Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 17–24 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 25.0% 21.2% 19.6–22.9% 19.2–23.4% 18.8–23.9% 18.1–24.7%
SMER–sociálna demokracia 18.3% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.2% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
SME RODINA 8.2% 12.8% 11.5–14.2% 11.2–14.6% 10.9–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 9.6% 8.5–10.9% 8.2–11.3% 7.9–11.6% 7.4–12.2%
Sloboda a Solidarita 6.2% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.9% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
Progresívne Slovensko 7.0% 6.2% 5.4–7.3% 5.1–7.7% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.5%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.6% 4.6% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.5%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 3.9% 3.7% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.8% 2.7–5.0% 2.4–5.5%
Za ľudí 5.8% 3.6% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.3%
Dobrá voľba 3.1% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%
VLASŤ 2.9% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Slovenská národná strana 3.2% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.5%
MOST–HÍD 2.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.4% 0.7–2.8%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 7.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 53 39 38–43 37–43 35–43 33–44
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 39 31–41 30–41 30–41 30–44
SME RODINA 17 25 21–26 21–28 20–28 18–29
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 17 20 16–20 16–22 14–23 13–24
Sloboda a Solidarita 13 16 16–19 14–19 14–20 14–22
Progresívne Slovensko 0 11 10–14 0–14 0–15 0–16
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 0 0–10 0–12 0–12 0–12
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0–9
Za ľudí 12 0 0 0 0 0–10
Dobrá voľba 0 0 0 0 0 0
VLASŤ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenská národná strana 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOST–HÍD 0 0 0 0 0 0
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.9% 99.9%  
34 0.9% 99.0%  
35 0.8% 98%  
36 0.6% 97%  
37 3% 97%  
38 43% 94%  
39 5% 51% Median
40 1.2% 46%  
41 27% 45%  
42 1.1% 18%  
43 14% 17%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.3%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 6% 99.8%  
31 10% 94%  
32 4% 84%  
33 7% 80%  
34 2% 73%  
35 6% 71%  
36 1.4% 65%  
37 4% 64%  
38 6% 60% Last Result
39 3% 53% Median
40 13% 50%  
41 34% 36%  
42 0.4% 2%  
43 0% 2%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0.9% 99.9%  
19 0.9% 99.0%  
20 2% 98%  
21 10% 96%  
22 19% 86%  
23 3% 67%  
24 8% 64%  
25 37% 56% Median
26 13% 20%  
27 0.3% 7%  
28 4% 6%  
29 1.5% 2%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 1.2% 98%  
15 2% 97%  
16 11% 96%  
17 8% 85% Last Result
18 15% 77%  
19 12% 62%  
20 44% 50% Median
21 0.7% 6%  
22 2% 5%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.8% 0.9%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
14 6% 99.7%  
15 2% 94%  
16 46% 92% Median
17 26% 45%  
18 9% 20%  
19 8% 11%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.8% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.7%  
23 0.3% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0% 93%  
7 0% 93%  
8 0% 93%  
9 0.3% 93%  
10 41% 93%  
11 3% 52% Median
12 24% 48%  
13 6% 24%  
14 16% 19%  
15 0.8% 3%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 25%  
2 0% 25%  
3 0% 25%  
4 0% 25%  
5 0% 25%  
6 0% 25%  
7 0% 25%  
8 0% 25%  
9 6% 25%  
10 11% 19%  
11 2% 7%  
12 6% 6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.9%  
2 0% 0.9%  
3 0% 0.9%  
4 0% 0.9%  
5 0% 0.9%  
6 0% 0.9%  
7 0% 0.9%  
8 0% 0.9%  
9 0.6% 0.9%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Za ľudí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Median
1 0% 1.2%  
2 0% 1.2%  
3 0% 1.2%  
4 0% 1.2%  
5 0% 1.2%  
6 0% 1.2%  
7 0% 1.2%  
8 0% 1.2%  
9 0.1% 1.2%  
10 1.0% 1.0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Dobrá voľba

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobrá voľba page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

VLASŤ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VLASŤ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana 72 81 72% 72–86 68–86 68–86 68–87
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 62 0% 54–66 52–66 52–66 52–69
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 55 62 0% 54–66 52–66 52–66 52–69
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 38 39 0% 31–41 30–41 30–41 30–44
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 39 0% 31–41 30–41 30–41 30–44
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 39 0% 31–41 30–41 30–41 30–44

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 9% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 91%  
70 0.3% 91%  
71 0.1% 91%  
72 7% 91% Last Result
73 1.1% 84%  
74 3% 83%  
75 8% 80%  
76 1.1% 72% Majority
77 3% 71%  
78 0.9% 68%  
79 0.5% 67%  
80 16% 67%  
81 0.9% 50%  
82 3% 50%  
83 3% 46%  
84 7% 44% Median
85 0.8% 36%  
86 34% 35%  
87 0.8% 1.1%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 9% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 91%  
54 1.0% 91%  
55 9% 90% Last Result
56 8% 81%  
57 0.5% 73%  
58 1.3% 73%  
59 1.2% 72%  
60 7% 70%  
61 2% 63%  
62 13% 61%  
63 4% 48%  
64 6% 44% Median
65 0.9% 38%  
66 35% 37%  
67 0.3% 2%  
68 1.1% 2%  
69 1.0% 1.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 9% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 91%  
54 1.0% 91%  
55 9% 90% Last Result
56 8% 81%  
57 0.5% 73%  
58 1.3% 73%  
59 1.2% 72%  
60 7% 70%  
61 2% 63%  
62 13% 61%  
63 4% 48%  
64 6% 44% Median
65 0.9% 38%  
66 35% 37%  
67 0.3% 2%  
68 1.1% 2%  
69 1.0% 1.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 6% 99.8%  
31 10% 94%  
32 4% 84%  
33 7% 80%  
34 2% 73%  
35 6% 71%  
36 1.4% 65%  
37 4% 64%  
38 6% 60% Last Result
39 3% 53% Median
40 13% 50%  
41 34% 36%  
42 0.4% 2%  
43 0% 2%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 6% 99.8%  
31 10% 94%  
32 4% 84%  
33 7% 80%  
34 2% 73%  
35 6% 71%  
36 1.4% 65%  
37 4% 64%  
38 6% 60% Last Result
39 3% 53% Median
40 13% 50%  
41 34% 36%  
42 0.4% 2%  
43 0% 2%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 6% 99.8%  
31 10% 94%  
32 4% 84%  
33 7% 80%  
34 2% 73%  
35 6% 71%  
36 1.4% 65%  
37 4% 64%  
38 6% 60% Last Result
39 3% 53% Median
40 13% 50%  
41 34% 36%  
42 0.4% 2%  
43 0% 2%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations