Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 7–11 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 37.1% 34.9–39.3% 34.3–39.9% 33.8–40.5% 32.8–41.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 20.0% 18.2–21.9% 17.7–22.4% 17.3–22.9% 16.5–23.8%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 17.0% 15.4–18.8% 14.9–19.3% 14.5–19.7% 13.8–20.6%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 15.0% 13.5–16.7% 13.1–17.2% 12.7–17.6% 12.0–18.5%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.9–10.5% 7.5–10.9% 7.3–11.2% 6.7–11.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 69 65–74 64–75 63–76 61–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 37 34–41 33–42 32–43 31–44
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 32 28–35 28–36 27–37 26–38
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 28 25–31 24–32 23–33 22–34
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 17 14–19 14–20 13–21 12–22

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.8%  
62 0.8% 99.4%  
63 2% 98.6%  
64 3% 97%  
65 5% 94%  
66 7% 89%  
67 9% 82%  
68 12% 73%  
69 12% 61% Median
70 13% 49%  
71 11% 36% Last Result
72 9% 25%  
73 7% 17%  
74 4% 10%  
75 3% 6%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.7% 1.4%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.8% 99.6%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 4% 97%  
34 8% 93%  
35 11% 85%  
36 13% 74%  
37 15% 61% Median
38 14% 46%  
39 12% 32%  
40 9% 20% Last Result
41 6% 11%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.7% 1.1%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 1.1% 99.5%  
27 3% 98%  
28 6% 96%  
29 9% 90%  
30 14% 81%  
31 15% 67% Last Result
32 15% 52% Median
33 14% 36%  
34 9% 22%  
35 6% 13%  
36 4% 6%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.8% 1.2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.8%  
23 2% 99.2%  
24 4% 97%  
25 8% 93%  
26 13% 85% Last Result
27 16% 72%  
28 17% 56% Median
29 15% 40%  
30 11% 25%  
31 7% 14%  
32 4% 7%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.8% 1.2%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.2%  
14 8% 96%  
15 14% 88% Last Result
16 20% 74%  
17 20% 54% Median
18 15% 33%  
19 10% 18%  
20 5% 8%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.7% 1.0%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 114 100% 110–118 109–119 108–120 106–122
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 107 100% 102–111 101–112 100–113 98–115
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 101 99.8% 97–105 96–106 95–108 93–109
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 97 96% 93–102 92–103 91–104 89–106
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 86 5% 82–90 81–92 80–93 78–95
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 82 0.2% 78–86 77–87 75–88 74–90
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 69 0% 65–74 64–75 63–76 61–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 69 0% 65–73 64–74 63–75 61–77
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 65 0% 61–69 60–70 59–71 57–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 37 0% 34–41 33–42 32–43 31–44

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.3% 99.8%  
106 0.5% 99.6%  
107 1.1% 99.1%  
108 2% 98%  
109 4% 96%  
110 5% 92%  
111 7% 87%  
112 9% 79% Last Result
113 13% 70%  
114 13% 57% Median
115 12% 44%  
116 10% 33%  
117 9% 23%  
118 6% 14%  
119 4% 8%  
120 2% 4%  
121 1.3% 2%  
122 0.6% 1.0%  
123 0.2% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.4% 99.7%  
99 0.8% 99.4%  
100 2% 98.6%  
101 3% 97%  
102 4% 94%  
103 7% 90%  
104 9% 83%  
105 11% 75%  
106 12% 64% Median
107 12% 52%  
108 11% 40%  
109 9% 29%  
110 8% 20%  
111 5% 12% Last Result
112 3% 7%  
113 2% 3%  
114 1.0% 2%  
115 0.4% 0.7%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.8% Majority
93 0.6% 99.5%  
94 1.2% 98.9%  
95 2% 98%  
96 4% 96%  
97 6% 92%  
98 7% 86%  
99 10% 78%  
100 12% 69%  
101 12% 57% Median
102 12% 44% Last Result
103 9% 33%  
104 8% 23%  
105 6% 15%  
106 4% 9%  
107 2% 5%  
108 1.3% 3%  
109 0.7% 1.2%  
110 0.3% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.3% 99.9%  
89 0.5% 99.6%  
90 0.9% 99.1%  
91 2% 98%  
92 4% 96% Majority
93 4% 93%  
94 7% 88%  
95 10% 81%  
96 12% 71%  
97 11% 59% Last Result, Median
98 11% 48%  
99 12% 37%  
100 9% 25%  
101 6% 16%  
102 4% 10%  
103 3% 6%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.7% 1.3%  
106 0.4% 0.7%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 0.6% 99.6%  
79 1.1% 99.0%  
80 2% 98%  
81 4% 96%  
82 5% 92%  
83 8% 87%  
84 10% 79%  
85 11% 69%  
86 12% 58% Last Result, Median
87 12% 46%  
88 10% 34%  
89 8% 24%  
90 6% 16%  
91 4% 9%  
92 2% 5% Majority
93 1.5% 3%  
94 0.7% 1.3%  
95 0.3% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.7% 99.5%  
75 1.4% 98.8%  
76 2% 97%  
77 4% 95%  
78 6% 91%  
79 8% 85%  
80 9% 77%  
81 12% 67% Last Result
82 12% 55% Median
83 12% 43%  
84 10% 31%  
85 7% 21%  
86 6% 14%  
87 4% 8%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.2% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.1%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2% Majority
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.8%  
62 0.8% 99.4%  
63 2% 98.6%  
64 3% 97%  
65 5% 94%  
66 7% 89%  
67 9% 82%  
68 12% 73%  
69 12% 61% Median
70 13% 49%  
71 11% 36% Last Result
72 9% 25%  
73 7% 17%  
74 4% 10%  
75 3% 6%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.7% 1.4%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.6%  
62 1.3% 99.0%  
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 96%  
65 6% 92%  
66 9% 86%  
67 10% 77%  
68 12% 67%  
69 13% 56% Median
70 13% 43%  
71 9% 30% Last Result
72 7% 21%  
73 5% 13%  
74 4% 8%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.5% 0.9%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 0.9% 99.3%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 97%  
61 5% 93%  
62 8% 88%  
63 10% 80%  
64 11% 70%  
65 13% 59% Median
66 12% 46% Last Result
67 11% 34%  
68 8% 23%  
69 6% 15%  
70 4% 9%  
71 2% 5%  
72 1.3% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.1%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.8% 99.6%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 4% 97%  
34 8% 93%  
35 11% 85%  
36 13% 74%  
37 15% 61% Median
38 14% 46%  
39 12% 32%  
40 9% 20% Last Result
41 6% 11%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.7% 1.1%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations