Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 16–19 December 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 39.0% | 36.8–41.2% | 36.2–41.8% | 35.7–42.4% | 34.6–43.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 19.0% | 17.3–20.9% | 16.8–21.4% | 16.4–21.8% | 15.6–22.8% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 16.0% | 14.4–17.8% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.6–18.7% | 12.9–19.6% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 14.0% | 12.6–15.7% | 12.1–16.2% | 11.8–16.6% | 11.1–17.4% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.8–11.5% | 8.5–11.9% | 8.2–12.3% | 7.6–13.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 73 | 69–77 | 68–78 | 67–79 | 65–81 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 35 | 32–39 | 31–40 | 30–41 | 29–42 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 | 24–36 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 26 | 23–29 | 22–30 | 22–31 | 20–32 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 19 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | |
| 69 | 5% | 91% | |
| 70 | 8% | 86% | |
| 71 | 10% | 78% | Last Result |
| 72 | 12% | 68% | |
| 73 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 74 | 12% | 43% | |
| 75 | 10% | 31% | |
| 76 | 8% | 22% | |
| 77 | 6% | 14% | |
| 78 | 3% | 8% | |
| 79 | 2% | 5% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 31 | 4% | 97% | |
| 32 | 6% | 94% | |
| 33 | 10% | 87% | |
| 34 | 14% | 77% | |
| 35 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 36 | 15% | 48% | |
| 37 | 12% | 33% | |
| 38 | 9% | 21% | |
| 39 | 6% | 12% | |
| 40 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 26 | 5% | 97% | Last Result |
| 27 | 9% | 92% | |
| 28 | 13% | 83% | |
| 29 | 16% | 70% | |
| 30 | 16% | 54% | Median |
| 31 | 14% | 38% | |
| 32 | 11% | 25% | |
| 33 | 7% | 14% | |
| 34 | 4% | 7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 22 | 3% | 98% | |
| 23 | 8% | 95% | |
| 24 | 13% | 87% | |
| 25 | 14% | 74% | |
| 26 | 18% | 61% | Median |
| 27 | 17% | 43% | |
| 28 | 11% | 26% | |
| 29 | 7% | 15% | |
| 30 | 5% | 8% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 16 | 9% | 95% | |
| 17 | 14% | 86% | |
| 18 | 20% | 72% | |
| 19 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 20 | 16% | 33% | |
| 21 | 9% | 17% | |
| 22 | 5% | 8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 121 | 100% | 117–125 | 116–127 | 115–128 | 113–129 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 108 | 100% | 104–113 | 103–114 | 102–115 | 100–117 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 103 | 100% | 99–107 | 97–108 | 96–109 | 94–111 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 99 | 99.0% | 95–103 | 94–104 | 93–106 | 91–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 92 | 52% | 87–96 | 86–97 | 85–98 | 83–100 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 84 | 1.0% | 80–88 | 79–89 | 77–90 | 75–92 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 73 | 0% | 69–77 | 68–78 | 67–79 | 65–81 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 60–70 | 59–72 | 57–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 61 | 0% | 58–66 | 56–67 | 55–68 | 54–70 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 35 | 0% | 32–39 | 31–40 | 30–41 | 29–42 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 115 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 116 | 3% | 97% | |
| 117 | 4% | 94% | |
| 118 | 7% | 90% | |
| 119 | 9% | 83% | |
| 120 | 11% | 74% | |
| 121 | 13% | 63% | |
| 122 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 123 | 12% | 37% | |
| 124 | 9% | 26% | |
| 125 | 7% | 16% | |
| 126 | 4% | 10% | |
| 127 | 3% | 5% | |
| 128 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 102 | 2% | 98% | |
| 103 | 3% | 97% | |
| 104 | 5% | 93% | |
| 105 | 7% | 89% | |
| 106 | 9% | 82% | |
| 107 | 11% | 72% | |
| 108 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 109 | 12% | 49% | |
| 110 | 11% | 37% | |
| 111 | 9% | 26% | Last Result |
| 112 | 7% | 17% | |
| 113 | 5% | 10% | |
| 114 | 3% | 6% | |
| 115 | 2% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 96 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 97 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 98 | 4% | 95% | |
| 99 | 6% | 91% | |
| 100 | 9% | 85% | |
| 101 | 10% | 76% | |
| 102 | 12% | 66% | |
| 103 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 104 | 11% | 42% | |
| 105 | 10% | 30% | |
| 106 | 8% | 21% | |
| 107 | 5% | 13% | |
| 108 | 3% | 8% | |
| 109 | 2% | 4% | |
| 110 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 99.0% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 4% | 96% | |
| 95 | 5% | 92% | |
| 96 | 8% | 86% | |
| 97 | 9% | 78% | |
| 98 | 11% | 69% | |
| 99 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 100 | 12% | 45% | |
| 101 | 10% | 33% | |
| 102 | 8% | 23% | Last Result |
| 103 | 6% | 15% | |
| 104 | 4% | 9% | |
| 105 | 2% | 5% | |
| 106 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 85 | 2% | 98% | |
| 86 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 87 | 4% | 94% | |
| 88 | 7% | 90% | |
| 89 | 9% | 83% | |
| 90 | 10% | 74% | |
| 91 | 12% | 64% | |
| 92 | 12% | 52% | Median, Majority |
| 93 | 12% | 40% | |
| 94 | 9% | 28% | |
| 95 | 7% | 19% | |
| 96 | 5% | 12% | |
| 97 | 3% | 7% | |
| 98 | 2% | 4% | |
| 99 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 77 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 78 | 2% | 97% | |
| 79 | 4% | 95% | |
| 80 | 6% | 91% | |
| 81 | 8% | 85% | Last Result |
| 82 | 10% | 77% | |
| 83 | 12% | 67% | |
| 84 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 85 | 11% | 42% | |
| 86 | 9% | 31% | |
| 87 | 8% | 22% | |
| 88 | 5% | 14% | |
| 89 | 4% | 8% | |
| 90 | 2% | 4% | |
| 91 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 1.0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | |
| 69 | 5% | 91% | |
| 70 | 8% | 86% | |
| 71 | 10% | 78% | Last Result |
| 72 | 12% | 68% | |
| 73 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 74 | 12% | 43% | |
| 75 | 10% | 31% | |
| 76 | 8% | 22% | |
| 77 | 6% | 14% | |
| 78 | 3% | 8% | |
| 79 | 2% | 5% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 3% | 97% | |
| 61 | 5% | 94% | |
| 62 | 7% | 88% | |
| 63 | 10% | 81% | |
| 64 | 12% | 71% | |
| 65 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 66 | 12% | 47% | Last Result |
| 67 | 11% | 35% | |
| 68 | 8% | 24% | |
| 69 | 6% | 15% | |
| 70 | 4% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 3% | 97% | |
| 57 | 4% | 95% | |
| 58 | 7% | 90% | |
| 59 | 9% | 84% | |
| 60 | 12% | 74% | |
| 61 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 62 | 13% | 50% | |
| 63 | 11% | 37% | |
| 64 | 9% | 26% | |
| 65 | 7% | 17% | |
| 66 | 4% | 10% | |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 31 | 4% | 97% | |
| 32 | 6% | 94% | |
| 33 | 10% | 87% | |
| 34 | 14% | 77% | |
| 35 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 36 | 15% | 48% | |
| 37 | 12% | 33% | |
| 38 | 9% | 21% | |
| 39 | 6% | 12% | |
| 40 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 16–19 December 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 806
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.88%