Opinion Poll by Factum Interactive, 1–31 December 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA | 6.7% | 16.9% | 15.7–18.2% | 15.3–18.6% | 15.0–18.9% | 14.4–19.6% |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” | 19.8% | 12.2% | 11.1–13.4% | 10.8–13.7% | 10.6–14.0% | 10.1–14.6% |
| Attīstībai/Par! | 12.0% | 12.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.6–13.5% | 10.4–13.8% | 9.9–14.4% |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” | 11.0% | 11.5% | 10.5–12.7% | 10.2–13.0% | 9.9–13.3% | 9.4–13.8% |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.6–10.6% | 8.3–10.9% | 8.1–11.2% | 7.7–11.7% |
| PROGRESĪVIE | 2.6% | 6.6% | 5.8–7.5% | 5.6–7.8% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.1–8.5% |
| Likums un kārtība | 0.0% | 6.4% | 5.6–7.3% | 5.4–7.6% | 5.2–7.8% | 4.9–8.2% |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 13.6% | 6.1% | 5.3–7.0% | 5.1–7.3% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.6–7.9% |
| Latvija pirmajā vietā | N/A | 4.5% | 3.8–5.3% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.2–6.1% |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.5–4.9% | 3.3–5.1% | 3.2–5.3% | 2.9–5.7% |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.5–4.1% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.2–4.6% |
| Republika | N/A | 1.7% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.8% |
| Politiskā partija „KPV LV” | 14.2% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA | 8 | 22 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 18–23 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” | 23 | 16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 |
| Attīstībai/Par! | 13 | 15 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” | 13 | 14 | 13–14 | 13–14 | 12–15 | 10–17 |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 11 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–14 |
| PROGRESĪVIE | 0 | 9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Likums un kārtība | 0 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 0–10 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 16 | 7 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 |
| Latvija pirmajā vietā | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–6 |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Republika | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Politiskā partija „KPV LV” | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |