Opinion Poll by Karmasin Research & Identity, 10–15 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 39.0% 37.1–41.0% 36.5–41.6% 36.0–42.1% 35.1–43.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.1–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.1–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 74 70–78 69–79 68–80 66–81
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 32 29–35 28–36 28–37 26–38
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 32 29–35 28–36 28–37 26–38
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 28 25–31 25–32 24–33 23–34
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 17 15–19 14–20 14–20 13–22

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 1.1% 99.2%  
68 2% 98%  
69 4% 96%  
70 6% 92%  
71 9% 86% Last Result
72 11% 77%  
73 13% 66%  
74 13% 53% Median
75 13% 40%  
76 10% 27%  
77 7% 17%  
78 5% 10%  
79 3% 5%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.7% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 4% 98%  
29 8% 94%  
30 12% 86%  
31 16% 74%  
32 18% 58% Median
33 15% 40%  
34 11% 25%  
35 7% 13%  
36 4% 6%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.6% 0.9%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
41 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
27 2% 99.4%  
28 4% 98%  
29 8% 94%  
30 12% 86%  
31 16% 74%  
32 17% 57% Median
33 16% 40%  
34 11% 24%  
35 7% 13%  
36 4% 6%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.7% 0.9%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 1.0% 99.7%  
24 3% 98.7%  
25 7% 96%  
26 12% 89%  
27 16% 77%  
28 18% 61% Median
29 17% 43%  
30 12% 26%  
31 8% 14% Last Result
32 4% 6%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.9%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 7% 98%  
15 14% 91% Last Result
16 21% 77%  
17 22% 56% Median
18 17% 33%  
19 10% 17%  
20 4% 6%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 123 100% 119–126 117–127 116–128 114–130
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 106 100% 102–110 101–111 99–112 97–113
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 106 100% 102–110 100–111 99–112 97–113
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 102 99.9% 98–106 97–107 96–108 94–110
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 91 38% 87–94 85–96 84–96 82–98
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 81 0% 77–85 76–86 75–87 73–89
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 74 0% 70–78 69–79 68–80 66–81
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 66 64 0% 60–68 59–69 58–70 56–71
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 60 0% 56–64 55–65 55–66 53–68
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 32 0% 29–35 28–36 28–37 26–38

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
113 0.2% 99.8%  
114 0.4% 99.6%  
115 0.8% 99.2%  
116 2% 98%  
117 2% 97%  
118 4% 94%  
119 6% 90%  
120 9% 84%  
121 11% 75%  
122 13% 64%  
123 13% 51% Median
124 13% 38%  
125 10% 25%  
126 7% 15%  
127 4% 8%  
128 2% 4%  
129 1.0% 2%  
130 0.5% 0.7%  
131 0.2% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
98 0.7% 99.4%  
99 1.4% 98.7%  
100 2% 97%  
101 4% 95%  
102 6% 91%  
103 8% 85%  
104 11% 77%  
105 13% 66%  
106 12% 52% Median
107 12% 40%  
108 11% 28%  
109 7% 17%  
110 5% 11%  
111 3% 6%  
112 1.4% 3%  
113 0.7% 1.2%  
114 0.3% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.7%  
98 0.7% 99.4%  
99 2% 98.7%  
100 2% 97%  
101 3% 95%  
102 6% 92%  
103 12% 86%  
104 12% 74%  
105 9% 63%  
106 10% 54% Median
107 17% 44%  
108 11% 27%  
109 6% 16%  
110 4% 10%  
111 3% 6% Last Result
112 2% 3%  
113 0.6% 1.0%  
114 0.2% 0.4%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9% Majority
93 0.3% 99.8%  
94 0.6% 99.5%  
95 1.2% 98.9%  
96 2% 98%  
97 4% 96%  
98 6% 92%  
99 8% 86%  
100 10% 78%  
101 12% 68%  
102 13% 56% Last Result, Median
103 12% 43%  
104 10% 30%  
105 8% 20%  
106 5% 12%  
107 3% 7%  
108 2% 3%  
109 0.9% 1.5%  
110 0.4% 0.6%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.4% 99.8%  
83 0.7% 99.4%  
84 1.4% 98.7%  
85 3% 97%  
86 4% 95% Last Result
87 7% 90%  
88 9% 83%  
89 11% 75%  
90 13% 63%  
91 12% 51% Median
92 12% 38% Majority
93 10% 26%  
94 6% 16%  
95 5% 10%  
96 3% 5%  
97 1.3% 2%  
98 0.7% 1.1%  
99 0.3% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.6% 99.6%  
74 1.2% 99.0%  
75 2% 98%  
76 4% 96%  
77 6% 92%  
78 9% 85%  
79 11% 77%  
80 13% 66%  
81 13% 53% Last Result, Median
82 12% 40%  
83 10% 28%  
84 7% 18%  
85 5% 11%  
86 3% 6%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.7% 1.3%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 1.1% 99.2%  
68 2% 98%  
69 4% 96%  
70 6% 92%  
71 9% 86% Last Result
72 11% 77%  
73 13% 66%  
74 13% 53% Median
75 13% 40%  
76 10% 27%  
77 7% 17%  
78 5% 10%  
79 3% 5%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.7% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.5%  
58 2% 98.9%  
59 2% 97%  
60 6% 94%  
61 9% 88%  
62 8% 79%  
63 16% 71%  
64 14% 55% Median
65 11% 41%  
66 12% 30% Last Result
67 6% 17%  
68 5% 11%  
69 4% 6%  
70 1.2% 3%  
71 0.9% 1.3%  
72 0.3% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.7%  
54 1.3% 99.0%  
55 3% 98%  
56 5% 95%  
57 8% 90%  
58 11% 82%  
59 13% 71%  
60 14% 58% Median
61 13% 45%  
62 11% 31%  
63 8% 20%  
64 6% 12%  
65 3% 6%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.8% 1.4%  
68 0.4% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 4% 98%  
29 8% 94%  
30 12% 86%  
31 16% 74%  
32 18% 58% Median
33 15% 40%  
34 11% 25%  
35 7% 13%  
36 4% 6%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.6% 0.9%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations