Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Mail on Sunday, 19–20 June 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 22.3% | 33.7% | 31.8–35.7% | 31.3–36.2% | 30.8–36.7% | 29.9–37.6% |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 19.5% | 26.7% | 25.0–28.5% | 24.5–29.1% | 24.1–29.5% | 23.2–30.4% |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 22.3% | 12.9% | 11.6–14.4% | 11.3–14.8% | 11.0–15.1% | 10.4–15.9% |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 4.9% | 7.9% | 6.9–9.1% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.4–9.7% | 5.9–10.3% |
| Independents (*) | 19.8% | 6.6% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.9% |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 4 | 5 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 3 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independents (*) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fine Gael (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 74% | 100% | Median |
| 6 | 15% | 26% | |
| 7 | 9% | 11% | Majority |
| 8 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 12% | 97% | |
| 5 | 42% | 85% | Median |
| 6 | 43% | 43% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 50% | 50% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Social Democrats (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 80% | 80% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 4 | 5 | 11% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fine Gael (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 74% | 100% | Median |
| 6 | 15% | 26% | |
| 7 | 9% | 11% | Majority |
| 8 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 50% | 50% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 80% | 80% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ireland Thinks
- Commissioner(s): Mail on Sunday
- Fieldwork period: 19–20 June 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.07%