Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 10–14 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 38.1% 35.9–40.3% 35.3–40.9% 34.8–41.5% 33.7–42.6%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 17.0% 15.4–18.8% 15.0–19.4% 14.6–19.8% 13.9–20.7%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 16.0% 14.5–17.8% 14.0–18.3% 13.7–18.7% 13.0–19.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 15.0% 13.5–16.8% 13.1–17.3% 12.7–17.7% 12.0–18.5%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 10.0% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.2% 7.5–13.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 71 67–76 65–77 64–78 62–81
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 32 28–35 28–36 27–37 25–39
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 30 27–33 26–34 25–35 24–37
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 28 25–31 24–32 23–33 22–35
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 18 16–21 15–22 15–23 14–24

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.7% 99.4%  
64 1.4% 98.8%  
65 2% 97%  
66 4% 95%  
67 5% 91%  
68 8% 85%  
69 9% 78%  
70 10% 69%  
71 11% 58% Last Result, Median
72 11% 47%  
73 9% 36%  
74 8% 27%  
75 7% 19%  
76 5% 12%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.1% 2%  
80 0.6% 1.1%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 1.2% 99.5% Last Result
27 3% 98%  
28 6% 95%  
29 9% 90%  
30 13% 81%  
31 15% 68%  
32 15% 53% Median
33 13% 38%  
34 10% 25%  
35 7% 15%  
36 4% 8%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.1% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.6%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.9% 99.6%  
25 2% 98.7%  
26 5% 96%  
27 9% 91%  
28 12% 83%  
29 15% 70%  
30 16% 55% Median
31 13% 39% Last Result
32 11% 26%  
33 7% 15%  
34 4% 8%  
35 2% 4%  
36 1.0% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.8%  
23 2% 99.1%  
24 4% 97%  
25 8% 93%  
26 12% 85%  
27 15% 73%  
28 16% 58% Median
29 15% 42%  
30 12% 27%  
31 7% 15%  
32 4% 8%  
33 2% 4%  
34 1.0% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 5% 98% Last Result
16 10% 93%  
17 16% 83%  
18 20% 67% Median
19 18% 47%  
20 14% 30%  
21 8% 15%  
22 4% 7%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.7% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 122 100% 116–127 115–128 114–129 111–131
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 103 99.9% 98–108 97–110 95–111 93–113
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 101 99.4% 96–106 95–108 94–109 91–111
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 99 98% 94–104 93–106 92–107 90–109
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 90 32% 85–95 83–96 82–97 80–99
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 78 0% 73–83 72–84 71–85 69–88
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 71 0% 67–76 65–77 64–78 62–81
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 66 60 0% 55–64 54–65 53–67 51–69
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 58 0% 54–62 52–63 52–65 50–67
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 28 0% 25–31 24–32 23–33 22–35

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0.1% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.3% 99.8%  
112 0.6% 99.5% Last Result
113 1.2% 98.9%  
114 2% 98%  
115 3% 96%  
116 5% 93%  
117 6% 88%  
118 7% 82%  
119 8% 75%  
120 9% 67%  
121 9% 59% Median
122 8% 50%  
123 9% 42%  
124 8% 33%  
125 7% 25%  
126 6% 17%  
127 5% 11%  
128 3% 7%  
129 2% 4%  
130 1.1% 2%  
131 0.5% 0.9%  
132 0.2% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.9% Majority
93 0.4% 99.7%  
94 0.7% 99.3%  
95 1.4% 98.6%  
96 2% 97%  
97 4% 95% Last Result
98 5% 92%  
99 6% 87%  
100 8% 81%  
101 9% 73%  
102 9% 64%  
103 10% 55% Median
104 9% 45%  
105 9% 36%  
106 8% 28%  
107 6% 20%  
108 5% 13%  
109 4% 9%  
110 2% 5%  
111 1.4% 3%  
112 0.7% 1.4%  
113 0.4% 0.7%  
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.2% 99.9%  
91 0.3% 99.8%  
92 0.6% 99.4% Majority
93 1.3% 98.8%  
94 2% 98%  
95 3% 95%  
96 4% 92%  
97 6% 88%  
98 8% 82%  
99 9% 75%  
100 10% 66%  
101 9% 56% Median
102 9% 47% Last Result
103 10% 38%  
104 8% 28%  
105 6% 20%  
106 5% 14%  
107 4% 9%  
108 3% 5%  
109 1.3% 3%  
110 0.8% 2%  
111 0.4% 0.8%  
112 0.2% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.3% 99.8%  
90 0.6% 99.5%  
91 1.2% 98.9%  
92 2% 98% Majority
93 3% 96%  
94 4% 93%  
95 6% 89%  
96 8% 83%  
97 8% 75%  
98 9% 67%  
99 10% 58% Median
100 9% 48%  
101 9% 39%  
102 8% 30%  
103 7% 22%  
104 5% 15%  
105 4% 9%  
106 2% 6%  
107 2% 3%  
108 1.0% 2%  
109 0.4% 0.7%  
110 0.2% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.4% 99.7%  
81 0.7% 99.3%  
82 1.4% 98.6%  
83 2% 97%  
84 4% 95%  
85 5% 91%  
86 7% 86% Last Result
87 8% 79%  
88 9% 71%  
89 9% 62% Median
90 10% 52%  
91 10% 42%  
92 8% 32% Majority
93 7% 24%  
94 6% 17%  
95 4% 11%  
96 3% 7%  
97 2% 4%  
98 1.0% 2%  
99 0.6% 1.0%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.5% 99.7%  
70 0.9% 99.2%  
71 2% 98%  
72 3% 97%  
73 4% 94%  
74 6% 90%  
75 7% 84%  
76 10% 77%  
77 10% 67%  
78 10% 57% Median
79 10% 47%  
80 10% 37%  
81 8% 27% Last Result
82 6% 19%  
83 5% 13%  
84 4% 8%  
85 2% 4%  
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.2%  
88 0.4% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.7% 99.4%  
64 1.4% 98.8%  
65 2% 97%  
66 4% 95%  
67 5% 91%  
68 8% 85%  
69 9% 78%  
70 10% 69%  
71 11% 58% Last Result, Median
72 11% 47%  
73 9% 36%  
74 8% 27%  
75 7% 19%  
76 5% 12%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.1% 2%  
80 0.6% 1.1%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 0.8% 99.5%  
53 2% 98.7%  
54 3% 97%  
55 5% 94%  
56 7% 90%  
57 9% 83%  
58 10% 74%  
59 11% 65%  
60 12% 53% Median
61 11% 42%  
62 10% 30%  
63 7% 21%  
64 5% 13%  
65 3% 8%  
66 2% 5% Last Result
67 1.4% 3%  
68 0.7% 1.2%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.7% 99.6%  
51 1.3% 98.9%  
52 3% 98%  
53 4% 95%  
54 6% 91%  
55 8% 85%  
56 10% 77%  
57 11% 66%  
58 12% 55% Median
59 12% 43%  
60 10% 31%  
61 7% 22%  
62 6% 14%  
63 4% 9%  
64 2% 5%  
65 1.4% 3%  
66 0.7% 1.3%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.8%  
23 2% 99.1%  
24 4% 97%  
25 8% 93%  
26 12% 85%  
27 15% 73%  
28 16% 58% Median
29 15% 42%  
30 12% 27%  
31 7% 15%  
32 4% 8%  
33 2% 4%  
34 1.0% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations