Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 14–21 May 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 25.0% | 22.9% | 21.3–24.7% | 20.9–25.2% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.5% |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 18.3% | 21.6% | 20.0–23.3% | 19.5–23.8% | 19.1–24.2% | 18.4–25.1% |
| SME RODINA | 8.2% | 11.2% | 10.0–12.5% | 9.7–12.9% | 9.4–13.3% | 8.8–14.0% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 8.0% | 9.7% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.3–11.4% | 8.0–11.7% | 7.5–12.3% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.2% | 4.8–8.8% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.1–5.8% | 3.9–6.1% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.3–6.9% |
| Za ľudí | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.5–5.2% | 3.3–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| Dobrá voľba | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
| MOST–HÍD | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.7–2.8% |
| Slovenská národná strana | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
| VLASŤ | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 7.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 53 | 41 | 39–43 | 38–44 | 37–47 | 33–47 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 37 | 37–42 | 37–44 | 34–44 | 31–44 |
| SME RODINA | 17 | 24 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 17–24 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 17 | 15 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 13–21 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 13 | 12 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 11–19 |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0 | 12 | 11–14 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 0–15 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 0 | 0 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–11 |
| Za ľudí | 12 | 9 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–9 |
| Dobrá voľba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MOST–HÍD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenská národná strana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VLASŤ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 39 | 14% | 94% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 80% | |
| 41 | 64% | 80% | Median |
| 42 | 3% | 15% | |
| 43 | 7% | 13% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 46 | 0% | 4% | |
| 47 | 4% | 4% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 37 | 56% | 95% | Median |
| 38 | 7% | 39% | Last Result |
| 39 | 17% | 32% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 41 | 2% | 15% | |
| 42 | 4% | 13% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 44 | 8% | 8% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 18 | 15% | 98.7% | |
| 19 | 6% | 84% | |
| 20 | 16% | 78% | |
| 21 | 4% | 62% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 57% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 57% | |
| 24 | 56% | 57% | Median |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 15 | 65% | 98.8% | Median |
| 16 | 11% | 34% | |
| 17 | 11% | 23% | Last Result |
| 18 | 3% | 12% | |
| 19 | 8% | 9% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 57% | 99.2% | Median |
| 13 | 12% | 43% | Last Result |
| 14 | 10% | 30% | |
| 15 | 9% | 21% | |
| 16 | 2% | 12% | |
| 17 | 8% | 10% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 11 | 11% | 91% | |
| 12 | 67% | 80% | Median |
| 13 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 14 | 12% | 12% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 75% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 25% | |
| 2 | 0% | 25% | |
| 3 | 0% | 25% | |
| 4 | 0% | 25% | |
| 5 | 0% | 25% | |
| 6 | 0% | 25% | |
| 7 | 0% | 25% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 25% | |
| 9 | 8% | 24% | |
| 10 | 10% | 16% | |
| 11 | 7% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Za ľudí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 39% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 61% | |
| 2 | 0% | 61% | |
| 3 | 0% | 61% | |
| 4 | 0% | 61% | |
| 5 | 0% | 61% | |
| 6 | 0% | 61% | |
| 7 | 0% | 61% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 61% | |
| 9 | 58% | 61% | Median |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Dobrá voľba
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobrá voľba page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
MOST–HÍD
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
VLASŤ
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VLASŤ page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana | 72 | 76 | 77% | 72–78 | 72–83 | 70–83 | 65–84 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 55 | 61 | 0% | 57–61 | 56–64 | 54–64 | 51–64 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 55 | 61 | 0% | 57–61 | 56–64 | 54–64 | 51–64 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – MOST–HÍD – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 37 | 0% | 37–42 | 37–44 | 34–44 | 31–44 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 37 | 0% | 37–42 | 37–44 | 34–44 | 31–44 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 37 | 0% | 37–42 | 37–44 | 34–44 | 31–44 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 72 | 14% | 97% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.8% | 82% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 81% | |
| 75 | 3% | 80% | |
| 76 | 62% | 77% | Median, Majority |
| 77 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 78 | 5% | 15% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 83 | 8% | 9% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 56 | 6% | 97% | |
| 57 | 9% | 90% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 81% | |
| 59 | 9% | 80% | |
| 60 | 2% | 71% | |
| 61 | 60% | 69% | Median |
| 62 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 64 | 8% | 9% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 56 | 6% | 97% | |
| 57 | 9% | 90% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 81% | |
| 59 | 9% | 80% | |
| 60 | 2% | 71% | |
| 61 | 60% | 69% | Median |
| 62 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 64 | 8% | 9% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – MOST–HÍD – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 37 | 56% | 95% | Median |
| 38 | 7% | 39% | Last Result |
| 39 | 17% | 32% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 41 | 2% | 15% | |
| 42 | 4% | 13% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 44 | 8% | 8% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 37 | 56% | 95% | Median |
| 38 | 7% | 39% | Last Result |
| 39 | 17% | 32% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 41 | 2% | 15% | |
| 42 | 4% | 13% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 44 | 8% | 8% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 37 | 56% | 95% | Median |
| 38 | 7% | 39% | Last Result |
| 39 | 17% | 32% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 41 | 2% | 15% | |
| 42 | 4% | 13% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 44 | 8% | 8% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: FOCUS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 14–21 May 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1011
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.02%