Opinion Poll by Karmasin Research & Identity, 8–13 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 38.0% 36.9–39.2% 36.5–39.5% 36.3–39.8% 35.7–40.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 20.0% 19.1–21.0% 18.8–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.2–21.9%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 15.0% 14.2–15.9% 14.0–16.1% 13.8–16.3% 13.4–16.8%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 15.0% 14.2–15.9% 14.0–16.1% 13.8–16.3% 13.4–16.8%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 8.4–9.7% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.7–10.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 72 70–74 69–75 69–75 68–76
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 38 36–40 35–40 35–41 34–41
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 28 27–30 26–30 26–31 25–31
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 28 27–30 26–30 26–31 25–31
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 17 15–18 15–18 15–19 14–19

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.3% 100%  
68 1.3% 99.7%  
69 4% 98%  
70 11% 94%  
71 19% 83% Last Result
72 23% 64% Median
73 20% 41%  
74 13% 20%  
75 6% 8%  
76 2% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.8% 99.9%  
35 4% 99.1%  
36 14% 95%  
37 25% 81%  
38 27% 57% Median
39 19% 29%  
40 8% 10% Last Result
41 2% 3%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.2% 99.9%  
26 7% 98.7%  
27 20% 91%  
28 32% 71% Median
29 25% 40%  
30 11% 15%  
31 3% 4% Last Result
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.2% 99.9%  
26 8% 98.7% Last Result
27 19% 91%  
28 33% 72% Median
29 25% 39%  
30 11% 15%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.0% 100%  
15 9% 99.0% Last Result
16 31% 90%  
17 36% 59% Median
18 18% 22%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 117 100% 115–119 114–120 114–120 113–121
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 110 100% 108–112 107–113 106–113 105–114
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 100 100% 98–103 97–103 97–104 96–105
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 100 100% 98–103 97–103 97–104 96–105
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 89 6% 87–91 86–92 85–92 84–93
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 83 0% 80–85 80–86 79–86 78–87
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 72 0% 70–74 69–75 69–75 68–76
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 66 0% 64–68 63–69 63–69 62–70
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 66 0% 64–68 63–69 63–69 62–70
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 38 0% 36–40 35–40 35–41 34–41

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0.1% 100%  
112 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
113 1.4% 99.6%  
114 5% 98%  
115 11% 94%  
116 19% 82%  
117 24% 63% Median
118 20% 39%  
119 12% 19%  
120 5% 7%  
121 1.5% 2%  
122 0.3% 0.3%  
123 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0.1% 100%  
105 0.5% 99.9%  
106 2% 99.3%  
107 6% 97%  
108 13% 91%  
109 20% 78%  
110 23% 59% Median
111 18% 35% Last Result
112 11% 17%  
113 4% 6%  
114 1.3% 2%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.3% 99.9%  
96 1.1% 99.7%  
97 4% 98.5% Last Result
98 10% 95%  
99 17% 85%  
100 23% 68% Median
101 21% 45%  
102 14% 24%  
103 7% 10%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.6% 0.8%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.3% 99.9%  
96 1.2% 99.7%  
97 4% 98.5%  
98 9% 95%  
99 18% 85%  
100 22% 68% Median
101 21% 46%  
102 14% 25% Last Result
103 7% 10%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.6% 0.8%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.5% 99.9%  
85 2% 99.3%  
86 6% 97% Last Result
87 13% 91%  
88 20% 78%  
89 23% 58% Median
90 19% 36%  
91 11% 17%  
92 4% 6% Majority
93 1.4% 2%  
94 0.3% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.7% 99.8%  
79 3% 99.2%  
80 7% 97%  
81 14% 89% Last Result
82 21% 75%  
83 22% 54% Median
84 18% 32%  
85 9% 15%  
86 4% 5%  
87 1.1% 1.4%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.3% 100%  
68 1.3% 99.7%  
69 4% 98%  
70 11% 94%  
71 19% 83% Last Result
72 23% 64% Median
73 20% 41%  
74 13% 20%  
75 6% 8%  
76 2% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 2% 99.6%  
63 5% 98%  
64 12% 93%  
65 20% 80%  
66 23% 60% Last Result, Median
67 19% 37%  
68 11% 18%  
69 5% 6%  
70 1.4% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 2% 99.6%  
63 5% 98%  
64 12% 93%  
65 20% 81%  
66 24% 60% Median
67 19% 36%  
68 11% 17%  
69 5% 6%  
70 1.4% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
72 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.8% 99.9%  
35 4% 99.1%  
36 14% 95%  
37 25% 81%  
38 27% 57% Median
39 19% 29%  
40 8% 10% Last Result
41 2% 3%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations