Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 11–15 November 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 37.9% | 35.8–40.2% | 35.2–40.8% | 34.7–41.3% | 33.7–42.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 19.0% | 17.3–20.8% | 16.8–21.4% | 16.4–21.8% | 15.7–22.7% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 17.0% | 15.4–18.8% | 15.0–19.3% | 14.6–19.8% | 13.9–20.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 16.0% | 14.5–17.8% | 14.1–18.3% | 13.7–18.7% | 13.0–19.6% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.9–10.5% | 7.5–10.9% | 7.3–11.2% | 6.8–11.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 70 | 66–74 | 65–76 | 64–77 | 62–79 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 35 | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 | 29–42 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 31 | 28–35 | 28–36 | 27–36 | 25–38 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–34 | 24–36 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 17 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 13–20 | 12–22 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 65 | 3% | 97% | |
| 66 | 5% | 94% | |
| 67 | 7% | 89% | |
| 68 | 9% | 82% | |
| 69 | 12% | 73% | |
| 70 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 71 | 12% | 48% | Last Result |
| 72 | 11% | 36% | |
| 73 | 9% | 25% | |
| 74 | 7% | 16% | |
| 75 | 4% | 9% | |
| 76 | 3% | 5% | |
| 77 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 31 | 5% | 97% | |
| 32 | 8% | 92% | |
| 33 | 12% | 84% | |
| 34 | 14% | 72% | |
| 35 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 36 | 14% | 42% | |
| 37 | 12% | 28% | |
| 38 | 7% | 17% | |
| 39 | 5% | 9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 41 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98% | |
| 28 | 6% | 95% | |
| 29 | 12% | 89% | |
| 30 | 14% | 77% | |
| 31 | 14% | 63% | Last Result, Median |
| 32 | 17% | 49% | |
| 33 | 14% | 33% | |
| 34 | 7% | 18% | |
| 35 | 6% | 11% | |
| 36 | 3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 25 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 26 | 6% | 96% | Last Result |
| 27 | 10% | 90% | |
| 28 | 14% | 81% | |
| 29 | 15% | 67% | |
| 30 | 17% | 51% | Median |
| 31 | 13% | 34% | |
| 32 | 9% | 21% | |
| 33 | 6% | 11% | |
| 34 | 3% | 5% | |
| 35 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 14 | 9% | 96% | |
| 15 | 16% | 87% | Last Result |
| 16 | 21% | 71% | |
| 17 | 20% | 51% | Median |
| 18 | 15% | 31% | |
| 19 | 9% | 16% | |
| 20 | 4% | 6% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 117 | 100% | 113–121 | 111–122 | 110–123 | 108–125 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 105 | 100% | 101–110 | 100–111 | 99–112 | 97–114 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 102 | 99.9% | 98–106 | 96–107 | 95–108 | 93–110 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 100 | 99.5% | 96–104 | 95–105 | 94–106 | 92–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 87 | 8% | 83–91 | 82–92 | 81–93 | 79–95 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 81 | 0.1% | 77–85 | 76–87 | 75–88 | 73–90 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 70 | 0% | 66–74 | 65–76 | 64–77 | 62–79 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 66 | 0% | 62–70 | 61–72 | 60–73 | 58–75 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 60–70 | 59–71 | 57–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 35 | 0% | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 | 29–42 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 110 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 111 | 3% | 97% | |
| 112 | 4% | 95% | Last Result |
| 113 | 6% | 90% | |
| 114 | 9% | 84% | |
| 115 | 11% | 75% | |
| 116 | 13% | 63% | |
| 117 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 118 | 11% | 38% | |
| 119 | 10% | 27% | |
| 120 | 7% | 17% | |
| 121 | 4% | 10% | |
| 122 | 3% | 6% | |
| 123 | 2% | 3% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 99 | 2% | 98% | |
| 100 | 3% | 97% | |
| 101 | 5% | 94% | |
| 102 | 7% | 89% | |
| 103 | 9% | 82% | |
| 104 | 11% | 73% | |
| 105 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 106 | 12% | 49% | |
| 107 | 12% | 37% | |
| 108 | 9% | 26% | |
| 109 | 6% | 17% | |
| 110 | 5% | 10% | |
| 111 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 112 | 2% | 3% | |
| 113 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 95 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 96 | 3% | 97% | |
| 97 | 4% | 95% | |
| 98 | 6% | 91% | |
| 99 | 9% | 85% | |
| 100 | 10% | 76% | |
| 101 | 12% | 66% | Median |
| 102 | 12% | 54% | Last Result |
| 103 | 12% | 42% | |
| 104 | 10% | 30% | |
| 105 | 7% | 20% | |
| 106 | 6% | 13% | |
| 107 | 3% | 7% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 99.5% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 94 | 2% | 98% | |
| 95 | 4% | 95% | |
| 96 | 5% | 91% | |
| 97 | 7% | 86% | Last Result |
| 98 | 10% | 79% | |
| 99 | 14% | 68% | |
| 100 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 101 | 10% | 43% | |
| 102 | 11% | 33% | |
| 103 | 9% | 22% | |
| 104 | 5% | 13% | |
| 105 | 3% | 8% | |
| 106 | 2% | 5% | |
| 107 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 80 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 81 | 2% | 98% | |
| 82 | 4% | 95% | |
| 83 | 6% | 92% | |
| 84 | 8% | 86% | |
| 85 | 10% | 78% | |
| 86 | 12% | 68% | Last Result |
| 87 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 88 | 11% | 43% | |
| 89 | 10% | 32% | |
| 90 | 8% | 21% | |
| 91 | 5% | 14% | |
| 92 | 4% | 8% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 4% | |
| 94 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 3% | 96% | |
| 77 | 6% | 93% | |
| 78 | 7% | 87% | |
| 79 | 10% | 80% | |
| 80 | 12% | 70% | |
| 81 | 12% | 58% | Last Result |
| 82 | 12% | 46% | Median |
| 83 | 10% | 34% | |
| 84 | 9% | 24% | |
| 85 | 6% | 15% | |
| 86 | 4% | 9% | |
| 87 | 3% | 5% | |
| 88 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 65 | 3% | 97% | |
| 66 | 5% | 94% | |
| 67 | 7% | 89% | |
| 68 | 9% | 82% | |
| 69 | 12% | 73% | |
| 70 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 71 | 12% | 48% | Last Result |
| 72 | 11% | 36% | |
| 73 | 9% | 25% | |
| 74 | 7% | 16% | |
| 75 | 4% | 9% | |
| 76 | 3% | 5% | |
| 77 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 61 | 3% | 97% | |
| 62 | 4% | 94% | |
| 63 | 7% | 90% | |
| 64 | 10% | 83% | |
| 65 | 11% | 73% | |
| 66 | 12% | 62% | Median |
| 67 | 13% | 49% | |
| 68 | 11% | 37% | |
| 69 | 9% | 25% | |
| 70 | 6% | 16% | |
| 71 | 4% | 10% | Last Result |
| 72 | 3% | 5% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 4% | 95% | |
| 61 | 7% | 91% | |
| 62 | 8% | 84% | |
| 63 | 11% | 75% | |
| 64 | 13% | 64% | |
| 65 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 66 | 11% | 38% | Last Result |
| 67 | 10% | 27% | |
| 68 | 7% | 18% | |
| 69 | 5% | 11% | |
| 70 | 3% | 6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 31 | 5% | 97% | |
| 32 | 8% | 92% | |
| 33 | 12% | 84% | |
| 34 | 14% | 72% | |
| 35 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 36 | 14% | 42% | |
| 37 | 12% | 28% | |
| 38 | 7% | 17% | |
| 39 | 5% | 9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 41 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): profil
- Fieldwork period: 11–15 November 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 817
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.50%