Opinion Poll by Market, 4–6 February 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 39.0% | 36.8–41.2% | 36.2–41.9% | 35.7–42.4% | 34.7–43.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 18.9% | 17.3–20.8% | 16.8–21.3% | 16.4–21.8% | 15.6–22.7% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 17.0% | 15.4–18.8% | 14.9–19.3% | 14.5–19.7% | 13.8–20.6% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 15.0% | 13.5–16.7% | 13.1–17.2% | 12.7–17.6% | 12.0–18.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.5–10.8% | 7.2–11.2% | 6.7–11.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 72 | 68–77 | 67–78 | 66–79 | 64–81 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 35 | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 | 29–42 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 31 | 28–35 | 27–36 | 27–36 | 25–38 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 28 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–32 | 22–34 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 16 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 13–20 | 12–22 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 5% | 94% | |
| 69 | 8% | 89% | |
| 70 | 9% | 82% | |
| 71 | 11% | 72% | Last Result |
| 72 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 73 | 12% | 48% | |
| 74 | 11% | 37% | |
| 75 | 9% | 25% | |
| 76 | 7% | 17% | |
| 77 | 4% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 6% | |
| 79 | 2% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 31 | 5% | 96% | |
| 32 | 8% | 92% | |
| 33 | 12% | 84% | |
| 34 | 14% | 72% | |
| 35 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 36 | 14% | 42% | |
| 37 | 11% | 28% | |
| 38 | 7% | 17% | |
| 39 | 5% | 9% | |
| 40 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 41 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 27 | 3% | 98% | |
| 28 | 6% | 94% | |
| 29 | 10% | 88% | |
| 30 | 15% | 78% | |
| 31 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 32 | 15% | 47% | |
| 33 | 13% | 32% | |
| 34 | 9% | 19% | |
| 35 | 5% | 10% | |
| 36 | 3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 24 | 5% | 97% | |
| 25 | 9% | 92% | |
| 26 | 13% | 82% | |
| 27 | 16% | 69% | |
| 28 | 17% | 53% | Median |
| 29 | 15% | 36% | |
| 30 | 10% | 22% | |
| 31 | 6% | 12% | Last Result |
| 32 | 3% | 6% | |
| 33 | 2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 14 | 9% | 95% | |
| 15 | 17% | 86% | Last Result |
| 16 | 21% | 69% | Median |
| 17 | 20% | 48% | |
| 18 | 14% | 28% | |
| 19 | 8% | 14% | |
| 20 | 4% | 6% | |
| 21 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 120 | 100% | 116–124 | 115–125 | 114–126 | 112–128 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 107 | 100% | 103–112 | 102–113 | 101–114 | 99–116 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 104 | 100% | 100–108 | 98–109 | 97–110 | 95–112 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 100 | 99.6% | 96–104 | 95–105 | 94–106 | 92–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 89 | 21% | 85–93 | 84–94 | 83–95 | 81–97 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 83 | 0.4% | 79–87 | 78–88 | 77–89 | 75–91 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 72 | 0% | 68–77 | 67–78 | 66–79 | 64–81 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 66 | 0% | 62–70 | 61–72 | 60–73 | 58–75 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 63 | 0% | 59–67 | 58–68 | 57–69 | 55–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 35 | 0% | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 | 29–42 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 114 | 2% | 98% | |
| 115 | 3% | 97% | |
| 116 | 5% | 94% | |
| 117 | 7% | 89% | |
| 118 | 10% | 81% | |
| 119 | 12% | 72% | Median |
| 120 | 13% | 60% | |
| 121 | 12% | 47% | |
| 122 | 11% | 35% | |
| 123 | 9% | 24% | |
| 124 | 6% | 15% | |
| 125 | 4% | 8% | |
| 126 | 2% | 4% | |
| 127 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 101 | 2% | 98% | |
| 102 | 3% | 97% | |
| 103 | 5% | 94% | |
| 104 | 7% | 89% | |
| 105 | 9% | 82% | |
| 106 | 11% | 73% | |
| 107 | 12% | 62% | Median |
| 108 | 12% | 50% | |
| 109 | 11% | 37% | |
| 110 | 9% | 26% | |
| 111 | 7% | 17% | Last Result |
| 112 | 5% | 11% | |
| 113 | 3% | 6% | |
| 114 | 2% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 97 | 1.4% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 98 | 3% | 97% | |
| 99 | 4% | 95% | |
| 100 | 7% | 91% | |
| 101 | 7% | 84% | |
| 102 | 11% | 77% | |
| 103 | 11% | 65% | Median |
| 104 | 14% | 54% | |
| 105 | 11% | 41% | |
| 106 | 11% | 30% | |
| 107 | 7% | 20% | |
| 108 | 5% | 12% | |
| 109 | 3% | 7% | |
| 110 | 2% | 4% | |
| 111 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 99.6% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 94 | 2% | 98% | |
| 95 | 4% | 96% | |
| 96 | 6% | 92% | |
| 97 | 8% | 87% | |
| 98 | 10% | 79% | |
| 99 | 11% | 69% | |
| 100 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 101 | 12% | 45% | |
| 102 | 10% | 33% | Last Result |
| 103 | 9% | 23% | |
| 104 | 6% | 15% | |
| 105 | 4% | 9% | |
| 106 | 3% | 5% | |
| 107 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 82 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 83 | 2% | 98% | |
| 84 | 4% | 95% | |
| 85 | 6% | 91% | |
| 86 | 8% | 85% | Last Result |
| 87 | 11% | 77% | |
| 88 | 11% | 66% | Median |
| 89 | 12% | 55% | |
| 90 | 12% | 42% | |
| 91 | 9% | 30% | |
| 92 | 8% | 21% | Majority |
| 93 | 6% | 14% | |
| 94 | 4% | 8% | |
| 95 | 2% | 4% | |
| 96 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 76 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 77 | 3% | 98% | |
| 78 | 4% | 95% | |
| 79 | 6% | 91% | |
| 80 | 9% | 85% | |
| 81 | 10% | 77% | Last Result |
| 82 | 12% | 67% | Median |
| 83 | 12% | 55% | |
| 84 | 11% | 42% | |
| 85 | 10% | 31% | |
| 86 | 8% | 21% | |
| 87 | 6% | 13% | |
| 88 | 4% | 8% | |
| 89 | 2% | 4% | |
| 90 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 5% | 94% | |
| 69 | 8% | 89% | |
| 70 | 9% | 82% | |
| 71 | 11% | 72% | Last Result |
| 72 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 73 | 12% | 48% | |
| 74 | 11% | 37% | |
| 75 | 9% | 25% | |
| 76 | 7% | 17% | |
| 77 | 4% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 6% | |
| 79 | 2% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 61 | 3% | 97% | |
| 62 | 5% | 94% | |
| 63 | 7% | 89% | |
| 64 | 9% | 82% | |
| 65 | 12% | 73% | |
| 66 | 12% | 61% | Last Result, Median |
| 67 | 12% | 49% | |
| 68 | 11% | 36% | |
| 69 | 9% | 25% | |
| 70 | 6% | 16% | |
| 71 | 4% | 10% | |
| 72 | 3% | 5% | |
| 73 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 4% | 96% | |
| 59 | 6% | 92% | |
| 60 | 9% | 85% | |
| 61 | 11% | 76% | |
| 62 | 12% | 65% | |
| 63 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 64 | 12% | 40% | |
| 65 | 10% | 28% | |
| 66 | 7% | 19% | |
| 67 | 5% | 11% | |
| 68 | 3% | 6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 31 | 5% | 96% | |
| 32 | 8% | 92% | |
| 33 | 12% | 84% | |
| 34 | 14% | 72% | |
| 35 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 36 | 14% | 42% | |
| 37 | 11% | 28% | |
| 38 | 7% | 17% | |
| 39 | 5% | 9% | |
| 40 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 41 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4–6 February 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 813
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.58%