Opinion Poll by Factum Interactive, 1–31 October 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA | 6.7% | 15.9% | 14.8–17.0% | 14.5–17.3% | 14.3–17.6% | 13.8–18.2% |
| Attīstībai/Par! | 12.0% | 14.1% | 13.1–15.2% | 12.8–15.5% | 12.6–15.8% | 12.1–16.3% |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” | 19.8% | 12.6% | 11.7–13.7% | 11.4–13.9% | 11.2–14.2% | 10.7–14.7% |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” | 11.0% | 11.8% | 10.9–12.8% | 10.6–13.1% | 10.4–13.4% | 10.0–13.9% |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.2–9.9% | 8.0–10.1% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.4–10.8% |
| PROGRESĪVIE | 2.6% | 6.4% | 5.7–7.2% | 5.5–7.4% | 5.4–7.6% | 5.1–8.0% |
| Likums un kārtība | 0.0% | 6.4% | 5.7–7.2% | 5.5–7.4% | 5.4–7.6% | 5.1–8.0% |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 13.6% | 5.1% | 4.5–5.8% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.2–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% |
| Latvija pirmajā vietā | N/A | 4.5% | 3.9–5.2% | 3.8–5.4% | 3.6–5.5% | 3.4–5.9% |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.3–4.4% | 3.1–4.6% | 3.0–4.8% | 2.8–5.1% |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.4% | 2.5–4.7% |
| Republika | N/A | 2.2% | 1.8–2.7% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% |
| Politiskā partija „KPV LV” | 14.2% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA | 8 | 19 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–23 |
| Attīstībai/Par! | 13 | 16 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” | 23 | 17 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 15–20 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” | 13 | 15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 11 | 12 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| PROGRESĪVIE | 0 | 7 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 |
| Likums un kārtība | 0 | 7 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 16 | 7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Latvija pirmajā vietā | N/A | 0 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Republika | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Politiskā partija „KPV LV” | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |