Opinion Poll by Unique Research, 9–13 March 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 39.0% | 36.8–41.2% | 36.2–41.8% | 35.7–42.4% | 34.6–43.5% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 17.0% | 15.4–18.8% | 15.0–19.3% | 14.6–19.8% | 13.8–20.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 16.0% | 14.5–17.8% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.7–18.7% | 12.9–19.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 16.0% | 14.5–17.8% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.7–18.7% | 12.9–19.6% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.5–10.8% | 7.2–11.2% | 6.7–11.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 74 | 69–78 | 68–79 | 67–80 | 65–82 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 32 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 27–37 | 26–39 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 | 24–37 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 | 24–37 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 17 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 12–22 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | |
| 69 | 5% | 94% | |
| 70 | 7% | 89% | |
| 71 | 9% | 82% | Last Result |
| 72 | 10% | 73% | |
| 73 | 12% | 62% | |
| 74 | 11% | 50% | Median |
| 75 | 11% | 39% | |
| 76 | 9% | 28% | |
| 77 | 7% | 19% | |
| 78 | 5% | 11% | |
| 79 | 3% | 7% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 27 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 5% | 97% | |
| 29 | 8% | 92% | |
| 30 | 12% | 83% | |
| 31 | 15% | 71% | Last Result |
| 32 | 16% | 56% | Median |
| 33 | 14% | 41% | |
| 34 | 11% | 27% | |
| 35 | 7% | 16% | |
| 36 | 4% | 8% | |
| 37 | 2% | 4% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 4% | 97% | |
| 27 | 7% | 93% | |
| 28 | 12% | 86% | |
| 29 | 15% | 74% | |
| 30 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 31 | 15% | 43% | |
| 32 | 11% | 28% | |
| 33 | 8% | 17% | |
| 34 | 5% | 9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 4% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 27 | 7% | 93% | |
| 28 | 12% | 86% | |
| 29 | 15% | 74% | |
| 30 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 31 | 15% | 43% | |
| 32 | 11% | 28% | |
| 33 | 8% | 17% | |
| 34 | 4% | 8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 4% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 14 | 8% | 96% | |
| 15 | 14% | 89% | Last Result |
| 16 | 20% | 75% | |
| 17 | 20% | 54% | Median |
| 18 | 16% | 35% | |
| 19 | 10% | 18% | |
| 20 | 5% | 8% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 121 | 100% | 116–125 | 115–126 | 113–127 | 111–129 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 106 | 100% | 101–110 | 100–111 | 99–112 | 96–114 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 104 | 100% | 99–108 | 98–109 | 97–110 | 94–112 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 104 | 100% | 99–108 | 98–109 | 97–110 | 94–112 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 90 | 37% | 86–95 | 85–96 | 84–97 | 81–99 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 77 | 0% | 73–81 | 71–82 | 70–84 | 68–86 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 74 | 0% | 69–78 | 68–79 | 67–80 | 65–82 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 71 | 62 | 0% | 58–66 | 57–67 | 56–68 | 54–70 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 66 | 60 | 0% | 56–64 | 55–65 | 54–66 | 52–68 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 30 | 0% | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 | 24–37 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 113 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 114 | 2% | 97% | |
| 115 | 3% | 95% | |
| 116 | 4% | 92% | |
| 117 | 7% | 88% | |
| 118 | 8% | 81% | |
| 119 | 11% | 73% | |
| 120 | 12% | 62% | |
| 121 | 11% | 50% | Median |
| 122 | 11% | 39% | |
| 123 | 9% | 27% | |
| 124 | 7% | 18% | |
| 125 | 5% | 11% | |
| 126 | 3% | 6% | |
| 127 | 2% | 3% | |
| 128 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 98 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 99 | 2% | 98% | |
| 100 | 3% | 96% | |
| 101 | 5% | 92% | |
| 102 | 7% | 88% | Last Result |
| 103 | 8% | 81% | |
| 104 | 11% | 73% | |
| 105 | 12% | 62% | |
| 106 | 11% | 50% | Median |
| 107 | 11% | 39% | |
| 108 | 9% | 28% | |
| 109 | 7% | 19% | |
| 110 | 5% | 12% | |
| 111 | 3% | 7% | |
| 112 | 2% | 4% | |
| 113 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 97 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 98 | 3% | 96% | |
| 99 | 4% | 93% | |
| 100 | 6% | 88% | |
| 101 | 8% | 82% | |
| 102 | 10% | 74% | |
| 103 | 11% | 64% | |
| 104 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 105 | 10% | 40% | |
| 106 | 9% | 30% | |
| 107 | 8% | 20% | |
| 108 | 5% | 13% | |
| 109 | 3% | 8% | |
| 110 | 2% | 4% | |
| 111 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 97 | 2% | 98% | |
| 98 | 3% | 96% | |
| 99 | 5% | 93% | |
| 100 | 6% | 88% | |
| 101 | 8% | 82% | |
| 102 | 10% | 74% | |
| 103 | 12% | 64% | |
| 104 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 105 | 10% | 40% | |
| 106 | 10% | 30% | |
| 107 | 7% | 20% | |
| 108 | 6% | 13% | |
| 109 | 3% | 7% | |
| 110 | 2% | 4% | |
| 111 | 1.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 112 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 83 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 4% | 95% | |
| 86 | 5% | 92% | Last Result |
| 87 | 7% | 87% | |
| 88 | 9% | 79% | |
| 89 | 11% | 70% | |
| 90 | 11% | 60% | |
| 91 | 12% | 49% | Median |
| 92 | 10% | 37% | Majority |
| 93 | 8% | 26% | |
| 94 | 7% | 18% | |
| 95 | 5% | 11% | |
| 96 | 3% | 6% | |
| 97 | 2% | 3% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 71 | 2% | 97% | |
| 72 | 4% | 95% | |
| 73 | 6% | 91% | |
| 74 | 8% | 85% | |
| 75 | 10% | 77% | |
| 76 | 11% | 67% | |
| 77 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 78 | 12% | 44% | |
| 79 | 10% | 33% | |
| 80 | 8% | 23% | |
| 81 | 6% | 15% | Last Result |
| 82 | 4% | 9% | |
| 83 | 2% | 5% | |
| 84 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | |
| 69 | 5% | 94% | |
| 70 | 7% | 89% | |
| 71 | 9% | 82% | Last Result |
| 72 | 10% | 73% | |
| 73 | 12% | 62% | |
| 74 | 11% | 50% | Median |
| 75 | 11% | 39% | |
| 76 | 9% | 28% | |
| 77 | 7% | 19% | |
| 78 | 5% | 11% | |
| 79 | 3% | 7% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 4% | 96% | |
| 58 | 5% | 92% | |
| 59 | 8% | 87% | |
| 60 | 10% | 79% | |
| 61 | 12% | 69% | |
| 62 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 63 | 12% | 45% | |
| 64 | 10% | 33% | |
| 65 | 8% | 22% | |
| 66 | 6% | 14% | |
| 67 | 4% | 8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 4% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98% | |
| 55 | 3% | 96% | |
| 56 | 5% | 93% | |
| 57 | 8% | 88% | |
| 58 | 9% | 80% | |
| 59 | 13% | 71% | |
| 60 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 61 | 12% | 46% | |
| 62 | 11% | 34% | |
| 63 | 8% | 23% | |
| 64 | 6% | 15% | |
| 65 | 4% | 9% | |
| 66 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 67 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 4% | 97% | |
| 27 | 7% | 93% | |
| 28 | 12% | 86% | |
| 29 | 15% | 74% | |
| 30 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 31 | 15% | 43% | |
| 32 | 11% | 28% | |
| 33 | 8% | 17% | |
| 34 | 5% | 9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 4% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–13 March 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 811
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.59%