Opinion Poll by Polis, 4–8 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 25.0% 26.2% 24.5–27.9% 24.0–28.4% 23.6–28.9% 22.9–29.7%
SMER–sociálna demokracia 18.3% 21.2% 19.7–22.9% 19.3–23.4% 18.9–23.8% 18.2–24.6%
Sloboda a Solidarita 6.2% 8.2% 7.3–9.4% 7.0–9.7% 6.7–10.0% 6.3–10.6%
SME RODINA 8.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.4% 6.5–9.7% 6.1–10.3%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 7.5% 6.6–8.6% 6.3–8.9% 6.1–9.2% 5.7–9.8%
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 7.0% 7.4% 6.5–8.5% 6.2–8.8% 6.0–9.1% 5.6–9.7%
Za ľudí 5.8% 4.8% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.7%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.6% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.1–5.5% 2.8–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 53 49 46–54 44–58 44–59 41–59
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 41 37–46 36–46 34–48 33–50
Sloboda a Solidarita 13 16 14–18 13–18 12–19 11–20
SME RODINA 17 15 13–17 13–18 12–19 11–20
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 17 14 12–16 12–17 11–18 11–19
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 14 0–16 0–16 0–17 0–18
Za ľudí 12 0 0–10 0–11 0–11 0–12
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 0 0 0–10 0–10 0–11

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 0.8% 99.4%  
43 1.1% 98.6%  
44 3% 98%  
45 5% 95%  
46 6% 90%  
47 2% 85%  
48 11% 82%  
49 22% 71% Median
50 8% 49%  
51 2% 41%  
52 2% 39%  
53 12% 36% Last Result
54 15% 24%  
55 2% 9%  
56 0.3% 7%  
57 1.1% 7%  
58 3% 6%  
59 3% 3%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 1.1% 99.8%  
34 1.4% 98.6%  
35 2% 97%  
36 4% 95%  
37 7% 92%  
38 10% 84% Last Result
39 7% 74%  
40 13% 67%  
41 13% 54% Median
42 10% 41%  
43 8% 31%  
44 7% 23%  
45 4% 16%  
46 7% 12%  
47 1.3% 5%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.7% 1.4%  
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.9%  
12 3% 99.4%  
13 3% 97% Last Result
14 8% 93%  
15 15% 85%  
16 23% 70% Median
17 26% 47%  
18 16% 21%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.6% 0.9%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.2% 99.8%  
12 4% 98.7%  
13 12% 95%  
14 16% 83%  
15 20% 66% Median
16 24% 47%  
17 15% 23% Last Result
18 5% 9%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.8% 1.1%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 2% 99.6%  
12 10% 97%  
13 17% 87%  
14 28% 70% Median
15 18% 42%  
16 15% 24%  
17 4% 9% Last Result
18 3% 4%  
19 1.0% 1.1%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 0% 64%  
2 0% 64%  
3 0% 64%  
4 0% 64%  
5 0% 64%  
6 0% 64%  
7 0% 64%  
8 0% 64%  
9 0% 64%  
10 0% 64%  
11 0% 64%  
12 1.4% 64%  
13 9% 63%  
14 27% 53% Median
15 12% 26%  
16 10% 14%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.7% 0.9%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Za ľudí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Median
1 0% 28%  
2 0% 28%  
3 0% 28%  
4 0% 28%  
5 0% 28%  
6 0% 28%  
7 0% 28%  
8 0% 28%  
9 8% 28%  
10 13% 20%  
11 6% 7%  
12 1.5% 2% Last Result
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0% 8%  
7 0% 8%  
8 0% 8%  
9 3% 8%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.8% 1.0%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti – Sloboda a Solidarita – SME RODINA – Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia – Za ľudí – Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 95 95 100% 89–100 88–101 87–102 84–104
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti – Sloboda a Solidarita – Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia – Za ľudí – Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 78 80 80% 72–85 71–87 71–89 68–90
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti – Sloboda a Solidarita – Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia – Za ľudí 78 79 76% 72–85 70–86 68–88 65–90
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 56 0% 51–63 49–63 48–64 47–66
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 41 0% 37–46 36–46 34–48 33–50
Sloboda a Solidarita – Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia – Za ľudí – Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 25 30 0% 18–39 17–41 16–42 15–45
Sloboda a Solidarita – Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia – Za ľudí 25 30 0% 17–38 16–39 16–41 15–43

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti – Sloboda a Solidarita – SME RODINA – Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia – Za ľudí – Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.3% 99.9%  
84 0.4% 99.6%  
85 0.1% 99.2%  
86 0.8% 99.1%  
87 2% 98%  
88 2% 96%  
89 7% 94%  
90 5% 86%  
91 4% 81%  
92 4% 77%  
93 6% 73%  
94 10% 68% Median
95 13% 57% Last Result
96 14% 44%  
97 8% 30%  
98 5% 22%  
99 5% 18%  
100 4% 13%  
101 4% 8%  
102 2% 4%  
103 1.0% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti – Sloboda a Solidarita – Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia – Za ľudí – Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 0.7% 99.4%  
70 1.1% 98.6%  
71 4% 98%  
72 8% 94%  
73 2% 86%  
74 2% 84%  
75 3% 82%  
76 5% 80% Majority
77 5% 75%  
78 5% 70% Last Result
79 12% 66% Median
80 9% 54%  
81 15% 45%  
82 5% 30%  
83 5% 24%  
84 5% 19%  
85 5% 14%  
86 2% 10%  
87 3% 7%  
88 1.5% 4%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.6% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti – Sloboda a Solidarita – Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia – Za ľudí

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.2% 99.4%  
67 0.2% 99.2%  
68 1.5% 99.0%  
69 0.9% 97%  
70 2% 97%  
71 4% 95%  
72 8% 91%  
73 2% 83%  
74 2% 80%  
75 3% 78%  
76 5% 76% Majority
77 5% 71%  
78 4% 65% Last Result
79 12% 61% Median
80 9% 49%  
81 15% 40%  
82 5% 25%  
83 4% 20%  
84 5% 16%  
85 4% 11%  
86 2% 7%  
87 2% 5%  
88 0.8% 3%  
89 1.5% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 1.0% 99.6%  
48 1.1% 98.6%  
49 3% 97%  
50 3% 95%  
51 3% 91%  
52 5% 88%  
53 7% 82%  
54 7% 75%  
55 15% 69% Last Result
56 11% 54% Median
57 10% 43%  
58 7% 33%  
59 5% 26%  
60 3% 21%  
61 3% 17%  
62 2% 14%  
63 8% 12%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.3% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 1.1% 99.8%  
34 1.4% 98.6%  
35 2% 97%  
36 4% 95%  
37 7% 92%  
38 10% 84% Last Result
39 7% 74%  
40 13% 67%  
41 13% 54% Median
42 10% 41%  
43 8% 31%  
44 7% 23%  
45 4% 16%  
46 7% 12%  
47 1.3% 5%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.7% 1.4%  
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita – Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia – Za ľudí – Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.7%  
16 3% 98.9%  
17 5% 96%  
18 10% 91%  
19 2% 82%  
20 0.4% 80%  
21 0.1% 79%  
22 0.1% 79%  
23 0.2% 79%  
24 0.4% 79%  
25 0.8% 79% Last Result
26 3% 78%  
27 6% 74%  
28 8% 69%  
29 6% 61%  
30 12% 56% Median
31 10% 44%  
32 8% 34%  
33 5% 26%  
34 2% 21%  
35 2% 20%  
36 2% 18%  
37 1.3% 16%  
38 3% 15%  
39 4% 11%  
40 2% 7%  
41 2% 5%  
42 1.0% 3%  
43 0.6% 2%  
44 0.3% 1.2%  
45 0.4% 0.9%  
46 0.1% 0.5%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita – Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia – Za ľudí

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 1.1% 99.6%  
16 4% 98%  
17 5% 94%  
18 11% 90%  
19 2% 79%  
20 0.4% 77%  
21 0.1% 76%  
22 0.1% 76%  
23 0.2% 76%  
24 0.5% 76%  
25 0.6% 75% Last Result
26 2% 75%  
27 6% 72%  
28 7% 66%  
29 6% 60%  
30 12% 53% Median
31 10% 41%  
32 8% 31%  
33 5% 23%  
34 2% 18%  
35 2% 16%  
36 2% 14%  
37 1.2% 12%  
38 3% 11%  
39 3% 8%  
40 2% 5%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.7% 1.2%  
43 0.4% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations