Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 24–31 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 43.0% 41.0–45.0% 40.4–45.6% 40.0–46.1% 39.0–47.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 80 76–84 75–85 74–86 72–87
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 35 32–38 31–39 31–40 29–41
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 35 32–38 31–39 31–40 29–41
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 20 18–23 17–23 17–24 16–25
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 13 11–15 10–15 10–16 9–17

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 0.8% 99.4%  
74 2% 98.6%  
75 4% 97%  
76 6% 93%  
77 9% 88%  
78 11% 79%  
79 13% 68%  
80 14% 55% Median
81 12% 41%  
82 10% 29%  
83 8% 18%  
84 5% 11%  
85 3% 5%  
86 2% 3%  
87 0.7% 1.2%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.4%  
31 4% 98%  
32 7% 94%  
33 11% 87%  
34 15% 76%  
35 17% 61% Median
36 16% 44%  
37 13% 28%  
38 7% 14%  
39 4% 7%  
40 2% 3% Last Result
41 0.8% 1.2%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100% Last Result
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 1.4% 99.4%  
31 4% 98%  
32 8% 94%  
33 11% 87%  
34 16% 75%  
35 17% 60% Median
36 16% 43%  
37 12% 27%  
38 7% 15%  
39 4% 7%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.8% 1.2%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 5% 98%  
18 11% 93%  
19 18% 82%  
20 22% 64% Median
21 18% 42%  
22 13% 24%  
23 7% 11%  
24 3% 4%  
25 1.0% 1.3%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.0% 99.9%  
10 5% 98.9%  
11 15% 94%  
12 24% 79%  
13 25% 55% Median
14 17% 30%  
15 8% 12% Last Result
16 3% 4%  
17 0.8% 1.0%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 128 100% 124–131 123–132 122–133 121–135
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 115 100% 111–119 110–120 109–121 108–122
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 115 100% 111–119 110–120 109–121 108–122
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 100 99.8% 96–104 95–105 94–106 92–108
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 93 65% 89–96 88–97 87–98 85–100
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 83 0.2% 79–87 78–88 77–89 75–91
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 80 0% 76–84 75–85 74–86 72–87
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 66 70 0% 67–74 65–75 65–76 63–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 55 0% 52–59 51–60 50–61 48–62
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 35 0% 32–38 31–39 31–40 29–41

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0.1% 100%  
120 0.3% 99.9%  
121 0.8% 99.5%  
122 2% 98.8%  
123 3% 97%  
124 6% 94%  
125 9% 88%  
126 12% 79%  
127 14% 67%  
128 15% 53% Median
129 13% 38%  
130 10% 25%  
131 7% 15%  
132 4% 8%  
133 2% 4%  
134 0.9% 1.5%  
135 0.4% 0.5%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100% Last Result
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.3% 99.8%  
108 0.8% 99.5%  
109 2% 98.8%  
110 3% 97%  
111 5% 94%  
112 8% 89%  
113 11% 80%  
114 13% 70%  
115 14% 56% Median
116 13% 42%  
117 11% 29%  
118 8% 19%  
119 5% 11%  
120 3% 5%  
121 1.5% 3%  
122 0.7% 1.1%  
123 0.3% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.3% 99.8%  
108 0.8% 99.5%  
109 2% 98.7%  
110 3% 97%  
111 5% 94% Last Result
112 9% 89%  
113 12% 80%  
114 12% 69%  
115 12% 57% Median
116 14% 44%  
117 12% 31%  
118 8% 18%  
119 5% 10%  
120 3% 6%  
121 2% 3%  
122 0.7% 1.1%  
123 0.3% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.8% Majority
93 0.8% 99.5%  
94 2% 98.7%  
95 3% 97%  
96 5% 94%  
97 8% 89%  
98 11% 81%  
99 12% 70%  
100 14% 58% Median
101 13% 44%  
102 11% 31% Last Result
103 8% 20%  
104 6% 12%  
105 3% 6%  
106 2% 3%  
107 0.8% 1.4%  
108 0.3% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.5% 99.7%  
86 1.1% 99.2% Last Result
87 2% 98%  
88 4% 96%  
89 7% 92%  
90 9% 85%  
91 11% 76%  
92 14% 65% Majority
93 13% 51% Median
94 13% 38%  
95 9% 25%  
96 7% 16%  
97 4% 9%  
98 3% 5%  
99 1.3% 2%  
100 0.6% 0.9%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.8% 99.5%  
77 2% 98.6%  
78 3% 97%  
79 6% 94%  
80 8% 88%  
81 11% 80% Last Result
82 13% 69%  
83 14% 56% Median
84 12% 42%  
85 11% 30%  
86 8% 19%  
87 5% 11%  
88 3% 6%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.8% 1.3%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2% Majority
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 0.8% 99.4%  
74 2% 98.6%  
75 4% 97%  
76 6% 93%  
77 9% 88%  
78 11% 79%  
79 13% 68%  
80 14% 55% Median
81 12% 41%  
82 10% 29%  
83 8% 18%  
84 5% 11%  
85 3% 5%  
86 2% 3%  
87 0.7% 1.2%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.8% 99.8%  
64 0.9% 99.0%  
65 3% 98%  
66 4% 95% Last Result
67 7% 90%  
68 12% 83%  
69 10% 71%  
70 18% 61% Median
71 9% 44%  
72 16% 35%  
73 5% 19%  
74 8% 14%  
75 2% 6%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.8% 1.4%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 0.9% 99.5%  
50 2% 98.5%  
51 4% 96%  
52 7% 92%  
53 10% 85%  
54 13% 75%  
55 15% 62% Median
56 14% 47%  
57 12% 33%  
58 9% 21%  
59 6% 12%  
60 3% 6%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.8% 1.2%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.4%  
31 4% 98%  
32 7% 94%  
33 11% 87%  
34 15% 76%  
35 17% 61% Median
36 16% 44%  
37 13% 28%  
38 7% 14%  
39 4% 7%  
40 2% 3% Last Result
41 0.8% 1.2%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations