Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 15–17 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 38.0% | 35.9–40.3% | 35.3–40.9% | 34.7–41.4% | 33.7–42.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 20.0% | 18.2–21.9% | 17.7–22.4% | 17.3–22.9% | 16.5–23.8% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 16.0% | 14.4–17.7% | 14.0–18.2% | 13.6–18.7% | 12.9–19.5% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 15.0% | 13.4–16.7% | 13.0–17.2% | 12.7–17.6% | 12.0–18.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.5–10.8% | 7.2–11.2% | 6.7–11.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 71 | 67–76 | 66–77 | 65–78 | 63–80 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 37 | 34–41 | 33–42 | 32–43 | 31–44 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 | 24–36 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 28 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–33 | 22–34 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 17 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 12–22 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 3% | 97% | |
| 67 | 5% | 93% | |
| 68 | 7% | 88% | |
| 69 | 10% | 81% | |
| 70 | 11% | 72% | |
| 71 | 12% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 72 | 11% | 48% | |
| 73 | 12% | 36% | |
| 74 | 8% | 25% | |
| 75 | 7% | 17% | |
| 76 | 5% | 10% | |
| 77 | 2% | 5% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 4% | 97% | |
| 34 | 7% | 93% | |
| 35 | 11% | 86% | |
| 36 | 14% | 75% | |
| 37 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 38 | 14% | 46% | |
| 39 | 12% | 32% | |
| 40 | 9% | 20% | Last Result |
| 41 | 6% | 12% | |
| 42 | 3% | 6% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 26 | 5% | 97% | |
| 27 | 9% | 92% | |
| 28 | 13% | 82% | |
| 29 | 16% | 69% | |
| 30 | 15% | 53% | Median |
| 31 | 14% | 38% | Last Result |
| 32 | 11% | 24% | |
| 33 | 7% | 14% | |
| 34 | 4% | 7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 24 | 4% | 97% | |
| 25 | 9% | 93% | |
| 26 | 13% | 84% | Last Result |
| 27 | 16% | 72% | |
| 28 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 29 | 14% | 39% | |
| 30 | 11% | 25% | |
| 31 | 7% | 14% | |
| 32 | 4% | 7% | |
| 33 | 2% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 14 | 9% | 96% | |
| 15 | 15% | 87% | Last Result |
| 16 | 20% | 72% | |
| 17 | 20% | 51% | Median |
| 18 | 15% | 32% | |
| 19 | 9% | 16% | |
| 20 | 5% | 7% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 116 | 100% | 112–120 | 111–121 | 110–122 | 108–124 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 109 | 100% | 104–113 | 103–114 | 102–115 | 100–117 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 101 | 99.8% | 97–105 | 96–107 | 95–108 | 93–110 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 99 | 99.1% | 95–103 | 94–105 | 93–106 | 91–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 88 | 14% | 84–92 | 83–93 | 82–94 | 79–97 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 82 | 0.2% | 78–86 | 76–87 | 75–88 | 73–90 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 71 | 0% | 67–76 | 66–77 | 65–78 | 63–80 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 67 | 0% | 63–71 | 62–72 | 61–73 | 59–75 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 60–70 | 59–71 | 57–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 37 | 0% | 34–41 | 33–42 | 32–43 | 31–44 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 109 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 110 | 2% | 98% | |
| 111 | 4% | 95% | |
| 112 | 6% | 92% | Last Result |
| 113 | 8% | 86% | |
| 114 | 10% | 77% | |
| 115 | 12% | 67% | |
| 116 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 117 | 12% | 43% | |
| 118 | 10% | 31% | |
| 119 | 8% | 21% | |
| 120 | 6% | 13% | |
| 121 | 3% | 7% | |
| 122 | 2% | 4% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 102 | 2% | 98% | |
| 103 | 3% | 97% | |
| 104 | 4% | 94% | |
| 105 | 6% | 90% | |
| 106 | 9% | 83% | |
| 107 | 11% | 75% | |
| 108 | 12% | 64% | Median |
| 109 | 12% | 52% | |
| 110 | 11% | 40% | |
| 111 | 10% | 29% | Last Result |
| 112 | 7% | 19% | |
| 113 | 5% | 12% | |
| 114 | 3% | 7% | |
| 115 | 2% | 4% | |
| 116 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 95 | 2% | 98% | |
| 96 | 4% | 96% | |
| 97 | 5% | 92% | |
| 98 | 8% | 87% | |
| 99 | 10% | 79% | |
| 100 | 11% | 69% | |
| 101 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 102 | 12% | 46% | Last Result |
| 103 | 11% | 34% | |
| 104 | 8% | 23% | |
| 105 | 6% | 15% | |
| 106 | 4% | 9% | |
| 107 | 3% | 5% | |
| 108 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 92 | 1.1% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 3% | 96% | |
| 95 | 5% | 92% | |
| 96 | 7% | 87% | |
| 97 | 9% | 80% | Last Result |
| 98 | 12% | 70% | |
| 99 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 100 | 12% | 47% | |
| 101 | 10% | 36% | |
| 102 | 9% | 25% | |
| 103 | 6% | 16% | |
| 104 | 4% | 10% | |
| 105 | 3% | 6% | |
| 106 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 81 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 82 | 2% | 98% | |
| 83 | 4% | 95% | |
| 84 | 6% | 91% | |
| 85 | 8% | 85% | |
| 86 | 10% | 77% | Last Result |
| 87 | 12% | 67% | |
| 88 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 89 | 11% | 44% | |
| 90 | 10% | 33% | |
| 91 | 8% | 22% | |
| 92 | 6% | 14% | Majority |
| 93 | 4% | 9% | |
| 94 | 2% | 5% | |
| 95 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 75 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 76 | 3% | 97% | |
| 77 | 4% | 95% | |
| 78 | 6% | 91% | |
| 79 | 8% | 85% | |
| 80 | 11% | 76% | |
| 81 | 12% | 66% | Last Result |
| 82 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 83 | 11% | 42% | |
| 84 | 10% | 31% | |
| 85 | 8% | 21% | |
| 86 | 5% | 13% | |
| 87 | 3% | 8% | |
| 88 | 2% | 4% | |
| 89 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 3% | 97% | |
| 67 | 5% | 93% | |
| 68 | 7% | 88% | |
| 69 | 10% | 81% | |
| 70 | 11% | 72% | |
| 71 | 12% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 72 | 11% | 48% | |
| 73 | 12% | 36% | |
| 74 | 8% | 25% | |
| 75 | 7% | 17% | |
| 76 | 5% | 10% | |
| 77 | 2% | 5% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 3% | 96% | |
| 63 | 6% | 93% | |
| 64 | 8% | 87% | |
| 65 | 10% | 79% | |
| 66 | 12% | 69% | |
| 67 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 68 | 12% | 45% | |
| 69 | 10% | 33% | |
| 70 | 8% | 23% | |
| 71 | 6% | 14% | Last Result |
| 72 | 4% | 8% | |
| 73 | 2% | 5% | |
| 74 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 3% | 97% | |
| 61 | 5% | 93% | |
| 62 | 7% | 88% | |
| 63 | 10% | 81% | |
| 64 | 12% | 70% | |
| 65 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 66 | 12% | 46% | Last Result |
| 67 | 11% | 34% | |
| 68 | 9% | 23% | |
| 69 | 6% | 15% | |
| 70 | 4% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 4% | 97% | |
| 34 | 7% | 93% | |
| 35 | 11% | 86% | |
| 36 | 14% | 75% | |
| 37 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 38 | 14% | 46% | |
| 39 | 12% | 32% | |
| 40 | 9% | 20% | Last Result |
| 41 | 6% | 12% | |
| 42 | 3% | 6% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 15–17 October 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 802
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.59%