Opinion Poll by Polis, 23–27 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 25.0% 24.7% 23.0–26.4% 22.6–26.9% 22.2–27.3% 21.4–28.2%
SMER–sociálna demokracia 18.3% 21.1% 19.6–22.8% 19.2–23.3% 18.8–23.7% 18.1–24.5%
Sloboda a Solidarita 6.2% 10.7% 9.6–12.0% 9.3–12.4% 9.0–12.7% 8.5–13.4%
SME RODINA 8.2% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.0% 7.0–10.3% 6.5–10.9%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.5% 6.2–8.8% 5.9–9.1% 5.5–9.6%
Progresívne Slovensko 7.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.7–8.2% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.0%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.6% 4.9% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.4% 3.5–6.9%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 3.9% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.0%
Za ľudí 5.8% 3.7% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.5%
MOST–HÍD 2.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–4.0%
Dobrá voľba 3.1% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–4.0%
Slovenská národná strana 3.2% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.6%
VLASŤ 2.9% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 53 44 40–49 40–49 40–51 38–52
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 38 34–41 34–42 34–44 32–45
Sloboda a Solidarita 13 19 18–21 17–23 16–24 15–24
SME RODINA 17 16 14–19 14–19 13–19 12–19
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 17 14 11–15 11–16 11–16 10–17
Progresívne Slovensko 0 12 9–14 9–14 9–16 9–17
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 0 0–10 0–10 0–11 0–11
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0–9 0–9 0–9 0–10
Za ľudí 12 0 0 0–9 0–10 0–10
MOST–HÍD 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dobrá voľba 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenská národná strana 0 0 0 0 0 0
VLASŤ 0 0 0 0 0 0

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.6%  
39 2% 99.4%  
40 13% 98%  
41 5% 84%  
42 10% 80%  
43 20% 70%  
44 31% 50% Median
45 2% 19%  
46 2% 18%  
47 1.4% 16%  
48 3% 14%  
49 7% 12%  
50 1.1% 5%  
51 2% 4%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 0.1% 99.6%  
33 0.5% 99.5%  
34 18% 99.0%  
35 9% 81%  
36 12% 73%  
37 6% 60%  
38 31% 54% Last Result, Median
39 4% 23%  
40 8% 19%  
41 6% 11%  
42 1.2% 5%  
43 0.3% 4%  
44 2% 4%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 2% 98%  
17 5% 96%  
18 30% 91%  
19 13% 62% Median
20 37% 49%  
21 2% 12%  
22 4% 9%  
23 0.5% 5%  
24 5% 5%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 1.1% 98%  
14 19% 97%  
15 15% 78%  
16 23% 62% Median
17 9% 39% Last Result
18 2% 30%  
19 28% 29%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.7%  
11 13% 98%  
12 8% 85%  
13 26% 77%  
14 4% 51% Median
15 40% 47%  
16 5% 7%  
17 2% 2% Last Result
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 11% 99.9%  
10 25% 89%  
11 9% 64%  
12 12% 55% Median
13 8% 43%  
14 31% 35%  
15 0.6% 4%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.9% 0.9%  
18 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 49%  
2 0% 49%  
3 0% 49%  
4 0% 49%  
5 0% 49%  
6 0% 49%  
7 0% 49%  
8 0.2% 49%  
9 27% 49%  
10 16% 21%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 27%  
2 0% 27%  
3 0% 27%  
4 0% 27%  
5 0% 27%  
6 0% 27%  
7 0% 27%  
8 0% 27%  
9 25% 27%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Za ľudí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 0% 6%  
8 0% 6%  
9 1.2% 6%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Dobrá voľba

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobrá voľba page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

VLASŤ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VLASŤ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana 72 67 0.9% 61–72 61–73 61–74 60–76
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 53 0% 48–58 48–58 48–59 48–60
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 55 53 0% 48–58 48–58 48–59 48–60
SMER–sociálna demokracia – MOST–HÍD – Slovenská národná strana 38 38 0% 34–41 34–42 34–44 32–45
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 38 0% 34–41 34–42 34–44 32–45
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 38 0% 34–41 34–42 34–44 32–45

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 1.0% 99.8%  
61 14% 98.7%  
62 0.7% 85%  
63 13% 84%  
64 9% 71%  
65 7% 63%  
66 0.8% 56%  
67 7% 55%  
68 2% 48% Median
69 8% 46%  
70 2% 39%  
71 0.5% 37%  
72 29% 36% Last Result
73 4% 7%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.1% 1.0%  
76 0.8% 0.9% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 14% 99.7%  
49 0.8% 86%  
50 3% 85%  
51 8% 82%  
52 15% 74%  
53 11% 58%  
54 6% 47% Median
55 2% 42% Last Result
56 2% 39%  
57 26% 37%  
58 7% 11%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.2% 1.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 14% 99.7%  
49 0.8% 86%  
50 3% 85%  
51 8% 82%  
52 15% 74%  
53 11% 58%  
54 6% 47% Median
55 2% 42% Last Result
56 2% 39%  
57 26% 37%  
58 7% 11%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.2% 1.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – MOST–HÍD – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 0.1% 99.6%  
33 0.5% 99.5%  
34 18% 99.0%  
35 9% 81%  
36 12% 73%  
37 6% 60%  
38 31% 54% Last Result, Median
39 4% 23%  
40 8% 19%  
41 6% 11%  
42 1.2% 5%  
43 0.3% 4%  
44 2% 4%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 0.1% 99.6%  
33 0.5% 99.5%  
34 18% 99.0%  
35 9% 81%  
36 12% 73%  
37 6% 60%  
38 31% 54% Last Result, Median
39 4% 23%  
40 8% 19%  
41 6% 11%  
42 1.2% 5%  
43 0.3% 4%  
44 2% 4%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 0.1% 99.6%  
33 0.5% 99.5%  
34 18% 99.0%  
35 9% 81%  
36 12% 73%  
37 6% 60%  
38 31% 54% Last Result, Median
39 4% 23%  
40 8% 19%  
41 6% 11%  
42 1.2% 5%  
43 0.3% 4%  
44 2% 4%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations