Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 29 November–4 December 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 39.0% | 36.8–41.3% | 36.2–41.9% | 35.7–42.5% | 34.6–43.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 18.1% | 16.4–19.9% | 15.9–20.4% | 15.5–20.9% | 14.8–21.8% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 16.0% | 14.5–17.8% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.6–18.8% | 12.9–19.6% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 15.0% | 13.5–16.8% | 13.1–17.3% | 12.7–17.7% | 12.0–18.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.4–11.9% | 8.1–12.3% | 7.5–13.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 73 | 69–77 | 68–78 | 67–79 | 65–82 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 34 | 30–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 | 27–41 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 | 24–36 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 28 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–33 | 22–34 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | |
| 69 | 6% | 92% | |
| 70 | 8% | 86% | |
| 71 | 10% | 78% | Last Result |
| 72 | 12% | 68% | |
| 73 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 74 | 12% | 44% | |
| 75 | 10% | 33% | |
| 76 | 8% | 22% | |
| 77 | 6% | 14% | |
| 78 | 4% | 8% | |
| 79 | 2% | 5% | |
| 80 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 3% | 98% | |
| 30 | 6% | 95% | |
| 31 | 9% | 89% | |
| 32 | 13% | 80% | |
| 33 | 15% | 67% | |
| 34 | 15% | 52% | Median |
| 35 | 13% | 36% | |
| 36 | 10% | 24% | |
| 37 | 6% | 14% | |
| 38 | 4% | 7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 26 | 5% | 97% | Last Result |
| 27 | 9% | 92% | |
| 28 | 12% | 83% | |
| 29 | 16% | 71% | |
| 30 | 16% | 55% | Median |
| 31 | 14% | 39% | |
| 32 | 11% | 25% | |
| 33 | 7% | 14% | |
| 34 | 4% | 7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 24 | 4% | 97% | |
| 25 | 8% | 93% | |
| 26 | 13% | 85% | |
| 27 | 15% | 72% | |
| 28 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 29 | 15% | 40% | |
| 30 | 11% | 25% | |
| 31 | 7% | 14% | Last Result |
| 32 | 4% | 7% | |
| 33 | 2% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 16 | 10% | 94% | |
| 17 | 16% | 84% | |
| 18 | 20% | 68% | Median |
| 19 | 19% | 48% | |
| 20 | 14% | 30% | |
| 21 | 9% | 16% | |
| 22 | 4% | 7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 121 | 100% | 117–125 | 116–126 | 115–127 | 113–129 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 107 | 100% | 102–111 | 101–112 | 100–113 | 98–115 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 103 | 100% | 99–107 | 97–108 | 96–109 | 94–111 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 101 | 99.8% | 97–105 | 96–106 | 94–107 | 92–109 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 92 | 50% | 87–96 | 86–97 | 85–98 | 83–100 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 82 | 0.2% | 78–86 | 77–87 | 76–89 | 73–91 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 73 | 0% | 69–77 | 68–78 | 67–79 | 65–82 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 64 | 0% | 59–68 | 58–69 | 57–70 | 56–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 62 | 0% | 58–66 | 57–67 | 56–68 | 54–70 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 34 | 0% | 30–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 | 27–41 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 114 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 115 | 2% | 98% | |
| 116 | 3% | 97% | |
| 117 | 5% | 94% | |
| 118 | 7% | 89% | |
| 119 | 10% | 82% | |
| 120 | 11% | 72% | |
| 121 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 122 | 13% | 49% | |
| 123 | 11% | 36% | |
| 124 | 9% | 25% | |
| 125 | 7% | 16% | |
| 126 | 5% | 9% | |
| 127 | 3% | 5% | |
| 128 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 100 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 101 | 3% | 97% | |
| 102 | 4% | 94% | |
| 103 | 6% | 90% | |
| 104 | 9% | 84% | |
| 105 | 10% | 75% | |
| 106 | 12% | 64% | |
| 107 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 108 | 11% | 40% | |
| 109 | 9% | 29% | |
| 110 | 8% | 20% | |
| 111 | 5% | 12% | Last Result |
| 112 | 3% | 7% | |
| 113 | 2% | 4% | |
| 114 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 96 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 97 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 98 | 4% | 95% | |
| 99 | 6% | 91% | |
| 100 | 8% | 85% | |
| 101 | 10% | 77% | |
| 102 | 11% | 66% | |
| 103 | 13% | 55% | Median |
| 104 | 11% | 43% | |
| 105 | 10% | 31% | |
| 106 | 8% | 22% | |
| 107 | 5% | 14% | |
| 108 | 4% | 8% | |
| 109 | 2% | 4% | |
| 110 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 95 | 2% | 97% | |
| 96 | 4% | 95% | |
| 97 | 6% | 91% | |
| 98 | 8% | 85% | |
| 99 | 10% | 78% | |
| 100 | 11% | 68% | |
| 101 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 102 | 12% | 44% | Last Result |
| 103 | 10% | 33% | |
| 104 | 8% | 23% | |
| 105 | 6% | 14% | |
| 106 | 4% | 9% | |
| 107 | 2% | 5% | |
| 108 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 85 | 2% | 98% | |
| 86 | 3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 87 | 5% | 93% | |
| 88 | 7% | 89% | |
| 89 | 9% | 82% | |
| 90 | 11% | 73% | |
| 91 | 12% | 62% | Median |
| 92 | 12% | 50% | Majority |
| 93 | 11% | 38% | |
| 94 | 9% | 27% | |
| 95 | 7% | 18% | |
| 96 | 5% | 11% | |
| 97 | 3% | 7% | |
| 98 | 2% | 3% | |
| 99 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 75 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 76 | 2% | 98% | |
| 77 | 4% | 95% | |
| 78 | 6% | 91% | |
| 79 | 8% | 86% | |
| 80 | 10% | 77% | |
| 81 | 12% | 67% | Last Result |
| 82 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 83 | 11% | 44% | |
| 84 | 10% | 32% | |
| 85 | 8% | 22% | |
| 86 | 6% | 15% | |
| 87 | 4% | 9% | |
| 88 | 2% | 5% | |
| 89 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | |
| 69 | 6% | 92% | |
| 70 | 8% | 86% | |
| 71 | 10% | 78% | Last Result |
| 72 | 12% | 68% | |
| 73 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 74 | 12% | 44% | |
| 75 | 10% | 33% | |
| 76 | 8% | 22% | |
| 77 | 6% | 14% | |
| 78 | 4% | 8% | |
| 79 | 2% | 5% | |
| 80 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 57 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 58 | 3% | 97% | |
| 59 | 5% | 94% | |
| 60 | 7% | 90% | |
| 61 | 9% | 83% | |
| 62 | 11% | 74% | |
| 63 | 13% | 63% | |
| 64 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 65 | 11% | 38% | |
| 66 | 9% | 26% | Last Result |
| 67 | 7% | 17% | |
| 68 | 5% | 11% | |
| 69 | 3% | 6% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 5% | 95% | |
| 58 | 7% | 90% | |
| 59 | 9% | 84% | |
| 60 | 11% | 75% | |
| 61 | 13% | 64% | |
| 62 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 63 | 11% | 39% | |
| 64 | 10% | 28% | |
| 65 | 7% | 18% | |
| 66 | 5% | 11% | |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 3% | 98% | |
| 30 | 6% | 95% | |
| 31 | 9% | 89% | |
| 32 | 13% | 80% | |
| 33 | 15% | 67% | |
| 34 | 15% | 52% | Median |
| 35 | 13% | 36% | |
| 36 | 10% | 24% | |
| 37 | 6% | 14% | |
| 38 | 4% | 7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 29 November–4 December 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 792
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.94%