Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 24–31 March 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 43.0% | 41.0–45.0% | 40.4–45.6% | 40.0–46.1% | 39.0–47.1% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.4% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.4% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 80 | 76–84 | 75–85 | 74–86 | 72–87 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 35 | 32–38 | 31–39 | 31–40 | 29–41 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 35 | 32–38 | 31–39 | 31–40 | 29–41 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 20 | 18–23 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 13 | 11–15 | 10–15 | 10–16 | 9–17 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 75 | 4% | 97% | |
| 76 | 6% | 93% | |
| 77 | 9% | 88% | |
| 78 | 11% | 79% | |
| 79 | 13% | 68% | |
| 80 | 14% | 55% | Median |
| 81 | 12% | 41% | |
| 82 | 10% | 29% | |
| 83 | 8% | 18% | |
| 84 | 5% | 11% | |
| 85 | 3% | 5% | |
| 86 | 2% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 31 | 4% | 98% | |
| 32 | 7% | 94% | |
| 33 | 11% | 87% | |
| 34 | 15% | 76% | |
| 35 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 36 | 16% | 44% | |
| 37 | 13% | 28% | |
| 38 | 7% | 14% | |
| 39 | 4% | 7% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 31 | 4% | 98% | |
| 32 | 8% | 94% | |
| 33 | 11% | 87% | |
| 34 | 16% | 75% | |
| 35 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 36 | 16% | 43% | |
| 37 | 12% | 27% | |
| 38 | 7% | 15% | |
| 39 | 4% | 7% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 17 | 5% | 98% | |
| 18 | 11% | 93% | |
| 19 | 18% | 82% | |
| 20 | 22% | 64% | Median |
| 21 | 18% | 42% | |
| 22 | 13% | 24% | |
| 23 | 7% | 11% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 11 | 15% | 94% | |
| 12 | 24% | 79% | |
| 13 | 25% | 55% | Median |
| 14 | 17% | 30% | |
| 15 | 8% | 12% | Last Result |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 128 | 100% | 124–131 | 123–132 | 122–133 | 121–135 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 115 | 100% | 111–119 | 110–120 | 109–121 | 108–122 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 115 | 100% | 111–119 | 110–120 | 109–121 | 108–122 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 100 | 99.8% | 96–104 | 95–105 | 94–106 | 92–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 93 | 65% | 89–96 | 88–97 | 87–98 | 85–100 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 83 | 0.2% | 79–87 | 78–88 | 77–89 | 75–91 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 80 | 0% | 76–84 | 75–85 | 74–86 | 72–87 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 66 | 70 | 0% | 67–74 | 65–75 | 65–76 | 63–78 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 55 | 0% | 52–59 | 51–60 | 50–61 | 48–62 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 35 | 0% | 32–38 | 31–39 | 31–40 | 29–41 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 122 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 123 | 3% | 97% | |
| 124 | 6% | 94% | |
| 125 | 9% | 88% | |
| 126 | 12% | 79% | |
| 127 | 14% | 67% | |
| 128 | 15% | 53% | Median |
| 129 | 13% | 38% | |
| 130 | 10% | 25% | |
| 131 | 7% | 15% | |
| 132 | 4% | 8% | |
| 133 | 2% | 4% | |
| 134 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 109 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 110 | 3% | 97% | |
| 111 | 5% | 94% | |
| 112 | 8% | 89% | |
| 113 | 11% | 80% | |
| 114 | 13% | 70% | |
| 115 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 116 | 13% | 42% | |
| 117 | 11% | 29% | |
| 118 | 8% | 19% | |
| 119 | 5% | 11% | |
| 120 | 3% | 5% | |
| 121 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 109 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 110 | 3% | 97% | |
| 111 | 5% | 94% | Last Result |
| 112 | 9% | 89% | |
| 113 | 12% | 80% | |
| 114 | 12% | 69% | |
| 115 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 116 | 14% | 44% | |
| 117 | 12% | 31% | |
| 118 | 8% | 18% | |
| 119 | 5% | 10% | |
| 120 | 3% | 6% | |
| 121 | 2% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 95 | 3% | 97% | |
| 96 | 5% | 94% | |
| 97 | 8% | 89% | |
| 98 | 11% | 81% | |
| 99 | 12% | 70% | |
| 100 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 101 | 13% | 44% | |
| 102 | 11% | 31% | Last Result |
| 103 | 8% | 20% | |
| 104 | 6% | 12% | |
| 105 | 3% | 6% | |
| 106 | 2% | 3% | |
| 107 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 86 | 1.1% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 87 | 2% | 98% | |
| 88 | 4% | 96% | |
| 89 | 7% | 92% | |
| 90 | 9% | 85% | |
| 91 | 11% | 76% | |
| 92 | 14% | 65% | Majority |
| 93 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 94 | 13% | 38% | |
| 95 | 9% | 25% | |
| 96 | 7% | 16% | |
| 97 | 4% | 9% | |
| 98 | 3% | 5% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 78 | 3% | 97% | |
| 79 | 6% | 94% | |
| 80 | 8% | 88% | |
| 81 | 11% | 80% | Last Result |
| 82 | 13% | 69% | |
| 83 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 84 | 12% | 42% | |
| 85 | 11% | 30% | |
| 86 | 8% | 19% | |
| 87 | 5% | 11% | |
| 88 | 3% | 6% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 75 | 4% | 97% | |
| 76 | 6% | 93% | |
| 77 | 9% | 88% | |
| 78 | 11% | 79% | |
| 79 | 13% | 68% | |
| 80 | 14% | 55% | Median |
| 81 | 12% | 41% | |
| 82 | 10% | 29% | |
| 83 | 8% | 18% | |
| 84 | 5% | 11% | |
| 85 | 3% | 5% | |
| 86 | 2% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 65 | 3% | 98% | |
| 66 | 4% | 95% | Last Result |
| 67 | 7% | 90% | |
| 68 | 12% | 83% | |
| 69 | 10% | 71% | |
| 70 | 18% | 61% | Median |
| 71 | 9% | 44% | |
| 72 | 16% | 35% | |
| 73 | 5% | 19% | |
| 74 | 8% | 14% | |
| 75 | 2% | 6% | |
| 76 | 2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 51 | 4% | 96% | |
| 52 | 7% | 92% | |
| 53 | 10% | 85% | |
| 54 | 13% | 75% | |
| 55 | 15% | 62% | Median |
| 56 | 14% | 47% | |
| 57 | 12% | 33% | |
| 58 | 9% | 21% | |
| 59 | 6% | 12% | |
| 60 | 3% | 6% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 31 | 4% | 98% | |
| 32 | 7% | 94% | |
| 33 | 11% | 87% | |
| 34 | 15% | 76% | |
| 35 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 36 | 16% | 44% | |
| 37 | 13% | 28% | |
| 38 | 7% | 14% | |
| 39 | 4% | 7% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 24–31 March 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.69%