–24
Ελληνική Λύση 10 10 9–12 0–13 0–14 0–15
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 10 8–12 0–13 0–13 0–14
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 0 0 0 0 0 0–8

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.3% 99.7%  
143 0.6% 99.5%  
144 1.1% 98.9%  
145 2% 98%  
146 3% 96%  
147 5% 93%  
148 6% 88%  
149 8% 81%  
150 10% 74%  
151 11% 64% Majority
152 11% 53% Median
153 10% 42%  
154 8% 32%  
155 5% 24%  
156 5% 19%  
157 4% 13%  
158 3% 9% Last Result
159 2% 5%  
160 1.4% 3%  
161 0.9% 2%  
162 0.4% 1.1%  
163 0.2% 0.7%  
164 0.2% 0.5%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.6% 99.4%  
74 1.2% 98.9%  
75 2% 98%  
76 3% 95%  
77 6% 92%  
78 6% 87%  
79 10% 81%  
80 9% 71%  
81 10% 62%  
82 12% 51% Median
83 11% 40%  
84 9% 29%  
85 6% 20%  
86 5% 14% Last Result
87 3% 9%  
88 2% 6%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.2%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.8% Last Result
23 2% 99.2%  
24 5% 98%  
25 8% 93%  
26 13% 85%  
27 15% 72%  
28 18% 57% Median
29 15% 39%  
30 10% 24%  
31 7% 14%  
32 4% 7%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.8% 1.3%  
35 0.3% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.0% 99.7%  
15 4% 98.7% Last Result
16 8% 95%  
17 16% 86%  
18 20% 70%  
19 20% 50% Median
20 14% 30%  
21 9% 16%  
22 5% 8%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.7% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0% 95%  
7 0% 95%  
8 3% 95%  
9 18% 91%  
10 26% 74% Last Result, Median
11 23% 48%  
12 15% 25%  
13 7% 9%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.6% 0.7%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0% 93%  
7 0% 93%  
8 5% 93%  
9 18% 89% Last Result
10 30% 71% Median
11 19% 40%  
12 15% 22%  
13 4% 6%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Πλεύση Ελευθερίας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0% 0.6%  
6 0% 0.6%  
7 0% 0.6%  
8 0.4% 0.6%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 180 99.9% 175–185 173–187 172–189 170–192
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 152 64% 147–157 146–159 145–160 142–163
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 92 0% 86–96 84–98 83–99 80–102
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 82 0% 77–86 76–88 75–89 72–92

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9% Majority
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.9%  
169 0.3% 99.8%  
170 0.3% 99.5%  
171 0.9% 99.2%  
172 1.4% 98%  
173 2% 97%  
174 4% 95%  
175 6% 91%  
176 5% 86%  
177 11% 80%  
178 6% 70%  
179 13% 64%  
180 9% 51% Last Result, Median
181 10% 42%  
182 8% 33%  
183 6% 25%  
184 6% 19%  
185 4% 13%  
186 3% 9%  
187 3% 7%  
188 1.0% 4%  
189 1.0% 3%  
190 0.6% 2%  
191 0.4% 1.1%  
192 0.3% 0.7%  
193 0.1% 0.4%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.3% 99.7%  
143 0.6% 99.5%  
144 1.1% 98.9%  
145 2% 98%  
146 3% 96%  
147 5% 93%  
148 6% 88%  
149 8% 81%  
150 10% 74%  
151 11% 64% Majority
152 11% 53% Median
153 10% 42%  
154 8% 32%  
155 5% 24%  
156 5% 19%  
157 4% 13%  
158 3% 9% Last Result
159 2% 5%  
160 1.4% 3%  
161 0.9% 2%  
162 0.4% 1.1%  
163 0.2% 0.7%  
164 0.2% 0.5%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.7%  
80 0.3% 99.5%  
81 0.6% 99.2%  
82 0.8% 98.7%  
83 1.4% 98%  
84 2% 96%  
85 2% 95%  
86 3% 92%  
87 5% 89%  
88 5% 84%  
89 9% 78%  
90 7% 69%  
91 10% 62%  
92 13% 52% Median
93 9% 39%  
94 10% 30%  
95 7% 20% Last Result
96 4% 13%  
97 3% 9%  
98 2% 6%  
99 1.3% 4%  
100 1.1% 2%  
101 0.6% 1.2%  
102 0.3% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0% Majority

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.6% 99.4%  
74 1.2% 98.9%  
75 2% 98%  
76 3% 95%  
77 6% 92%  
78 6% 87%  
79 10% 81%  
80 9% 71%  
81 10% 62%  
82 12% 51% Median
83 11% 40%  
84 9% 29%  
85 6% 20%  
86 5% 14% Last Result
87 3% 9%  
88 2% 6%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.2%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations