Lega Nord (EAPN)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 6.2% (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 35.6% | 33.4–37.8% | 32.8–38.4% | 32.2–38.9% | 31.0–39.9% |
| 19–24 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
37.3% | 35.7–39.0% | 35.3–39.4% | 34.9–39.8% | 34.2–40.6% |
| 19–20 June 2019 | Demopolis LA7 |
35.2% | 33.6–36.8% | 33.2–37.3% | 32.8–37.7% | 32.1–38.4% |
| 1–18 June 2019 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 3 |
35.0% | 33.1–37.0% | 32.6–37.5% | 32.1–38.0% | 31.2–39.0% |
| 18 June 2019 | EMG Rai 3 |
35.0% | 33.6–36.4% | 33.2–36.9% | 32.8–37.2% | 32.1–37.9% |
| 12–17 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
37.0% | 35.4–38.6% | 35.0–39.1% | 34.6–39.5% | 33.8–40.3% |
| 13 June 2019 | Index Research LA7 |
34.9% | 32.8–37.1% | 32.2–37.7% | 31.6–38.3% | 30.7–39.3% |
| 11 June 2019 | EMG Rai 3 |
35.2% | 33.8–36.7% | 33.3–37.1% | 33.0–37.5% | 32.3–38.2% |
| 9–10 June 2019 | Tecnè Rete 4 |
36.0% | 34.1–38.0% | 33.5–38.5% | 33.1–39.0% | 32.2–40.0% |
| 5–10 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
37.3% | 35.7–39.0% | 35.3–39.4% | 34.9–39.8% | 34.2–40.6% |
| 10 June 2019 | Piepoli Rai 1 |
35.0% | 32.4–37.8% | 31.7–38.6% | 31.0–39.3% | 29.8–40.7% |
| 1–10 June 2019 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 3 |
35.0% | 33.1–37.0% | 32.6–37.5% | 32.1–38.0% | 31.2–39.0% |
| 10 June 2019 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
35.1% | 33.0–37.3% | 32.4–38.0% | 31.9–38.5% | 30.9–39.6% |
| 1–7 June 2019 | Index Research LA7 |
34.0% | 31.9–36.2% | 31.3–36.8% | 30.8–37.4% | 29.8–38.4% |
| 2–3 June 2019 | Tecnè Rete 4 |
35.8% | 33.9–37.8% | 33.3–38.3% | 32.9–38.8% | 32.0–39.8% |
| 29 May–3 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
36.5% | 34.9–38.1% | 34.5–38.6% | 34.1–39.0% | 33.4–39.8% |
| 1 June 2019 | EMG Affari Internazionali |
34.2% | 32.7–35.7% | 32.3–36.2% | 31.9–36.5% | 31.2–37.3% |
| 30 May 2019 | Piepoli Rai 1 |
35.0% | 33.1–37.0% | 32.6–37.5% | 32.1–38.0% | 31.2–39.0% |
| 28–29 May 2019 | Scenari Politici–Winpoll | 36.3% | 34.7–37.9% | 34.2–38.3% | 33.9–38.7% | 33.1–39.5% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Lega Nord (EAPN).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 8% | 96% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 16% | 89% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 22% | 73% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 22% | 50% | Median |
| 36.5–37.5% | 16% | 28% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 8% | 12% | |
| 38.5–39.5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 39.5–40.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 40.5–41.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41.5–42.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 5 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 27 | 25–29 | 25–29 | 24–30 | 23–31 |
| 19–24 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
29 | 27–30 | 27–31 | 27–31 | 26–32 |
| 19–20 June 2019 | Demopolis LA7 |
26 | 25–27 | 24–27 | 24–27 | 23–28 |
| 1–18 June 2019 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 3 |
27 | 25–28 | 25–29 | 24–29 | 24–30 |
| 18 June 2019 | EMG Rai 3 |
28 | 26–29 | 26–29 | 26–29 | 25–30 |
| 12–17 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
28 | 27–30 | 27–30 | 26–31 | 26–32 |
| 13 June 2019 | Index Research LA7 |
27 | 25–29 | 25–29 | 24–30 | 23–30 |
| 11 June 2019 | EMG Rai 3 |
28 | 26–29 | 26–29 | 26–30 | 25–30 |
| 9–10 June 2019 | Tecnè Rete 4 |
26 | 25–28 | 24–28 | 24–28 | 23–29 |
| 5–10 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
29 | 27–30 | 27–31 | 27–31 | 26–32 |
| 10 June 2019 | Piepoli Rai 1 |
27 | 25–29 | 24–29 | 23–30 | 22–31 |
| 1–10 June 2019 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 3 |
27 | 26–29 | 25–29 | 25–30 | 24–30 |
| 10 June 2019 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
27 | 25–29 | 25–30 | 24–30 | 23–31 |
| 1–7 June 2019 | Index Research LA7 |
25 | 24–27 | 23–28 | 23–28 | 22–29 |
| 2–3 June 2019 | Tecnè Rete 4 |
26 | 25–27 | 24–28 | 24–28 | 23–29 |
| 29 May–3 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
28 | 27–29 | 26–30 | 26–30 | 25–31 |
| 1 June 2019 | EMG Affari Internazionali |
27 | 26–28 | 25–29 | 25–29 | 24–30 |
| 30 May 2019 | Piepoli Rai 1 |
27 | 25–28 | 25–29 | 24–29 | 24–30 |
| 28–29 May 2019 | Scenari Politici–Winpoll | 28 | 26–29 | 26–29 | 26–30 | 25–31 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Lega Nord (EAPN).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 25 | 12% | 96% | |
| 26 | 21% | 84% | |
| 27 | 26% | 62% | Median |
| 28 | 21% | 37% | |
| 29 | 11% | 16% | |
| 30 | 4% | 5% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |