Opinion Poll by Factum Interactive, 1–30 November 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA | 6.7% | 16.9% | 15.3–18.6% | 14.9–19.1% | 14.5–19.5% | 13.8–20.4% |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” | 19.8% | 12.9% | 11.6–14.5% | 11.2–15.0% | 10.9–15.3% | 10.2–16.1% |
| Attīstībai/Par! | 12.0% | 12.6% | 11.2–14.1% | 10.9–14.6% | 10.5–15.0% | 9.9–15.7% |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” | 11.0% | 11.4% | 10.2–12.9% | 9.8–13.4% | 9.5–13.7% | 8.9–14.5% |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.2–10.7% | 7.9–11.1% | 7.6–11.5% | 7.1–12.2% |
| PROGRESĪVIE | 2.6% | 5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.5–7.7% | 4.1–8.3% |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 13.6% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.7% | 4.4–7.0% | 4.2–7.3% | 3.8–7.9% |
| Likums un kārtība | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.1–7.1% | 3.7–7.7% |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.0–5.9% | 3.8–6.2% | 3.6–6.5% | 3.2–7.0% |
| Latvija pirmajā vietā | N/A | 4.6% | 3.8–5.7% | 3.6–6.0% | 3.4–6.2% | 3.1–6.8% |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.4% | 1.8–4.8% |
| Republika | N/A | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% | 1.0–3.5% |
| Politiskā partija „KPV LV” | 14.2% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.7% | 0.3–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA | 8 | 20 | 17–23 | 17–25 | 17–25 | 16–26 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” | 23 | 16 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| Attīstībai/Par! | 13 | 15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 11–20 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” | 13 | 14 | 10–17 | 10–17 | 10–17 | 10–18 |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 11 | 12 | 11–14 | 10–15 | 8–15 | 7–16 |
| PROGRESĪVIE | 0 | 7 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–11 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 16 | 7 | 0–8 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–9 |
| Likums un kārtība | 0 | 7 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–11 |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība | 0 | 0 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Latvija pirmajā vietā | N/A | 0 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–10 |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Republika | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Politiskā partija „KPV LV” | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |