Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 6–10 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 38.0% | 35.8–40.2% | 35.2–40.8% | 34.7–41.4% | 33.7–42.4% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 17.0% | 15.4–18.8% | 14.9–19.3% | 14.6–19.8% | 13.8–20.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 16.0% | 14.4–17.8% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.6–18.7% | 12.9–19.6% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 16.0% | 14.4–17.8% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.6–18.7% | 12.9–19.6% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.8–11.5% | 8.5–11.9% | 8.2–12.3% | 7.6–13.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 72 | 67–76 | 66–77 | 65–78 | 63–80 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 32 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 27–37 | 26–39 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 | 24–37 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 | 24–37 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 19 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 3% | 97% | |
| 67 | 4% | 94% | |
| 68 | 6% | 90% | |
| 69 | 9% | 83% | |
| 70 | 11% | 74% | |
| 71 | 11% | 63% | Last Result |
| 72 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 73 | 11% | 40% | |
| 74 | 10% | 29% | |
| 75 | 7% | 19% | |
| 76 | 5% | 12% | |
| 77 | 3% | 7% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 27 | 3% | 98% | |
| 28 | 4% | 96% | |
| 29 | 5% | 92% | |
| 30 | 11% | 87% | |
| 31 | 19% | 75% | |
| 32 | 20% | 57% | Median |
| 33 | 16% | 37% | |
| 34 | 8% | 21% | |
| 35 | 4% | 13% | |
| 36 | 4% | 9% | |
| 37 | 3% | 5% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 4% | 97% | |
| 27 | 8% | 93% | |
| 28 | 11% | 85% | |
| 29 | 16% | 73% | |
| 30 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 31 | 15% | 42% | |
| 32 | 11% | 27% | |
| 33 | 8% | 16% | |
| 34 | 5% | 8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 4% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 4% | 97% | |
| 27 | 8% | 93% | |
| 28 | 12% | 85% | |
| 29 | 15% | 73% | |
| 30 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 31 | 15% | 42% | Last Result |
| 32 | 11% | 27% | |
| 33 | 8% | 16% | |
| 34 | 4% | 8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 4% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 16 | 8% | 95% | |
| 17 | 14% | 87% | |
| 18 | 19% | 73% | |
| 19 | 19% | 54% | Median |
| 20 | 16% | 35% | |
| 21 | 10% | 20% | |
| 22 | 6% | 9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 123 | 100% | 118–126 | 117–128 | 115–129 | 113–131 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 104 | 100% | 99–108 | 98–109 | 97–110 | 94–112 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 102 | 99.8% | 97–106 | 96–107 | 95–108 | 92–110 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 102 | 99.8% | 97–106 | 96–107 | 95–108 | 92–110 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 90 | 38% | 86–95 | 85–96 | 84–97 | 81–99 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 81 | 0.1% | 76–85 | 75–86 | 74–87 | 72–90 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 72 | 0% | 67–76 | 66–77 | 65–78 | 63–80 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 66 | 62 | 0% | 58–66 | 57–67 | 56–68 | 54–70 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 71 | 60 | 0% | 56–64 | 55–65 | 54–66 | 52–69 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 30 | 0% | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 | 24–37 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 114 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 115 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 116 | 2% | 97% | |
| 117 | 3% | 95% | |
| 118 | 4% | 92% | |
| 119 | 9% | 88% | |
| 120 | 4% | 79% | |
| 121 | 15% | 75% | |
| 122 | 10% | 60% | |
| 123 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 124 | 14% | 38% | |
| 125 | 5% | 24% | |
| 126 | 10% | 19% | |
| 127 | 2% | 8% | |
| 128 | 4% | 6% | |
| 129 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 130 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 96 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 97 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 98 | 3% | 96% | |
| 99 | 4% | 93% | |
| 100 | 6% | 88% | |
| 101 | 8% | 82% | |
| 102 | 11% | 74% | |
| 103 | 12% | 64% | |
| 104 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 105 | 11% | 40% | |
| 106 | 10% | 29% | |
| 107 | 7% | 19% | |
| 108 | 5% | 12% | |
| 109 | 3% | 7% | |
| 110 | 2% | 4% | |
| 111 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 95 | 2% | 98% | |
| 96 | 3% | 96% | |
| 97 | 5% | 93% | |
| 98 | 6% | 89% | |
| 99 | 8% | 82% | |
| 100 | 10% | 74% | |
| 101 | 11% | 64% | |
| 102 | 13% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 103 | 10% | 41% | |
| 104 | 9% | 30% | |
| 105 | 8% | 21% | |
| 106 | 6% | 14% | |
| 107 | 4% | 8% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 95 | 2% | 98% | |
| 96 | 3% | 96% | |
| 97 | 4% | 93% | |
| 98 | 7% | 89% | |
| 99 | 8% | 82% | |
| 100 | 11% | 75% | |
| 101 | 12% | 64% | |
| 102 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 103 | 10% | 41% | |
| 104 | 10% | 31% | |
| 105 | 8% | 21% | |
| 106 | 5% | 13% | |
| 107 | 4% | 8% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 3% | 95% | |
| 86 | 5% | 92% | Last Result |
| 87 | 7% | 87% | |
| 88 | 9% | 80% | |
| 89 | 10% | 71% | |
| 90 | 11% | 61% | |
| 91 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 92 | 11% | 38% | Majority |
| 93 | 9% | 28% | |
| 94 | 7% | 19% | |
| 95 | 5% | 12% | |
| 96 | 3% | 7% | |
| 97 | 2% | 4% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98% | |
| 75 | 3% | 97% | |
| 76 | 4% | 94% | |
| 77 | 7% | 90% | |
| 78 | 8% | 83% | |
| 79 | 10% | 74% | |
| 80 | 11% | 65% | |
| 81 | 13% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 82 | 11% | 41% | |
| 83 | 9% | 30% | |
| 84 | 7% | 21% | |
| 85 | 5% | 13% | |
| 86 | 4% | 8% | |
| 87 | 2% | 4% | |
| 88 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 3% | 97% | |
| 67 | 4% | 94% | |
| 68 | 6% | 90% | |
| 69 | 9% | 83% | |
| 70 | 11% | 74% | |
| 71 | 11% | 63% | Last Result |
| 72 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 73 | 11% | 40% | |
| 74 | 10% | 29% | |
| 75 | 7% | 19% | |
| 76 | 5% | 12% | |
| 77 | 3% | 7% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 4% | 96% | |
| 58 | 6% | 92% | |
| 59 | 8% | 86% | |
| 60 | 10% | 78% | |
| 61 | 12% | 68% | |
| 62 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 63 | 12% | 43% | |
| 64 | 10% | 31% | |
| 65 | 8% | 21% | |
| 66 | 5% | 13% | Last Result |
| 67 | 4% | 8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 4% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98% | |
| 55 | 5% | 97% | |
| 56 | 3% | 92% | |
| 57 | 12% | 89% | |
| 58 | 6% | 78% | |
| 59 | 14% | 71% | |
| 60 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 61 | 10% | 44% | |
| 62 | 15% | 34% | |
| 63 | 4% | 19% | |
| 64 | 8% | 16% | |
| 65 | 3% | 7% | |
| 66 | 2% | 5% | |
| 67 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 4% | 97% | |
| 27 | 8% | 93% | |
| 28 | 11% | 85% | |
| 29 | 16% | 73% | |
| 30 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 31 | 15% | 42% | |
| 32 | 11% | 27% | |
| 33 | 8% | 16% | |
| 34 | 5% | 8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 4% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): profil
- Fieldwork period: 6–10 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 806
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.90%