Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 11–12 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 40.0% 38.0–42.0% 37.5–42.6% 37.0–43.1% 36.1–44.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.1–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 74 71–78 69–79 69–80 67–82
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 37 34–40 33–41 32–42 31–43
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 31 29–34 28–35 27–36 26–37
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 24 21–26 21–27 20–28 19–29
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 16 14–19 14–19 13–20 12–21

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.7%  
68 1.4% 99.1%  
69 3% 98%  
70 5% 95%  
71 8% 90% Last Result
72 10% 83%  
73 12% 72%  
74 14% 60% Median
75 13% 46%  
76 11% 33%  
77 9% 22%  
78 6% 13%  
79 4% 7%  
80 2% 3%  
81 1.0% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.2%  
33 4% 97%  
34 8% 93%  
35 12% 85%  
36 15% 73%  
37 17% 58% Median
38 16% 41%  
39 10% 25%  
40 7% 15% Last Result
41 4% 7%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.7% 1.1%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.7% Last Result
27 3% 99.0%  
28 5% 96%  
29 13% 91%  
30 12% 78%  
31 21% 66% Median
32 13% 45%  
33 16% 32%  
34 7% 16%  
35 6% 9%  
36 2% 3%  
37 1.1% 1.4%  
38 0.2% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.8%  
20 3% 99.0%  
21 7% 96%  
22 13% 89%  
23 19% 76%  
24 20% 58% Median
25 17% 38%  
26 11% 21%  
27 6% 10%  
28 3% 4%  
29 1.0% 1.4%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
32 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.4%  
14 8% 96%  
15 17% 88% Last Result
16 23% 71% Median
17 20% 48%  
18 16% 27%  
19 7% 11%  
20 3% 5%  
21 0.8% 1.1%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 122 100% 119–126 117–127 117–128 115–129
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 111 100% 108–115 106–116 106–117 104–119
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 106 100% 102–109 101–110 100–111 98–113
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 98 98.8% 94–102 93–103 92–104 91–106
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 91 41% 87–95 86–96 85–97 83–98
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 85 1.2% 81–89 80–90 79–91 77–92
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 74 0% 71–78 69–79 69–80 67–82
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 68 0% 65–72 64–73 63–74 61–76
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 61 0% 57–64 56–66 55–66 54–68
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–42 31–43

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0.2% 99.9%  
115 0.6% 99.6%  
116 1.5% 99.0%  
117 3% 98%  
118 5% 95%  
119 8% 90%  
120 10% 82%  
121 13% 72% Median
122 14% 59%  
123 14% 45%  
124 12% 31%  
125 9% 19%  
126 5% 10%  
127 3% 5%  
128 2% 3%  
129 0.6% 1.0%  
130 0.2% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0.2% 99.9%  
104 0.6% 99.6%  
105 1.4% 99.0%  
106 3% 98%  
107 5% 95%  
108 7% 90%  
109 10% 83%  
110 13% 73%  
111 14% 60% Last Result, Median
112 13% 46%  
113 11% 33%  
114 8% 22%  
115 7% 13%  
116 3% 7%  
117 2% 3%  
118 0.8% 1.4%  
119 0.4% 0.6%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
98 0.5% 99.7%  
99 1.1% 99.2%  
100 2% 98%  
101 4% 96%  
102 7% 92%  
103 9% 86%  
104 11% 76%  
105 13% 66% Median
106 14% 52%  
107 13% 38%  
108 9% 26%  
109 7% 16%  
110 5% 9%  
111 3% 5%  
112 1.0% 2%  
113 0.6% 0.9%  
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.7% 99.5%  
92 2% 98.8% Majority
93 3% 97%  
94 5% 94%  
95 9% 90%  
96 9% 81%  
97 14% 72%  
98 11% 58% Median
99 14% 47%  
100 11% 32%  
101 9% 22%  
102 6% 13% Last Result
103 3% 7%  
104 2% 4%  
105 0.9% 2%  
106 0.5% 0.7%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.7%  
84 1.1% 99.3%  
85 2% 98%  
86 4% 96% Last Result
87 6% 92%  
88 10% 87%  
89 10% 77%  
90 14% 67% Median
91 12% 53%  
92 13% 41% Majority
93 10% 27%  
94 7% 17%  
95 5% 10%  
96 3% 5%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.6% 1.1%  
99 0.3% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.8%  
78 0.9% 99.3%  
79 2% 98%  
80 3% 96%  
81 6% 93% Last Result
82 9% 87%  
83 11% 78%  
84 14% 68% Median
85 11% 53%  
86 14% 42%  
87 9% 28%  
88 9% 19%  
89 5% 10%  
90 3% 6%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.7% 1.2% Majority
93 0.3% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.7%  
68 1.4% 99.1%  
69 3% 98%  
70 5% 95%  
71 8% 90% Last Result
72 10% 83%  
73 12% 72%  
74 14% 60% Median
75 13% 46%  
76 11% 33%  
77 9% 22%  
78 6% 13%  
79 4% 7%  
80 2% 3%  
81 1.0% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.7%  
62 1.2% 99.2%  
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 96%  
65 7% 91%  
66 11% 84% Last Result
67 11% 73%  
68 14% 62% Median
69 14% 48%  
70 12% 34%  
71 9% 22%  
72 6% 13%  
73 4% 8%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.9% 2%  
76 0.4% 0.7%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.7%  
55 2% 99.0%  
56 3% 97%  
57 5% 95%  
58 9% 90%  
59 12% 81%  
60 14% 69%  
61 14% 55% Median
62 13% 41%  
63 10% 28%  
64 8% 18%  
65 5% 10%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.5% 2%  
68 0.6% 1.0%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.2%  
33 4% 97%  
34 8% 93%  
35 12% 85%  
36 15% 73%  
37 17% 58% Median
38 16% 41%  
39 10% 25%  
40 7% 15% Last Result
41 4% 7%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.7% 1.1%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations