Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 9–13 December 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 39.0% | 36.9–41.3% | 36.2–41.9% | 35.7–42.4% | 34.7–43.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 18.0% | 16.3–19.8% | 15.9–20.3% | 15.5–20.8% | 14.7–21.7% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 17.0% | 15.4–18.8% | 14.9–19.3% | 14.5–19.7% | 13.8–20.6% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 15.0% | 13.5–16.7% | 13.1–17.2% | 12.7–17.6% | 12.0–18.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.8–11.5% | 8.4–11.9% | 8.1–12.3% | 7.6–13.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 72 | 68–77 | 67–78 | 66–79 | 64–81 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 33 | 30–36 | 29–37 | 28–38 | 27–40 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 31 | 28–35 | 27–35 | 27–36 | 25–38 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 28 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–32 | 22–34 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–22 | 14–24 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 5% | 94% | |
| 69 | 7% | 89% | |
| 70 | 9% | 82% | |
| 71 | 11% | 72% | Last Result |
| 72 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 73 | 13% | 49% | |
| 74 | 11% | 36% | |
| 75 | 9% | 26% | |
| 76 | 7% | 17% | |
| 77 | 4% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 6% | |
| 79 | 2% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 29 | 4% | 97% | |
| 30 | 8% | 93% | |
| 31 | 11% | 86% | |
| 32 | 14% | 74% | |
| 33 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 34 | 15% | 44% | |
| 35 | 12% | 30% | |
| 36 | 8% | 18% | |
| 37 | 5% | 10% | |
| 38 | 3% | 5% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 27 | 4% | 98% | |
| 28 | 7% | 94% | |
| 29 | 10% | 88% | |
| 30 | 15% | 77% | |
| 31 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 32 | 15% | 46% | |
| 33 | 12% | 32% | |
| 34 | 9% | 19% | |
| 35 | 5% | 10% | |
| 36 | 3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 24 | 5% | 97% | |
| 25 | 9% | 91% | |
| 26 | 14% | 82% | |
| 27 | 17% | 68% | |
| 28 | 17% | 52% | Median |
| 29 | 14% | 35% | |
| 30 | 10% | 21% | |
| 31 | 6% | 11% | Last Result |
| 32 | 3% | 5% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 16 | 10% | 93% | |
| 17 | 16% | 83% | |
| 18 | 20% | 67% | Median |
| 19 | 18% | 47% | |
| 20 | 13% | 28% | |
| 21 | 9% | 15% | |
| 22 | 4% | 6% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 122 | 100% | 118–126 | 117–127 | 116–128 | 114–130 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 106 | 100% | 101–110 | 100–111 | 99–112 | 97–114 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 104 | 100% | 100–108 | 98–109 | 97–110 | 95–112 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 100 | 99.5% | 96–104 | 95–105 | 94–106 | 92–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 91 | 42% | 87–95 | 85–96 | 84–97 | 82–99 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 83 | 0.5% | 79–87 | 78–88 | 77–89 | 75–91 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 72 | 0% | 68–77 | 67–78 | 66–79 | 64–81 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 59–70 | 58–71 | 57–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 61 | 0% | 57–65 | 56–66 | 55–67 | 53–69 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 33 | 0% | 30–36 | 29–37 | 28–38 | 27–40 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 115 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 116 | 2% | 98% | |
| 117 | 3% | 97% | |
| 118 | 5% | 93% | |
| 119 | 7% | 88% | |
| 120 | 10% | 81% | |
| 121 | 12% | 71% | Median |
| 122 | 13% | 59% | |
| 123 | 12% | 46% | |
| 124 | 11% | 34% | |
| 125 | 9% | 23% | |
| 126 | 6% | 14% | |
| 127 | 4% | 8% | |
| 128 | 2% | 4% | |
| 129 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 98 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 99 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 100 | 3% | 97% | |
| 101 | 5% | 94% | |
| 102 | 6% | 89% | |
| 103 | 9% | 83% | |
| 104 | 11% | 74% | |
| 105 | 12% | 63% | Median |
| 106 | 12% | 51% | |
| 107 | 11% | 39% | |
| 108 | 10% | 28% | |
| 109 | 7% | 19% | |
| 110 | 5% | 11% | |
| 111 | 3% | 7% | Last Result |
| 112 | 2% | 3% | |
| 113 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 97 | 1.4% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 98 | 3% | 97% | |
| 99 | 4% | 95% | |
| 100 | 6% | 90% | |
| 101 | 9% | 84% | |
| 102 | 11% | 76% | |
| 103 | 11% | 65% | Median |
| 104 | 12% | 53% | |
| 105 | 12% | 41% | |
| 106 | 10% | 30% | |
| 107 | 7% | 20% | |
| 108 | 5% | 13% | |
| 109 | 3% | 7% | |
| 110 | 2% | 4% | |
| 111 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 99.5% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 94 | 2% | 98% | |
| 95 | 4% | 95% | |
| 96 | 6% | 92% | |
| 97 | 8% | 86% | |
| 98 | 9% | 78% | |
| 99 | 11% | 68% | |
| 100 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 101 | 12% | 45% | |
| 102 | 10% | 33% | Last Result |
| 103 | 8% | 23% | |
| 104 | 6% | 14% | |
| 105 | 4% | 9% | |
| 106 | 2% | 5% | |
| 107 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 84 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 85 | 2% | 97% | |
| 86 | 4% | 95% | Last Result |
| 87 | 6% | 90% | |
| 88 | 8% | 84% | |
| 89 | 10% | 76% | |
| 90 | 12% | 66% | Median |
| 91 | 12% | 54% | |
| 92 | 11% | 42% | Majority |
| 93 | 10% | 31% | |
| 94 | 8% | 21% | |
| 95 | 5% | 13% | |
| 96 | 4% | 8% | |
| 97 | 2% | 4% | |
| 98 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 76 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98% | |
| 78 | 4% | 95% | |
| 79 | 6% | 91% | |
| 80 | 8% | 86% | |
| 81 | 10% | 77% | Last Result |
| 82 | 12% | 67% | Median |
| 83 | 12% | 55% | |
| 84 | 11% | 43% | |
| 85 | 9% | 32% | |
| 86 | 8% | 22% | |
| 87 | 6% | 14% | |
| 88 | 4% | 8% | |
| 89 | 2% | 5% | |
| 90 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 5% | 94% | |
| 69 | 7% | 89% | |
| 70 | 9% | 82% | |
| 71 | 11% | 72% | Last Result |
| 72 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 73 | 13% | 49% | |
| 74 | 11% | 36% | |
| 75 | 9% | 26% | |
| 76 | 7% | 17% | |
| 77 | 4% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 6% | |
| 79 | 2% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 59 | 3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 4% | 95% | |
| 61 | 7% | 90% | |
| 62 | 10% | 83% | |
| 63 | 11% | 73% | |
| 64 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 65 | 13% | 50% | |
| 66 | 11% | 37% | Last Result |
| 67 | 8% | 26% | |
| 68 | 7% | 18% | |
| 69 | 5% | 10% | |
| 70 | 3% | 6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 4% | 96% | |
| 57 | 6% | 92% | |
| 58 | 9% | 86% | |
| 59 | 11% | 77% | |
| 60 | 12% | 66% | |
| 61 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 62 | 12% | 41% | |
| 63 | 10% | 29% | |
| 64 | 7% | 19% | |
| 65 | 5% | 12% | |
| 66 | 3% | 7% | |
| 67 | 2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 29 | 4% | 97% | |
| 30 | 8% | 93% | |
| 31 | 11% | 86% | |
| 32 | 14% | 74% | |
| 33 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 34 | 15% | 44% | |
| 35 | 12% | 30% | |
| 36 | 8% | 18% | |
| 37 | 5% | 10% | |
| 38 | 3% | 5% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): profil
- Fieldwork period: 9–13 December 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 807
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.84%