Opinion Poll by TNS Ilres and Kantar Public for Luxemburger Wort and RTL, 10–24 November 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei |
28.3% |
25.7% |
24.4–27.0% |
24.1–27.4% |
23.8–27.7% |
23.2–28.4% |
Demokratesch Partei |
16.9% |
19.9% |
18.8–21.1% |
18.4–21.5% |
18.2–21.8% |
17.6–22.4% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei |
17.6% |
19.8% |
18.7–21.0% |
18.3–21.4% |
18.0–21.7% |
17.5–22.3% |
déi gréng |
15.1% |
11.5% |
10.6–12.5% |
10.3–12.8% |
10.1–13.0% |
9.7–13.5% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei |
8.3% |
9.6% |
8.7–10.5% |
8.5–10.8% |
8.3–11.0% |
7.9–11.5% |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg |
6.4% |
5.9% |
5.3–6.7% |
5.1–6.9% |
4.9–7.1% |
4.6–7.5% |
déi Lénk |
5.5% |
5.8% |
5.2–6.6% |
5.0–6.8% |
4.8–7.0% |
4.5–7.3% |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg |
1.3% |
0.9% |
0.7–1.3% |
0.6–1.4% |
0.6–1.4% |
0.5–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
16 |
8% |
99.5% |
|
17 |
62% |
92% |
Median |
18 |
25% |
30% |
|
19 |
5% |
5% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Demokratesch Partei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
13 |
55% |
99.9% |
Median |
14 |
27% |
45% |
|
15 |
17% |
17% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
11 |
10% |
99.3% |
|
12 |
47% |
89% |
Median |
13 |
42% |
42% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
déi gréng
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
23% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
29% |
77% |
Median |
8 |
48% |
48% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.7% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
71% |
99.2% |
Median |
6 |
12% |
29% |
|
7 |
17% |
17% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
6% |
100% |
|
2 |
85% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
8% |
10% |
|
4 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
déi Lénk
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi Lénk page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
93% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
7% |
7% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Demokratesch Partei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – déi gréng |
31 |
33 |
99.6% |
32–34 |
32–34 |
31–35 |
31–35 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei |
33 |
31 |
60% |
30–32 |
30–32 |
29–33 |
29–33 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei |
31 |
30 |
7% |
28–30 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
27–32 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei |
21 |
17 |
0% |
17–18 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
Demokratesch Partei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – déi gréng
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
31 |
4% |
99.6% |
Last Result, Majority |
32 |
21% |
96% |
Median |
33 |
33% |
75% |
|
34 |
38% |
42% |
|
35 |
5% |
5% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
36% |
97% |
Median |
31 |
33% |
60% |
Majority |
32 |
24% |
28% |
|
33 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
12% |
99.1% |
|
29 |
24% |
87% |
Median |
30 |
56% |
63% |
|
31 |
6% |
7% |
Last Result, Majority |
32 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
16 |
8% |
99.5% |
|
17 |
62% |
92% |
Median |
18 |
25% |
30% |
|
19 |
5% |
5% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS Ilres and Kantar Public
- Commissioner(s): Luxemburger Wort and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 10–24 November 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1879
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.45%