Opinion Poll by Metron Analysis for Mega TV, 4–11 May 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 36.1% 34.8–37.5% 34.4–37.9% 34.1–38.2% 33.4–38.9%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 28.0% 26.7–29.3% 26.4–29.6% 26.1–29.9% 25.5–30.6%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 10.3% 9.5–11.2% 9.3–11.5% 9.1–11.7% 8.7–12.1%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 7.3% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.0–8.9%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 4.4% 3.9–5.1% 3.7–5.2% 3.6–5.4% 3.4–5.7%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 3.3% 2.8–3.8% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.4%
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 1.5% 2.4% 2.0–2.9% 1.9–3.0% 1.8–3.2% 1.7–3.4%
Εθνική Δημιουργία 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 151 147–156 146–157 145–158 143–160
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 79 75–82 74–84 73–85 71–87
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 29 27–32 26–32 25–33 24–34
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 21 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 13 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Ελληνική Λύση 10 9 0–11 0–11 0–11 0–12
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 0 0 0 0–8 0–9 0–9
Εθνική Δημιουργία 0 0 0 0 0 0

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0.3% 99.9%  
143 0.4% 99.6%  
144 1.4% 99.2%  
145 2% 98%  
146 3% 96%  
147 6% 93%  
148 5% 86%  
149 13% 81%  
150 10% 68%  
151 12% 58% Median, Majority
152 11% 46%  
153 8% 34%  
154 8% 27%  
155 7% 19%  
156 3% 12%  
157 5% 8%  
158 1.2% 3% Last Result
159 1.3% 2%  
160 0.2% 0.7%  
161 0.2% 0.4%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.7% 99.7%  
72 1.1% 99.0%  
73 2% 98%  
74 5% 96%  
75 11% 91%  
76 11% 80%  
77 9% 69%  
78 8% 59%  
79 7% 51% Median
80 15% 45%  
81 11% 30%  
82 10% 19%  
83 3% 9%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.1% 3%  
86 0.7% 1.5% Last Result
87 0.4% 0.8%  
88 0.3% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.4%  
26 5% 97%  
27 11% 92%  
28 20% 81%  
29 25% 60% Median
30 17% 36%  
31 8% 19%  
32 7% 11%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.7% 1.1%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 8% 98%  
19 18% 90%  
20 22% 72%  
21 21% 50% Median
22 16% 29%  
23 9% 13%  
24 3% 4%  
25 1.0% 1.3%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100% Last Result
10 4% 99.5%  
11 16% 95%  
12 26% 79%  
13 33% 53% Median
14 14% 20%  
15 5% 6%  
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 0% 78%  
2 0% 78%  
3 0% 78%  
4 0% 78%  
5 0% 78%  
6 0% 78%  
7 0% 78%  
8 2% 78%  
9 38% 76% Median
10 27% 38% Last Result
11 9% 12%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Πλεύση Ελευθερίας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 0% 6%  
8 2% 6%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Εθνική Δημιουργία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Εθνική Δημιουργία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 180 100% 176–185 174–187 173–188 171–190
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 151 58% 147–156 146–157 145–158 143–160
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 91 0% 87–95 86–97 85–97 83–100
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 79 0% 75–82 74–84 73–85 71–87

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0.1% 100%  
170 0.2% 99.9%  
171 0.4% 99.7%  
172 0.8% 99.3%  
173 1.1% 98%  
174 3% 97%  
175 4% 95%  
176 5% 91%  
177 9% 86%  
178 9% 76%  
179 12% 68%  
180 10% 56% Last Result, Median
181 11% 46%  
182 6% 35%  
183 8% 28%  
184 5% 20%  
185 5% 15%  
186 4% 10%  
187 2% 6%  
188 2% 3%  
189 0.5% 1.2%  
190 0.3% 0.7%  
191 0.2% 0.4%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0.3% 99.9%  
143 0.4% 99.6%  
144 1.4% 99.2%  
145 2% 98%  
146 3% 96%  
147 6% 93%  
148 5% 86%  
149 13% 81%  
150 10% 68%  
151 12% 58% Median, Majority
152 11% 46%  
153 8% 34%  
154 8% 27%  
155 7% 19%  
156 3% 12%  
157 5% 8%  
158 1.2% 3% Last Result
159 1.3% 2%  
160 0.2% 0.7%  
161 0.2% 0.4%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.3% 99.9%  
83 0.8% 99.6%  
84 0.6% 98.8%  
85 0.9% 98%  
86 7% 97%  
87 7% 90%  
88 5% 83%  
89 10% 79%  
90 14% 69%  
91 10% 55%  
92 4% 45% Median
93 15% 41%  
94 15% 26%  
95 2% 11% Last Result
96 3% 9%  
97 4% 6%  
98 1.3% 2%  
99 0.2% 1.0%  
100 0.4% 0.8%  
101 0.3% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.7% 99.7%  
72 1.1% 99.0%  
73 2% 98%  
74 5% 96%  
75 11% 91%  
76 11% 80%  
77 9% 69%  
78 8% 59%  
79 7% 51% Median
80 15% 45%  
81 11% 30%  
82 10% 19%  
83 3% 9%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.1% 3%  
86 0.7% 1.5% Last Result
87 0.4% 0.8%  
88 0.3% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations