Opinion Poll by EMG Acqua for Rai 3, 25 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (EAPN) 6.2% 31.3% 29.8–32.9% 29.4–33.3% 29.1–33.7% 28.3–34.5%
Movimento 5 Stelle (EFDD) 21.2% 23.1% 21.8–24.6% 21.4–25.0% 21.1–25.3% 20.5–26.0%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 40.8% 22.6% 21.3–24.1% 20.9–24.4% 20.6–24.8% 20.0–25.5%
Forza Italia (EPP) 16.8% 10.2% 9.3–11.3% 9.0–11.6% 8.8–11.9% 8.4–12.4%
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 3.7% 5.4% 4.7–6.2% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.6% 4.0–7.0%
Più Europa (ALDE) 0.0% 2.9% 2.4–3.5% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (EAPN) 5 24 22–25 22–25 22–26 21–27
Movimento 5 Stelle (EFDD) 17 17 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Partito Democratico (S&D) 31 16 15–17 15–18 14–18 14–19
Forza Italia (EPP) 13 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–9
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Più Europa (ALDE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3

Lega Nord (EAPN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (EAPN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 1.0% 100%  
22 10% 99.0%  
23 32% 89%  
24 35% 57% Median
25 17% 22%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (EFDD)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (EFDD) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.8% 100%  
16 11% 99.2%  
17 40% 88% Last Result, Median
18 35% 48%  
19 12% 13%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9%  
15 22% 97%  
16 41% 75% Median
17 27% 34%  
18 7% 7%  
19 0.6% 0.6%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 31% 98%  
8 55% 67% Median
9 12% 12%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 8% 99.6%  
4 72% 92% Median
5 19% 20%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Più Europa (ALDE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (ALDE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.3%  
2 0% 1.3%  
3 1.2% 1.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (EAPN) 5 24 0% 22–25 22–25 22–26 21–27
Movimento 5 Stelle (EFDD) 17 17 0% 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20

Lega Nord (EAPN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 1.0% 100%  
22 10% 99.0%  
23 32% 89%  
24 35% 57% Median
25 17% 22%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (EFDD)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.8% 100%  
16 11% 99.2%  
17 40% 88% Last Result, Median
18 35% 48%  
19 12% 13%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations