Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 14–19 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 38.0% 35.9–40.3% 35.3–40.9% 34.7–41.4% 33.7–42.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 20.0% 18.2–21.9% 17.7–22.4% 17.3–22.9% 16.5–23.8%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 16.0% 14.4–17.7% 14.0–18.2% 13.6–18.7% 12.9–19.5%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 15.0% 13.4–16.7% 13.0–17.2% 12.7–17.6% 12.0–18.5%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 71 67–76 66–77 65–78 63–80
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 37 34–41 33–42 32–43 31–44
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 30 27–33 26–34 25–35 24–36
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 28 25–31 24–32 23–33 22–34
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 17 14–19 14–20 13–21 12–22

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.7%  
64 0.9% 99.3%  
65 2% 98%  
66 3% 97%  
67 5% 93%  
68 7% 88%  
69 10% 81%  
70 11% 72%  
71 12% 60% Last Result, Median
72 11% 48%  
73 12% 36%  
74 8% 25%  
75 7% 17%  
76 5% 10%  
77 2% 5%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.8% 1.4%  
80 0.4% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.8% 99.6%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 4% 97%  
34 7% 93%  
35 11% 86%  
36 14% 75%  
37 15% 61% Median
38 14% 46%  
39 12% 32%  
40 9% 20% Last Result
41 6% 12%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.7% 1.2%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.8% 99.7%  
25 2% 98.8%  
26 5% 97%  
27 9% 92%  
28 13% 82%  
29 16% 69%  
30 15% 53% Median
31 14% 38% Last Result
32 11% 24%  
33 7% 14%  
34 4% 7%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 1.2%  
37 0.3% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.8%  
23 2% 99.1%  
24 4% 97%  
25 9% 93%  
26 13% 84% Last Result
27 16% 72%  
28 17% 56% Median
29 14% 39%  
30 11% 25%  
31 7% 14%  
32 4% 7%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.8% 1.2%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.9% 99.8%  
13 3% 99.0%  
14 9% 96%  
15 15% 87% Last Result
16 20% 72%  
17 20% 51% Median
18 15% 32%  
19 9% 16%  
20 5% 7%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.6% 0.9%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 116 100% 112–120 111–121 110–122 108–124
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 109 100% 104–113 103–114 102–115 100–117
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 101 99.8% 97–105 96–107 95–108 93–110
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 99 99.1% 95–103 94–105 93–106 91–108
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 88 14% 84–92 83–93 82–94 79–97
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 82 0.2% 78–86 76–87 75–88 73–90
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 71 0% 67–76 66–77 65–78 63–80
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 67 0% 63–71 62–72 61–73 59–75
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 65 0% 61–69 60–70 59–71 57–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 37 0% 34–41 33–42 32–43 31–44

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.3% 99.8%  
108 0.6% 99.5%  
109 1.2% 98.9%  
110 2% 98%  
111 4% 95%  
112 6% 92% Last Result
113 8% 86%  
114 10% 77%  
115 12% 67%  
116 12% 55% Median
117 12% 43%  
118 10% 31%  
119 8% 21%  
120 6% 13%  
121 3% 7%  
122 2% 4%  
123 1.0% 2%  
124 0.5% 0.8%  
125 0.2% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.4% 99.7%  
101 0.9% 99.3%  
102 2% 98%  
103 3% 97%  
104 4% 94%  
105 6% 90%  
106 9% 83%  
107 11% 75%  
108 12% 64% Median
109 12% 52%  
110 11% 40%  
111 10% 29% Last Result
112 7% 19%  
113 5% 12%  
114 3% 7%  
115 2% 4%  
116 0.9% 2%  
117 0.4% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.8% Majority
93 0.6% 99.5%  
94 1.2% 99.0%  
95 2% 98%  
96 4% 96%  
97 5% 92%  
98 8% 87%  
99 10% 79%  
100 11% 69%  
101 12% 58% Median
102 12% 46% Last Result
103 11% 34%  
104 8% 23%  
105 6% 15%  
106 4% 9%  
107 3% 5%  
108 1.4% 3%  
109 0.7% 1.2%  
110 0.3% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.5% 99.6%  
92 1.1% 99.1% Majority
93 2% 98%  
94 3% 96%  
95 5% 92%  
96 7% 87%  
97 9% 80% Last Result
98 12% 70%  
99 12% 59% Median
100 12% 47%  
101 10% 36%  
102 9% 25%  
103 6% 16%  
104 4% 10%  
105 3% 6%  
106 1.5% 3%  
107 0.7% 1.3%  
108 0.4% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.7% 99.5%  
81 1.3% 98.8%  
82 2% 98%  
83 4% 95%  
84 6% 91%  
85 8% 85%  
86 10% 77% Last Result
87 12% 67%  
88 12% 56% Median
89 11% 44%  
90 10% 33%  
91 8% 22%  
92 6% 14% Majority
93 4% 9%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.3% 2%  
96 0.6% 1.1%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.7% 99.5%  
75 1.4% 98.8%  
76 3% 97%  
77 4% 95%  
78 6% 91%  
79 8% 85%  
80 11% 76%  
81 12% 66% Last Result
82 12% 54% Median
83 11% 42%  
84 10% 31%  
85 8% 21%  
86 5% 13%  
87 3% 8%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.2% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2% Majority
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.7%  
64 0.9% 99.3%  
65 2% 98%  
66 3% 97%  
67 5% 93%  
68 7% 88%  
69 10% 81%  
70 11% 72%  
71 12% 60% Last Result, Median
72 11% 48%  
73 12% 36%  
74 8% 25%  
75 7% 17%  
76 5% 10%  
77 2% 5%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.8% 1.4%  
80 0.4% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.7%  
60 1.0% 99.2%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 96%  
63 6% 93%  
64 8% 87%  
65 10% 79%  
66 12% 69%  
67 12% 57% Median
68 12% 45%  
69 10% 33%  
70 8% 23%  
71 6% 14% Last Result
72 4% 8%  
73 2% 5%  
74 1.2% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.1%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 0.9% 99.3%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 97%  
61 5% 93%  
62 7% 88%  
63 10% 81%  
64 12% 70%  
65 12% 58% Median
66 12% 46% Last Result
67 11% 34%  
68 9% 23%  
69 6% 15%  
70 4% 9%  
71 2% 5%  
72 1.3% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.1%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.8% 99.6%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 4% 97%  
34 7% 93%  
35 11% 86%  
36 14% 75%  
37 15% 61% Median
38 14% 46%  
39 12% 32%  
40 9% 20% Last Result
41 6% 12%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.7% 1.2%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations