# Opinion Poll by EMG Acqua for Rai 3, 25 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

## Voting Intentions

### Confidence Intervals

Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Lega Nord (EAPN) | 6.2% | 31.3% | 29.8–32.9% | 29.4–33.3% | 29.1–33.7% | 28.3–34.5% |

Movimento 5 Stelle (EFDD) | 21.2% | 23.1% | 21.8–24.6% | 21.4–25.0% | 21.1–25.3% | 20.5–26.0% |

Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 22.6% | 21.3–24.1% | 20.9–24.4% | 20.6–24.8% | 20.0–25.5% |

Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 10.2% | 9.3–11.3% | 9.0–11.6% | 8.8–11.9% | 8.4–12.4% |

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.7–6.2% | 4.5–6.4% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.0–7.0% |

Più Europa (ALDE) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.4–3.5% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 1.9–4.2% |

*Note:* The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

## Seats

### Confidence Intervals

Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Lega Nord (EAPN) | 5 | 24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–27 |

Movimento 5 Stelle (EFDD) | 17 | 17 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 |

Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 16 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |

Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 |

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |

Più Europa (ALDE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |

### Lega Nord (EAPN)

*For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (EAPN) page.*

Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|

5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |

6 | 0% | 100% | |

7 | 0% | 100% | |

8 | 0% | 100% | |

9 | 0% | 100% | |

10 | 0% | 100% | |

11 | 0% | 100% | |

12 | 0% | 100% | |

13 | 0% | 100% | |

14 | 0% | 100% | |

15 | 0% | 100% | |

16 | 0% | 100% | |

17 | 0% | 100% | |

18 | 0% | 100% | |

19 | 0% | 100% | |

20 | 0% | 100% | |

21 | 1.0% | 100% | |

22 | 10% | 99.0% | |

23 | 32% | 89% | |

24 | 35% | 57% | Median |

25 | 17% | 22% | |

26 | 4% | 5% | |

27 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |

28 | 0% | 0% |

### Movimento 5 Stelle (EFDD)

*For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (EFDD) page.*

Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|

15 | 0.8% | 100% | |

16 | 11% | 99.2% | |

17 | 40% | 88% | Last Result, Median |

18 | 35% | 48% | |

19 | 12% | 13% | |

20 | 2% | 2% | |

21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |

22 | 0% | 0% |

### Partito Democratico (S&D)

*For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.*

Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|

13 | 0.1% | 100% | |

14 | 3% | 99.9% | |

15 | 22% | 97% | |

16 | 41% | 75% | Median |

17 | 27% | 34% | |

18 | 7% | 7% | |

19 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |

20 | 0% | 0% | |

21 | 0% | 0% | |

22 | 0% | 0% | |

23 | 0% | 0% | |

24 | 0% | 0% | |

25 | 0% | 0% | |

26 | 0% | 0% | |

27 | 0% | 0% | |

28 | 0% | 0% | |

29 | 0% | 0% | |

30 | 0% | 0% | |

31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |

### Forza Italia (EPP)

*For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.*

Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|

6 | 2% | 100% | |

7 | 31% | 98% | |

8 | 55% | 67% | Median |

9 | 12% | 12% | |

10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |

11 | 0% | 0% | |

12 | 0% | 0% | |

13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |

### Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

*For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.*

Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|

0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |

1 | 0% | 99.6% | |

2 | 0% | 99.6% | |

3 | 8% | 99.6% | |

4 | 72% | 92% | Median |

5 | 19% | 20% | |

6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |

7 | 0% | 0% |

### Più Europa (ALDE)

*For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (ALDE) page.*

Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|

0 | 98.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |

1 | 0% | 1.3% | |

2 | 0% | 1.3% | |

3 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |

4 | 0% | 0% |

## Coalitions

### Confidence Intervals

Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Lega Nord (EAPN) | 5 | 24 | 0% | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–27 |

Movimento 5 Stelle (EFDD) | 17 | 17 | 0% | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 |

### Lega Nord (EAPN)

Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|

5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |

6 | 0% | 100% | |

7 | 0% | 100% | |

8 | 0% | 100% | |

9 | 0% | 100% | |

10 | 0% | 100% | |

11 | 0% | 100% | |

12 | 0% | 100% | |

13 | 0% | 100% | |

14 | 0% | 100% | |

15 | 0% | 100% | |

16 | 0% | 100% | |

17 | 0% | 100% | |

18 | 0% | 100% | |

19 | 0% | 100% | |

20 | 0% | 100% | |

21 | 1.0% | 100% | |

22 | 10% | 99.0% | |

23 | 32% | 89% | |

24 | 35% | 57% | Median |

25 | 17% | 22% | |

26 | 4% | 5% | |

27 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |

28 | 0% | 0% |

### Movimento 5 Stelle (EFDD)

Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|

15 | 0.8% | 100% | |

16 | 11% | 99.2% | |

17 | 40% | 88% | Last Result, Median |

18 | 35% | 48% | |

19 | 12% | 13% | |

20 | 2% | 2% | |

21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |

22 | 0% | 0% |

## Technical Information

### Opinion Poll

**Polling firm:**EMG Acqua**Commissioner(s):**Rai 3**Fieldwork period:**25 April 2019

### Calculations

**Sample size:**1525**Simulations done:**1,048,576**Error estimate:**0.56%