Movimento 5 Stelle (EFDD)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 21.2% (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 17.8% | 16.0–19.7% | 15.5–20.3% | 15.0–20.8% | 14.2–22.0% |
| 19–24 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
18.0% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.4–19.7% | 16.1–20.0% | 15.6–20.7% |
| 19–20 June 2019 | Demopolis LA7 |
18.5% | 17.3–19.9% | 16.9–20.3% | 16.6–20.6% | 16.1–21.2% |
| 1–18 June 2019 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 3 |
17.5% | 16.0–19.1% | 15.6–19.6% | 15.3–20.0% | 14.6–20.8% |
| 18 June 2019 | EMG Rai 3 |
17.9% | 16.8–19.1% | 16.5–19.4% | 16.2–19.8% | 15.7–20.3% |
| 12–17 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
18.3% | 17.1–19.7% | 16.8–20.0% | 16.4–20.4% | 15.9–21.0% |
| 13 June 2019 | Index Research LA7 |
19.4% | 17.7–21.3% | 17.2–21.8% | 16.8–22.3% | 16.0–23.2% |
| 11 June 2019 | EMG Rai 3 |
18.0% | 16.8–19.2% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.2–19.9% | 15.7–20.5% |
| 9–10 June 2019 | Tecnè Rete 4 |
16.9% | 15.5–18.5% | 15.0–19.0% | 14.7–19.4% | 14.0–20.1% |
| 5–10 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
18.4% | 17.2–19.7% | 16.8–20.1% | 16.5–20.5% | 15.9–21.1% |
| 10 June 2019 | Piepoli Rai 1 |
17.0% | 15.0–19.3% | 14.5–20.0% | 14.0–20.6% | 13.1–21.7% |
| 1–10 June 2019 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 3 |
18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
| 10 June 2019 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
18.0% | 16.4–19.8% | 15.9–20.4% | 15.5–20.8% | 14.7–21.7% |
| 1–7 June 2019 | Index Research LA7 |
18.9% | 17.2–20.7% | 16.7–21.3% | 16.3–21.7% | 15.5–22.7% |
| 2–3 June 2019 | Tecnè Rete 4 |
16.8% | 15.4–18.4% | 15.0–18.9% | 14.6–19.3% | 13.9–20.0% |
| 29 May–3 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
17.5% | 16.3–18.9% | 16.0–19.2% | 15.7–19.6% | 15.1–20.2% |
| 1 June 2019 | EMG Affari Internazionali |
19.1% | 17.9–20.4% | 17.6–20.8% | 17.3–21.1% | 16.7–21.8% |
| 30 May 2019 | Piepoli Rai 1 |
17.0% | 15.5–18.6% | 15.1–19.1% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.1–20.3% |
| 28–29 May 2019 | Scenari Politici–Winpoll | 16.5% | 15.3–17.8% | 15.0–18.2% | 14.7–18.5% | 14.2–19.1% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Movimento 5 Stelle (EFDD).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 14% | 94% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 24% | 81% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 27% | 57% | Median |
| 18.5–19.5% | 18% | 30% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 8% | 11% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 17 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 14 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 11–17 |
| 19–24 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
14 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 |
| 19–20 June 2019 | Demopolis LA7 |
14 | 13–14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 |
| 1–18 June 2019 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 3 |
13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| 18 June 2019 | EMG Rai 3 |
14 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–16 |
| 12–17 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–16 |
| 13 June 2019 | Index Research LA7 |
15 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| 11 June 2019 | EMG Rai 3 |
14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–16 |
| 9–10 June 2019 | Tecnè Rete 4 |
12 | 12–13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 |
| 5–10 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–16 |
| 10 June 2019 | Piepoli Rai 1 |
13 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| 1–10 June 2019 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 3 |
14 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| 10 June 2019 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
14 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| 1–7 June 2019 | Index Research LA7 |
14 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| 2–3 June 2019 | Tecnè Rete 4 |
12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 |
| 29 May–3 June 2019 | SWG LA7 |
13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 |
| 1 June 2019 | EMG Affari Internazionali |
15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–17 |
| 30 May 2019 | Piepoli Rai 1 |
13 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| 28–29 May 2019 | Scenari Politici–Winpoll | 13 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Movimento 5 Stelle (EFDD).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 17% | 97% | |
| 13 | 29% | 79% | |
| 14 | 30% | 50% | Median |
| 15 | 15% | 20% | |
| 16 | 4% | 5% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |