Opinion Poll by Polis, 5–10 June 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 25.0% | 24.4% | 22.7–26.1% | 22.2–26.6% | 21.8–27.1% | 21.1–27.9% |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 18.3% | 18.8% | 17.3–20.4% | 16.9–20.9% | 16.6–21.3% | 15.9–22.1% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.5% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 6.2% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.5% | 7.3–10.8% | 6.8–11.4% |
| SME RODINA | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.5% | 7.3–10.8% | 6.8–11.4% |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.0% |
| Za ľudí | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.8–6.0% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.3–6.7% |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.4% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.1–6.4% |
| Dobrá voľba | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.7–5.0% | 2.4–5.4% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.5–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Slovenská národná strana | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.1–4.9% |
| MOST–HÍD | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.8% | 1.6–4.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 53 | 45 | 42–49 | 42–50 | 41–50 | 39–52 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 34 | 33–37 | 31–39 | 30–39 | 29–41 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 17 | 17 | 14–20 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 13–21 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 13 | 16 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 13–21 |
| SME RODINA | 17 | 16 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 13–20 | 12–21 |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0 | 11 | 9–14 | 9–15 | 9–16 | 0–16 |
| Za ľudí | 12 | 0 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–13 |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 0 | 0 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–12 |
| Dobrá voľba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–10 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenská národná strana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MOST–HÍD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 41 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 42 | 29% | 97% | |
| 43 | 11% | 68% | |
| 44 | 5% | 57% | |
| 45 | 4% | 52% | Median |
| 46 | 9% | 47% | |
| 47 | 15% | 38% | |
| 48 | 10% | 23% | |
| 49 | 3% | 13% | |
| 50 | 8% | 10% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 52 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 54 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 4% | 96% | |
| 32 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 33 | 13% | 90% | |
| 34 | 31% | 77% | Median |
| 35 | 20% | 46% | |
| 36 | 14% | 26% | |
| 37 | 5% | 13% | |
| 38 | 2% | 8% | Last Result |
| 39 | 4% | 6% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 10% | 98.9% | |
| 15 | 32% | 89% | |
| 16 | 7% | 57% | |
| 17 | 13% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 18 | 11% | 37% | |
| 19 | 12% | 26% | |
| 20 | 11% | 15% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 14 | 4% | 97% | |
| 15 | 5% | 93% | |
| 16 | 39% | 88% | Median |
| 17 | 14% | 49% | |
| 18 | 14% | 35% | |
| 19 | 13% | 21% | |
| 20 | 5% | 8% | |
| 21 | 3% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 14 | 9% | 97% | |
| 15 | 31% | 88% | |
| 16 | 24% | 57% | Median |
| 17 | 10% | 33% | Last Result |
| 18 | 7% | 24% | |
| 19 | 11% | 17% | |
| 20 | 4% | 6% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 9 | 25% | 99.2% | |
| 10 | 6% | 74% | |
| 11 | 24% | 69% | Median |
| 12 | 14% | 44% | |
| 13 | 20% | 30% | |
| 14 | 5% | 11% | |
| 15 | 3% | 6% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Za ľudí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 50% | |
| 2 | 0% | 50% | |
| 3 | 0% | 50% | |
| 4 | 0% | 50% | |
| 5 | 0% | 50% | |
| 6 | 0% | 50% | |
| 7 | 0% | 50% | |
| 8 | 0% | 50% | |
| 9 | 3% | 50% | |
| 10 | 35% | 47% | |
| 11 | 11% | 12% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 2% | Last Result |
| 13 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 58% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 42% | |
| 2 | 0% | 42% | |
| 3 | 0% | 42% | |
| 4 | 0% | 42% | |
| 5 | 0% | 42% | |
| 6 | 0% | 42% | |
| 7 | 0% | 42% | |
| 8 | 0% | 42% | |
| 9 | 29% | 42% | |
| 10 | 11% | 13% | |
| 11 | 2% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Dobrá voľba
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobrá voľba page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
MOST–HÍD
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 72 | 67 | 2% | 63–73 | 63–74 | 62–75 | 58–77 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 55 | 50 | 0% | 48–55 | 48–56 | 46–57 | 44–59 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 55 | 50 | 0% | 48–55 | 48–57 | 46–57 | 44–59 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD | 38 | 34 | 0% | 33–37 | 31–39 | 30–39 | 29–41 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 34 | 0% | 33–37 | 31–39 | 30–39 | 29–41 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 34 | 0% | 33–37 | 31–39 | 30–39 | 29–41 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 63 | 10% | 97% | |
| 64 | 26% | 87% | |
| 65 | 3% | 61% | |
| 66 | 6% | 58% | |
| 67 | 2% | 52% | Median |
| 68 | 10% | 50% | |
| 69 | 5% | 40% | |
| 70 | 9% | 35% | |
| 71 | 4% | 26% | |
| 72 | 4% | 22% | Last Result |
| 73 | 11% | 18% | |
| 74 | 2% | 7% | |
| 75 | 3% | 5% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 2% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 48 | 7% | 96% | |
| 49 | 37% | 89% | |
| 50 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 51 | 10% | 42% | |
| 52 | 6% | 32% | |
| 53 | 6% | 27% | |
| 54 | 9% | 20% | |
| 55 | 5% | 12% | Last Result |
| 56 | 2% | 7% | |
| 57 | 3% | 5% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 48 | 7% | 96% | |
| 49 | 37% | 89% | |
| 50 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 51 | 10% | 42% | |
| 52 | 6% | 32% | |
| 53 | 6% | 27% | |
| 54 | 9% | 21% | |
| 55 | 5% | 12% | Last Result |
| 56 | 2% | 7% | |
| 57 | 3% | 5% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 4% | 96% | |
| 32 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 33 | 13% | 90% | |
| 34 | 31% | 77% | Median |
| 35 | 20% | 46% | |
| 36 | 14% | 26% | |
| 37 | 4% | 13% | |
| 38 | 2% | 8% | Last Result |
| 39 | 4% | 7% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 4% | 96% | |
| 32 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 33 | 13% | 90% | |
| 34 | 31% | 77% | Median |
| 35 | 20% | 46% | |
| 36 | 14% | 26% | |
| 37 | 5% | 13% | |
| 38 | 2% | 8% | Last Result |
| 39 | 4% | 6% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 4% | 96% | |
| 32 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 33 | 13% | 90% | |
| 34 | 31% | 77% | Median |
| 35 | 20% | 46% | |
| 36 | 14% | 26% | |
| 37 | 4% | 13% | |
| 38 | 2% | 8% | Last Result |
| 39 | 4% | 6% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Polis
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 5–10 June 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1047
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.27%